Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Low level cold will be there all guidance has -EPO tank, it doesn't fail. Thats actually high confidence, its the AO which we need to lower to Slow the flow so these storms aren't flattened and weaken as they cross the southern plains.

[wxman57]

But below normal temperatures (even low 30's which is not extreme cold) can produce interesting weather sir. Just sayin!!

Oh, sure, low 30s can cause problems. The current GFS run doesn't indicate freezing temps across most of Texas in the long range, but the GFS has been known to be in error in the extended range before. Meanwhile, Portastorm and I are looking forward to the warm-up this weekend through Tuesday. Right, Portastorm?

[Portastorm]

But below normal temperatures (even low 30's which is not extreme cold) can produce interesting weather sir. Just sayin!!

Oh, sure, low 30s can cause problems. The current GFS run doesn't indicate freezing temps across most of Texas in the long range, but the GFS has been known to be in error in the extended range before. Meanwhile, Portastorm and I are looking forward to the warm-up this weekend through Tuesday. Right, Portastorm?

Absolutely! All of this cold, cloudy, dreary weather is depressing. I want the sunshine back and temps warming above average. The weekend cannot get here soon enough.

[Texas Snowman]

But below normal temperatures (even low 30's which is not extreme cold) can produce interesting weather sir. Just sayin!!

Oh, sure, low 30s can cause problems. The current GFS run doesn't indicate freezing temps across most of Texas in the long range, but the GFS has been known to be in error in the extended range before. Meanwhile, Portastorm and I are looking forward to the warm-up this weekend through Tuesday. Right, Portastorm?

Absolutely! All of this cold, cloudy, dreary weather is depressing. I want the sunshine back and temps warming above average. The weekend cannot get here soon enough.

Ok, enough is enough. Snap out of it Portastorm!!!!

Whatever the bet was, you've more than paid it off.

If you don't become the same cold-loving, snow-loving Portastorm we all know and love soon, I feel pretty confident that there will be a massive protest staged at the PWC headquarters soon!

[Ntxw]

Don't fear Texas Snowman, in absence of our fearless cold mongering leader all forecasting and press updates have been deferred to the North Texas branch and spokesman (yourself!) Until the bet is over. In spite of trying to recover from the now infamous noncatch catch we are working to restore PWC services as soon as possible...

[gboudx]

Ok, enough is enough. Snap out of it Portastorm!!!!

Whatever the bet was, you've more than paid it off.

He has about 1.5 weeks left on his bet. And the bet was NOT with wxman57. It was with Lucy and he whiffed.

[Tireman4]

But below normal temperatures (even low 30's which is not extreme cold) can produce interesting weather sir. Just sayin!!

Oh, sure, low 30s can cause problems. The current GFS run doesn't indicate freezing temps across most of Texas in the long range, but the GFS has been known to be in error in the extended range before. Meanwhile, Portastorm and I are looking forward to the warm-up this weekend through Tuesday. Right, Portastorm?

Absolutely! All of this cold, cloudy, dreary weather is depressing. I want the sunshine back and temps warming above average. The weekend cannot get here soon enough.

Oh now sir...you are just taunting him. My gracious. I gotta go run to get this sight from my eyes. Porta on the Death Star. Nooooooo!

[Tireman4]

Larry Cosgrove is talking about the Euro on Facebook...something interesting going on?

All I have to say about today's 12z model runs is:

That ECMWF ensemble package is a thing of beauty isn't it? YES!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST WED JAN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT...WITH VERY LOW QPFS EXPECTED.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO ARE TIRED OF THE CLOUDY AND COLD
WEATHER IS THAT THAT ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...A STRANGE
GOLDEN ORB WILL BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. I THINK THAT
IT IS CALLED THE SUN...BUT IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE MOST OF
US HAVE SEEN IT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO 50S
AREA WIDE WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK THAT MOST
AREAS HAVE GOTTEN THIS WARM. /THE SUN DID BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY ALLOWING THEM TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S./ THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY...AND 60S AREA WIDE
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

I need to run the mower over the front and back so this will be a good time to do it.

[gboudx]

I need to run the mower over the front and back so this will be a good time to do it.

And I've had it up to here with these damn rickets.

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove is talking about the Euro on Facebook...something interesting going on?

All I have to say about today's 12z model runs is:

That ECMWF ensemble package is a thing of beauty isn't it? YES!

Its about severe as they can show as an ensemble anomaly wise for the eastern US

[opticsguy]

The golden orb. Us DFW VFR pilots have had 4 days since the end of November with clear skies, but two of them had winds howling over 40 kts, so those don't count. My garden doesn't look any different than it did at Thanksgiving, except the aphids have died, finally.

[hriverajr]

If I recall portastorm agreed to change his avatar, not to become a lover of heat

[Ntxw]

GFS has a mean blizzard for the Panhandle and OK, and a nice looking Nor'Easter for New England.

This is for Thursday and Friday next week.

This storm is becoming consistent on most of the guidance, may be one of those we track/model watch for days and days. If we indeed get the -AO, perhaps we may get our first "blizzard" in a while in the southern plains has some merit to finally accompany an arctic front. Channeling my inner Portastorm for colorful maps and long range threats!

[gboudx]

I'm encouraged to see McCauley mentioning late next week this early.

Significant moisture prospects remain at zero through early next week. Late next week, however, we will have something to talk about. There is growing evidence of a significant storm system that will move into Texas late next week bringing a variety of precipitation to much of the state. More details to come!

[amawea]

I'm wondering if there having some kind of trouble with the latest GFS model run as the NOAA state sites haven't updated their forecast discussions or the zone forecast since 3am this morning. I checked Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas and they are all way past due.

[orangeblood]

GFS has a mean blizzard for the Panhandle and OK, and a nice looking Nor'Easter for New England.

This is for Thursday and Friday next week.

This storm is becoming consistent on most of the guidance, may be one of those we track/model watch for days and days. If we indeed get the -AO, perhaps we may get our first "blizzard" in a while in the southern plains has some merit to finally accompany an arctic front. Channeling my inner Portastorm for colorful maps and long range threats!

Also of note, it appears for the 1st time this winter the GFS has the 850 freezing line further south than the 10 meter freezing line - meaning that we are finally getting some deeper/colder airmasses into the pattern....increasing chances for snow vs. ice

[gboudx]

I'm wondering if there having some kind of trouble with the latest GFS model run as the NOAA state sites haven't updated their forecast discussions or the zone forecast since 3am this morning. I checked Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas and they are all way past due.

Are you referring to the NWS AFD's? I see where it's been updated this afternoon for at least DFW and Austin.

[amawea]

I'm wondering if there having some kind of trouble with the latest GFS model run as the NOAA state sites haven't updated their forecast discussions or the zone forecast since 3am this morning. I checked Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas and they are all way past due.

Are you referring to the NWS AFD's? I see where it's been updated this afternoon for at least DFW and Austin.

It's not updated on the graphics version. I see what you mean if I go to the NOAA site, but my saved link on the graphics version where you view your state and click the buttons isn't updated.

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to say were are definitely going to get a winter storm/blizzard late next week, only Because I'm supposed to travel to San Antonio on Saturday for the PAX South event.

P.S I'm hoping jinxing myself, but now I might be jinxing my jinx Oh well I guess it's a win win, Either I get a snow storm, or I get to go to PAX South and meet my friends from far away.