ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[JaxGator]

although the deep BAM shifted west again.

Isn't that one of the models the NHC uses for the track?

well they typically use a multi model consensus.

True, they do and the BAM has been around for a long time. Overall though, does the NHC put any weight on it in along with the model consensus? Not liking that west trend but it can change.

[Tak5]

Thing we still have to watch for is this upper low that is supposed to form in the eastern gulf which accelerates it north without that a much more gradual turn wnw then nw easily making into the gulf would be quite likely.

When should we see this upper low form?

[stormlover2013]

Bam is worse than CMC and navgem model

[Aric Dunn]

Bam is worse than CMC and navgem model

Not in the deep tropics like this.

[tolakram]

All the players on the field at the moment.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[sma10]

UKMO track at the moment seems the best match for the SW dive we are seeing Matthew take. Does make you wonder whether the high is stronger than predicted. Happens a lot...famously Katrina did a similar unexpected dive (though this one was better forecasted overall.)

The UK initial track is not going to verify. It brings Matthew all the way down onto that little "knob" island of Colombia. Current motion does not indicate this will happen.

[Aric Dunn]

Thing we still have to watch for is this upper low that is supposed to form in the eastern gulf which accelerates it north without that a much more gradual turn wnw then nw easily making into the gulf would be quite likely.

When should we see this upper low form?

roughly 48 hours.

[toad strangler]

The money spent on the phenomenal "upgrades" sure paid off this season .

To be fair, it's better to look at all the model trends as a whole than just specific models. The spread is large, but this is a complex set up, even after it decides to make the turn.

I am honestly only talking about the credibility of them all. We used to have many reliable models and if this were 2015 and models showed a path like this I would be more confident. But after bust after bust I am not 110% sold on the path of this yet.

Modeling in general has never been reliable enough to actually take their forecasts verbatim. And really, that's not the reason for analyzing them. They are a GUIDE. A tool. Not a forecast machine.

[chaser1]

Thing we still have to watch for is this upper low that is supposed to form in the eastern gulf which accelerates it north without that a much more gradual turn wnw then nw easily making into the gulf would be quite likely.

When should we see this upper low form?

roughly 48 hours.

Of course, one other factor that would muck up a whole lot of Florida Chamber of Commerce efforts would be if Matthew were to continue on a more or less 270 track at the present speed and not slow down until reaching a point just a few degrees further west as well.

[sma10]

Bam is worse than CMC and navgem model

The BAMs aren't really referenced any more by NHC in their discussion, they have been over taken by the more sophisticated modern models.

Personally, I don't look at them for track --- however, I do look at them for trend. I see what their general "thinking" is. Since Matthew is a deep system it is interesting that the BAMD suggests a more westerly track than if the system was shallower. I'd pay attention to this trend if it continues to be an outlier for the next run or two.

[jlauderdal]

Bam is worse than CMC and navgem model

The BAMs aren't really referenced any more by NHC in their discussion, they have been over taken by the more sophisticated modern models.

Personally, I don't look at them for track --- however, I do look at them for trend. I see what their general "thinking" is. Since Matthew is a deep system it is interesting that the BAMD suggests a more westerly track than if the system was shallower. I'd pay attention to this trend if it continues to be an outlier for the next run or two.

alanyo(lover of the MU) posted about this yesterday

[MississippiWx]

Really hard for hurricanes in October to make landfall on the East Coast, but I thought this year would be a little different considering all of the persistent ridging over the East this year. Looks like we are getting lucky with a cut-off low breaking the ridge down enough to recurve. Not out of the woods yet, especially in the Carolinas, but man is the US lucky or what these days...

As for our friends in Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Bahamas, here's to hoping shear/dry air weakens Matt.

[Aric Dunn]

Bam is worse than CMC and navgem model

The BAMs aren't really referenced any more by NHC in their discussion, they have been over taken by the more sophisticated modern models.

Personally, I don't look at them for track --- however, I do look at them for trend. I see what their general "thinking" is. Since Matthew is a deep system it is interesting that the BAMD suggests a more westerly track than if the system was shallower. I'd pay attention to this trend if it continues to be an outlier for the next run or two.

alanyo(lover of the MU) posted about this yesterday

I remember with Jeanne that all the dynamical and global models showed it out to sea then all of sudden the BAMD and BAMM from 06z to 12z showed the crazy loops that it did before the rest which took till the 18z to catch up. so they are very much worth paying attention to in terms of trends.

[alienstorm]

at 11:42Z (13.7667N 70.3W)
at 13:29Z (13.7333N 70.5667W)

So still moving slightly south of due west but not as much as before.

[jlauderdal]

The BAMs aren't really referenced any more by NHC in their discussion, they have been over taken by the more sophisticated modern models.

Personally, I don't look at them for track --- however, I do look at them for trend. I see what their general "thinking" is. Since Matthew is a deep system it is interesting that the BAMD suggests a more westerly track than if the system was shallower. I'd pay attention to this trend if it continues to be an outlier for the next run or two.

alanyo(lover of the MU) posted about this yesterday

I remember with Jeanne that all the dynamical and global models showed it out to sea then all of sudden the BAMD and BAMM from 06z to 12z show the crazy loops that it did before the res which took till the 18z to catch up. so they are very much worth paying attention to in terms of trends.

yes..to just throw out models because its easy and convenient is foolish..yes the gfs and euro are the big globals but they havent been gold...as long as the system is heading west its a real a issue for the united states...it wont take much to add two degrees approx 120 miles of long...thats well less than a day of forward motion..then it comes north then more ridging builds back then forecast or less...its unikely that 5 day position is within 100 miles

[MGC]

Most of the models have done a pretty good job with Matthew. Models were showing a WSW motion and that is the current heading of the hurricane.....MGC

[Bocadude85]

at 11:42Z (13.7667N 70.3W)
at 13:29Z (13.7333N 70.5667W)

So still moving slightly south of due west but not as much as before.

Yea but the NHC wasnt forecasting it to reach 13.7 until it was at 72.5w...

[sma10]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

[MississippiWx]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

Going to consider it blind luck for now...lol.

[PTrackerLA]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

The Euro ensembles have been a disaster for this system. Unbelievably large spread after day 5 up until today.