ATL: LAURA - Models

[Nederlander]

12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/OtjfTsa.gif

Laura also seems notably weaker on the latest run. The NAM seems to be showing more shear and mid-level dry air as well.

Not that we should use NAM for intensity, but just comparing it to the 06z NAM run it doesn't seem weaker. 12z NAM has landfall at 907 mbar, 06z NAM had 909 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/8yVxUym.png

That’s hi res... definitely don’t use that one

[catskillfire51]

Icon slightly weaker and a little northeast through 45 hrs

[kevin]

Laura also seems notably weaker on the latest run. The NAM seems to be showing more shear and mid-level dry air as well.

Not that we should use NAM for intensity, but just comparing it to the 06z NAM run it doesn't seem weaker. 12z NAM has landfall at 907 mbar, 06z NAM had 909 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/8yVxUym.png

That’s hi res... definitely don’t use that one

Ah yes thanks, I also just spotted it. If we use 12km, then 12z NAM has 977 mbar and 06z had 966 mbar so indeed a bit weaker. Most important factor here seems to be the weaker ridge which sends it further East and gives it less time over water (12z has its landfall about 9 hours earlier).

[Steve]

ICON looks to be hitting LA/TX border area Wednesday night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=60

[PTrackerLA]

12z ICON

[Sambucol]

Why haven’t at least watches been put up for the upper Texas Coast?

[St0rmTh0r]

12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/OtjfTsa.gif

Laura also seems notably weaker on the latest run. The NAM seems to be showing more shear and mid-level dry air as well.

Not that we should use NAM for intensity, but just comparing it to the 06z NAM run it doesn't seem weaker. 12z NAM has landfall at 907 mbar, 06z NAM had 909 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/8yVxUym.png

Great another Cat 5 landfall that obliterates LA!

[catskillfire51]

GFS is further North then current at the start.

[tolakram]

Init not horrible.

12Z GFS

[shiny-pebble]

This will probably end up too far east IMO

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

This will probably end up too far east IMO https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/2a62e0f202552af95a7be40a58e5fa22.jpg

Looks like it’s already not accounting for the center relocation west. You could be right.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[shiny-pebble]

Looks like rapid strengthening will occur on GFS from hour 36 onward

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[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like another TX/La to Beaumont landfall. And that’s with it initializing a bit north and east

[PTrackerLA]

GFS trend at 48hr

[tolakram]