ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chris_fit]

Question for the Pros....

In the past there was talk of powerful hurricanes creating their own environment and 'pumping up the ridge'.... is this possible with this one? Normally I always thought the stronger the storm, the more poleward the tendency to move. Seems like it's the reverse with this one, why?

[Aric Dunn]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

Going to consider it blind luck for now...lol.

although tightly clustered... the entire ensemble of the GFS members as well as the rest have been shifting west. one needs only to look at this.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

its very clear regardless of the run to run operational gfs we see bouncing all over the model consensus continues its slow westward migration. very likely be in the western bahamas by 00z tonight and possibly over the FL peninsula 12z tomorrow.

[Michele B]

I am sorry but I have to vent:
The models have achieved an unprecidented level on the Crapola Scale this year.

The money spent on the phenomenal "upgrades" sure paid off this season .

I remember in the early '90's.....TWC used to to prognosticate about these things using "computer models," which was a fairly new science back then. Using analog models from the past, they created the "cone" to predict where these things would go based on where past storms had gone. So far, so good, right?

Well, we were NOT living in FL at the time, so it wasn't a big deal to us much, but as we would watch the forecasters on TWC (especially Dave Schwartz was so bad about this), and they would keep saying, "This storm is forecast to turn east before it hits any east coast land...."

AND THEY WOULD SAY IT RIGHT UP UNTIL THE TIME THE STORM WAS HEADED NW AND SLAMMED INTO SC COAST, OR NC OUTER BANKS....whatever! We just used to shake our heads and laugh. Except it's not funny, if it's YOUR house it's aiming at and the guys you TRUST to tell you the forecasted path are wrong, wrong, wrong. See, their computers were fed info from previous DECADES, when the "Bermuda High" was the strongest steering current to move storms. Then, it seemed, toward the end of the '80's and all the rest of the decade, into the 2000's, the Bermuda High didn't exist! So NO steering current to turn them out to sea.

I say all this to point to the forecasts about Matt, because there still seems to be so much uncertainty.

GFS says one thing, UK says something else, EC says a different thing again. Some seem to be so much better at predicting, others, not so much. I think it still has to do with the "garbage in...." what is coming out. Have the diagnostic tools been updated, based on newer weather patterns, or still relying on HOW THINGS USED TO WORK in the Atlantic?

jmho

[KWT]

Most of the models have done a pretty good job with Matthew. Models were showing a WSW motion and that is the current heading of the hurricane.....MGC

Yes the models didn't do a bad job on the dive. The GFS took a long time coming on board with it but got there in the end...

[Bocadude85]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

Going to consider it blind luck for now...lol.

although tightly clustered... the entire ensemble of the GFS members as well as the rest have been shifting west. one needs only to look at this.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

its very clear regardless of the run to run operational gfs we see bouncing all over the model consensus continues its slow westward migration. very likely be in the western bahamas by 00z tonight and possibly over the FL peninsula 12z tomorrow.

Thats a pretty bold prediction. You don't think they will start trending farther east in the Bahamas?

[caneseddy]

From the 11 am NHC discussion

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

[jlauderdal]

From the 11 am NHC discussion

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

everyone in the SE USA has been warned about track error if they didn't already know it

[caneseddy]

12z NAM has Matthew landfalling on central Jamaica (almost over Kingston) heading due north

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016093012&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=200

[AutoPenalti]

Here's what I think could be at play.

Stronger Matthew = Pumps the ridge, geared towards a western shift

Slower Matthew = Ridge builds into the Bahamas, geared towards a western shift

Weaker Matthew = Steered by a weakening ridge, trough picks it up and out to sea.

Faster Matthew = Ridge runs out of time to build into the west, steered NE by an impending trough and OTS.

[JaxGator]

Here's what I think could be at play.

Stronger Matthew = Pumps the ridge, geared towards a western shift

Slower Matthew = Ridge builds into the Bahamas, geared towards a western shift

Weaker Matthew = Steered by a weakening ridge, trough picks it up and out to sea.

Faster Matthew = Ridge runs out of time to build into the west, steered NE by an impending trough and OTS.

That's what Alyono mentioned too being a stronger system moving more west (and Levi as well I think).

[centuryv58]

A word about the GFS ...

I have been following track model forecasts more years than I care to remember. Never can I recall any model (much less the GFS/AVN!) have such little variability in its entire ensemble suite. I don't know how many runs in a row it is now (10? 15??) where the spaghetti tracks have been clustered together in such a tight bundle that you cannot discern even one iota of track variability. Granted, once the system leaves the Northern Bahamas, the tracks becomes more diverse, but for literally the past 3 days the GFS runs have been in absolute tight formation each time up thru the Bahamas. I don't even know what this means, given what is supposedly a tricky setup.

This will be an amazing feat if it verifies.

Going to consider it blind luck for now...lol.

although tightly clustered... the entire ensemble of the GFS members as well as the rest have been shifting west. one needs only to look at this.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 6&title=14

its very clear regardless of the run to run operational gfs we see bouncing all over the model consensus continues its slow westward migration. very likely be in the western bahamas by 00z tonight and possibly over the FL peninsula 12z tomorrow.

I used to like reading your ideas here... but not when they are too close to my condo.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/781872640646578176

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Running.

@18hrz

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not buying the path east of Florida yet yet. It needs to turn before I'm sold

[bqknight]

How do people think the GFS initialized the storm? Too weak, right?

[Steve]

US could get by on the skin of our teeth. No all clear yet, but on a global scale, this track is just down the block. Fingers crossed.

[N2FSU]

Here's what I think could be at play.

Stronger Matthew = Pumps the ridge, geared towards a western shift

Slower Matthew = Ridge builds into the Bahamas, geared towards a western shift

Weaker Matthew = Steered by a weakening ridge, trough picks it up and out to sea.

Faster Matthew = Ridge runs out of time to build into the west, steered NE by an impending trough and OTS.

That's what Alyono mentioned too being a stronger system moving more west (and Levi as well I think).

Well, as Greg Forbes on TWC just pointed out, an eye appears to be clearing out and it "may have a lot more room to go" as far as intensifying, so it will be interesting to watch for possible western shifts.

[chris_fit]

Slightly stronger ridging and Stronger Matthew @ 12Z vs the previous run

[caneseddy]

Looks to be making turn at hour 48 on 12z GFS

[blp]

Don't know if anyone posted this. Look at last nights UKMET continues with the NW turn.