ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

I am back after 25 hours without power and internet. I am safe and dry as in my area in San Juan ,nothing bad occured except for the lack of power that affected more than 500,000 people in the island. Last night heavy showers with winds that I clocked at 36 mph with my anemometer moved thru but no damage occured in my area.In other areas in PR, many trees went down and some electric poles also went down but no flooding event occured as well no fatalitles. In other words PR dodged a big bullet.

Really glad to hear you are ok, Luis!

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm glad everything is okay Luis. Pretty exciting stuff then. I don't mind a good tropical storm with not much damage and no fatalities. Bet you didn't get much sleep, 'eh?

On another note...

The Western Side of the Circulation seems to be really improving.

[johngaltfla]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL072010&starting_image=2010AL07_4KMIRIMG_201008251230.GIF

Looks to be moving NNW earlier than expected , could be good news for the EC.

I want to see 12-24 hours of movement before I give a sigh any relief. The model runs tonight could be a big sigh of relief or reason to become concerned.

[TropicalWXMA]

Well, we don't see this kind of forecast in Atlantic City very often:

Atlantic City NJ
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Philadelphia, PA
Point Forecast: Atlantic City NJ
39.36°N 74.4°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 7:44 pm EDT Aug 31, 2010
Forecast Valid: 9pm EDT Aug 31, 2010-6pm EDT Sep 7, 2010

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Welcome to my world!

Gee - thanks!

Seeing the same here!

[cpdaman]

guys this is not gonna be moving NNW long...it will move back NW ...and probably about 310 degress IMO by the 5 am advisory.

there sure is a ton of dry air to it's north and NW wow.

[otowntiger]

[
[
Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.[/b][/quote]

Welcome to my world! [/quote]

Gee - thanks! [/quote]
Seeing the same here! [/quote] I suppose that's akin to us getting those rare, but ocasional 'winter storm' warnings for the gulf coast region.

[SunnyThoughts]

[johngaltfla]

guys this is not gonna be moving NNW long...it will move back NW ...and probably about 310 degress IMO by the 5 am advisory.

there sure is a ton of dry air to it's north and NW wow.

This is NOT a forecast, but CPD, I think you're right. I want to see the pros locally comment on this movement and confirm a turn over the next 18 hours before I buy this as "the" move to NNW then N. I hope though that it is. Way too many variables tonight before anyone should sleep tight on this sucker.

[edgeblade]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position. Looks to be moving nnw. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/5/windfield.gif

Are those wind speeds in KPH or MPH?

[UpTheCreek]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

I am back after 25 hours without power and internet. I am safe and dry as in my area in San Juan ,nothing bad occured except for the lack of power that affected more than 500,000 people in the island. Last night heavy showers with winds that I clocked at 36 mph with my anemometer moved thru but no damage occured in my area.In other areas in PR, many trees went down and some electric poles also went down but no flooding event occured as well no fatalitles. In other words PR dodged a big bullet.

Really good to hear!

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position. Looks to be moving nnw. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/5/windfield.gif

Are those wind speeds in KPH or MPH?

miles

[Tstormwatcher]

Looking even better, should see an eye soon.

[angelwing]

Guess I will be not be going to bed tonight, I really don't wanna go to work in NJ on Friday in anything nasty.

[hurricaneCW]

I think the NNW movement is a wobble, it's definitely NW, but not that north. There is strong ridge to its north and west so I doubt he's turning that far north so early. I wouldn't be surprised at a big wobble all the way to the WNW later on.

[brunota2003]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

[JtSmarts]

I think the NNW movement is a wobble, it's definitely NW, but not that north. There is strong ridge to its north and west so I doubt he's turning that far north so early. I wouldn't be surprised at a big wobble all the way to the WNW later on.

I agree. It was a substantial north wobble but as some pro mets have said, Earl has been pretty much stair-stepping at times to the W, WNW, NW and NNW over the past few days.

[cpdaman]

Guess I will be not be going to bed tonight, I really don't wanna go to work in NJ on Friday in anything nasty.

go ahead and sleep tight tonite...

earl the pearl is still trackin NW......and even a little west bump for the wobble watchers on the last frame

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

[hurricaneCW]

I think the EWRC has neared completion due to the more visible eye starting to show up on satellite imagery. I have to say I'm still shocked this is a Cat 4 storm, when you think of a Cat 4, the current visual of Earl is not what normally comes to mind. Yesterday's Earl reminded me of a Cat 4, today's Earl looks no stronger than a high end Cat 2, low end 3, but looks can be deceiving I suppose. Tonight's recon mission should give us a good insight on what Earl is up to.

[Tstormwatcher]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

[DreamworksSKG]

Anyone notice the NOGAPS latest run puts it over Block Island and then up over Boston??

try the model plots on tropicalatlantic.com if you don't believe me.