Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Quixotic]

More interested in the RAP and HRRR.

[Tireman4]

Speaking of sampling, I imagine that will happen Thursday?

Think a poster said tomorrow

Yes, the Austin Man and yes, tomorrow.

[orangeblood]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

This post is a bit misleading IMO...this only goes out to midnight Friday night, the system is just getting started at that time - only the 2nd/3rd inning. It will get significantly colder as the system progresses out of Baja overnight on Friday and into late Saturday

[Quixotic]

I hope it's not a jinx!!!!!???

Just remember not to get too giddy and not to get too low.

Wise advice, which is why I am trying not to get one run get me too worried. Even the high-res models sometimes have goofy runs. Granted I don't want a massive ice storm here either.

Brother, you and me both. Freezing rain sucks. Giant sleet storms are almost as bad. FWD has me in the mostly snow area. Hope it holds.

[Ralph's Weather]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

This post is a bit misleading IMO...this only goes out to midnight Friday night, the system is just getting started at that time - only the 2nd/3rd inning. It will get significantly colder as the system progresses out of Baja overnight on Friday and into late Saturday

Agreed but was holding out hope to not have a base of significant freezing rain before the real even begins on Saturday. Though if it holds above 28 or so that freezing rain will not be a major travel issue for for Friday evening which would be very beneficial.

[orangeblood]

Did we get NAM'ed?

No, not in Texas. Oklahoma maybe a different story if the NAM is onto something, much more suppressed with qpf shield. But I don't really trust the NAM precip output at this range...

[wxman57]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

Wait so DFW has trended down in totals now?

That depends on what model you're looking at. It's too early to be confident of anything. D-FW could see anywhere from 1-2 inches to 8-10 inches.

[Gotwood]

I do not love seeing the NAM as warm as it is at the end of its run with that much of a warm nose. That's more of a prolonged period of freezing rain than I would prefer.

If we can keep the air temps in the 30-32*F range as it shows, we should avoid significant icing as the rain will struggle with accretion on the antecedent warm surfaces.

This post is a bit misleading IMO...this only goes out to midnight Friday night, the system is just getting started at that time - only the 2nd/3rd inning. It will get significantly colder as the system progresses out of Baja overnight on Friday and into late Saturday

Yeah this isn’t like last year. We have serious cold coming down.

[orangeblood]

ICON also much more suppressed with QPF shield across Oklahoma, a trend that may have some traction particularly as the models latch onto how strong the Arctic HP is

[HockeyTx82]

ICON also much more suppressed with QPF shield across Oklahoma, a trend that may have some traction particularly as the models latch onto how strong the Arctic HP is

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_precip_inch/1768932000/1769364000-cB9W5IPMZbE.png

Can't have both, can we......

[orangeblood]

ICON also much more suppressed with QPF shield across Oklahoma, a trend that may have some traction particularly as the models latch onto how strong the Arctic HP is

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_precip_inch/1768932000/1769364000-cB9W5IPMZbE.png

Can't have both, can we......

North Texas is still ground zero and ICON has actually increased totals there. It's Oklahoma particularly N/2 could be undercut quite a bit from earlier depictions

[Iceresistance]

ICON also much more suppressed with QPF shield across Oklahoma, a trend that may have some traction particularly as the models latch onto how strong the Arctic HP is

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/scentus/total_precip_inch/1768932000/1769364000-cB9W5IPMZbE.png

I did see chatter that the models can't figure out the Baja low, so expect the back and forth runs to go for a while

[jaguars_22]

A lot of this moisture is going to be coming out of Mexico! So not well modeled correct? So no model is going to be correct on amounts? Man I just wish the cold would come in sooner so it would be all of Texas seeing sleet and snow

[snownado]

Looking aloft, I can immediately see what's causing the difference on the 18z NAM / RGEM vs. the GFS and ICON.

The STJ is much quicker to phase with the polar jet on the NAM / RGEM, which is pumping up the heights and thus leading to stronger cyclonegenesis in the RGV. That also limits the extent of cold air advection from the NE as the wind field responds by settling out of the E/SE for an extended period versus the N/NE.

18z ICON is closer to the EURO solution (which seems to be the middle ground right now).

Gotta love threading the needle...

[Snowman67]

Here are all the model forecasts for Houston. Note the Canadian is the extreme outlier, as it always is here with such events. Discard it immediately. UKMET (gray line) is way too warm at the start, too cold in the middle, and too warm at the end of the graphic. National Blend of Models (NBM) has Houston below freezing from 3am Sunday to 12pm Monday. Note that these are 6hr data points, meaning no 21Z points, so it's possible the temperature could be a deg or two higher in mid afternoon. NBM has an inch or two of snow in D-FW area and about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain here in Houston. I suspect elevated roads will become icy in Houston Saturday evening. I'm not seeing enough freezing rain for power outages yet, but I wouldn't rule out 1/4" of freezing rain or more here. I'll be nice and warm with my generator running if there is a power outage. No need to fly to Australia this time.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan20Models.jpg

If Houston metro received a 1/10 in of freezing rain as mentioned above, would you expect far northern Harris and southern Montgomery to receive appreciably more than that, or close to the same?

[bubba hotep]

Did we get NAM'ed?

No, not in Texas. Oklahoma maybe a different story if the NAM is onto something, much more suppressed with qpf shield. But I don't really trust the NAM precip output at this range...

Things I don't put any stock in - The Cowboys & the low res-NAM

[dhweather]

Things I don't put any stock in - The Cowboys & the low res-NAM

Have you ever seen both of them in the same room at the same time? Didn't think so.

[txtwister78]

18z GFS trending colder and again advancing the arctic air deeper into Texas faster with your freeze line approaching northern Bexar by midnight Saturday morning dropping from there.

[cheezyWXguy]

The event is only just getting into the range of the NAM 12k, it’s only seeing about 6 hours into what could be a 24hr+ event. By its standards, it’s out in lala land right now. It is better at handling surface temps than the gfs, but only once the we get into range of the NAM 3k (<60hr). It’s common to see fluctuations on the model during this time, followed by dialing in during the final 2 days leading up to the event.

Also, it has a tendency to overdo the urban heat island effect, even more than the gfs, so that should be taken into account for us city slickers across the state trying to decipher precip types or surface temps in metro areas vs surrounding areas.

[Ntxw]

Don't see a forecast like this everyday around these parts. Remember we went a quarter century without a single digit temp up until 2021?

DFW

Friday: Rain showers likely before noon, then rain showers, possibly mixed with sleet. Temperature falling to around 33 by 4pm. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night: Rain showers, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday: Sleet, possibly mixed with snow showers and freezing rain. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 25.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 32.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.