Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

Just make sure you do not have Wxman57 come give a pep talk to the mets at the PWC. Shoot, we will never ever see snow again. LOL

Too late - did that last Wednesday.

It's true. You saw the results of that ... even if it lasted just 24 hours. He almost turned me into a Heat Miser. The force is strong in Wxman57.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

It seems the skies are thickening in NoTex again, temps still holding at 36 and dew point at 28.

[MississippiWx]

Wxman,

Do you have a precip map for the Euro at 48 hours?

[orangeblood]

Check out the MASSIVE High Pressure forecast by the Euro in 10 days over the Arctic Circle....The PV over North America seems to break off a piece of that High every 2-3 days. I wonder if we'll see the whole thing collapse down into this part of the world at some point over the next few weeks???

[wxman57]

Wxman,

Do you have a precip map for the Euro at 48 hours?

Looking at it now. It has a narrow band (maybe 50 miles wide) of snow amounts from a trace to 1/4" from east-central Louisiana (east of Alexandria extending NE to the NE corner of Mississippi. It's north of Hattiesburg.

[MississippiWx]

Wxman,

Do you have a precip map for the Euro at 48 hours?

Looking at it now. It has a narrow band (maybe 50 miles wide) of snow amounts from a trace to 1/4" from east-central Louisiana (east of Alexandria extending NE to the NE corner of Mississippi. It's north of Hattiesburg.

Thank you. Hope it trends south or more precip. Euro is pretty cold now with the upper low coming right over the top of me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Check out the MASSIVE High Pressure forecast by the Euro in 10 days over the Arctic Circle....The PV over North America seems to break off a piece of that High every 2-3 days. I wonder if we'll see the whole thing collapse down into this part of the world at some point over the next few weeks???

Well to my knowledge it will go somewhere, sometime.

[uhvjaguars22]

Wxman do you think there will be enough moisture to see a few sleet pellets tonight in victoria

[vbhoutex]

Im still at 36.7F at the house here. Doesnt look like we will make our high temp.

35.8f here at my house. Nope, not even going to approach the progged high temp today!! Highest I have seen so far today is 36.5f. Question is what will we see in the am? Is it going to be too dry, are we going to get mixed precip, are we going to see winter precip only, or just a COLD RAIN?

[wxman57]

Wxman do you think there will be enough moisture to see a few sleet pellets tonight in victoria

That's questionable.

[wxman57]

I see the 12Z Euro is in through next Thursday. It backed off on the cold for Texas again and now agrees with the GFS in no freeze for SE TX next week. Quiet a warm-up vs. the 00Z run.

[Kludge]

There is.... NO WAY this low will cross the state dry. I just dont see it. Again, read the sig. Im no professional met. I have a finance degree and am just a weather nut that follows the weather but come on now. No chance. I have never seen it happen. Maybe im wrong and some of you can enlighten me, but even within the last 5 years we have had a couple of cold core lows bring 'plenty' of snow for us here in houston alone.

Just look at today. I believe the same Low is the one pulling the moisture up from the STJ.

I tend to agree with you, and wanted to pull your ideas forward for further discussion. The models have not been handling the moisture very well in the short term here lately, and compounded with their traditional poor handling of closed upper lows moving across Texas, I would think things are primed for a real bust tomorrow (Wed) morning (just my nonprofessional opinion).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im still at 36.7F at the house here. Doesnt look like we will make our high temp.

35.8f here at my house. Nope, not even going to approach the progged high temp today!! Highest I have seen so far today is 36.5f. Question is what will we see in the am? Is it going to be too dry, are we going to get mixed precip, are we going to see winter precip only, or just a COLD RAIN?

Im over this cold rain. Its nice since it feels fresh outside, but knowing we are so close to frozen precip is quite frustrating.

[Kludge]

Wxman do you think there will be enough moisture to see a few sleet pellets tonight in victoria

That's questionable.

I'm thinking that's why he questioned it.

[wxman57]

Wxman do you think there will be enough moisture to see a few sleet pellets tonight in victoria

That's questionable.

I'm thinking that's why he questioned it.

Doubtful, then?

[uhvjaguars22]

I remember christmas 04 when we were supposed to get 20 % chance flurries that night , and guess what ended up being a record breaking night where no meteorologist could describe what happened, 20 percent= 12 inches blizzard conditions, so nothings impossible

[Palmer divide shadow]

Orangeblood thats exactly what nwtx said he thought may happen.The first attack would go east while we would see a massive hp just north of Alaska entering the picture soon after.

[dhweather]

I see the 12Z Euro is in through next Thursday. It backed off on the cold for Texas again and now agrees with the GFS in no freeze for SE TX next week. Quiet a warm-up vs. the 00Z run.

Hence, never trust models beyond 3-4 days.


They will probably do this 5-6 more times between now and then.

[wxman57]

I see the 12Z Euro is in through next Thursday. It backed off on the cold for Texas again and now agrees with the GFS in no freeze for SE TX next week. Quiet a warm-up vs. the 00Z run.

Hence, never trust models beyond 3-4 days.


They will probably do this 5-6 more times between now and then.

Right. Unless, that is, they predict snow for Texas 15 days from now.

[dhweather]

Or a Cat 5 entering the Gulf.