ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Center dropsonde of 1006 mb with some surface wind. Elsa is not done yet.

[aspen]

The 8am position is, in what seems to be a recurring theme for Elsa, a little south of the forecast track.

[eastcoastFL]

Those wind probabilities cover a specific time frame and rise as a storm gets closer to the area. Yesterday that percentage was 0. By Wednesday it’ll probably be 30-40% if the storm maintains course.

Not if they're expecting the system to be depression intensity before it leaves florida. I'll be shocked if i get sustained, gradient induced ts winds here.

Who’s expecting it to be a depression? Official NHC forecast has it riding up the coast as a tropical storm.

It’s forecast to be a depression until it’s back over what south of cape cod.

[AveryTheComrade]

Every 2 hours I tell myself I'll stop obsessing over this damned storm for a while and then an hour later I'm back, I just want it gone.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 8am position is, in what seems to be a recurring theme for Elsa, a little south of the forecast track.

So isn't that bad given it would mean more time spent over water?

[eastcoastFL]

The 8am position is, in what seems to be a recurring theme for Elsa, a little south of the forecast track.

So isn't that bad given it would mean more time spent over water?

It’s going to be over water longer. It’s about to Elsa whether that will be good or bad

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF goes waaaay west and ends up on the panhandle.

[blp]

Its looking real good now. West side wall is filling in. I think we may have an eyewall starting to form.

Source @Bmcnoldy RSMAS

[wxman57]

Recon finding winds NE of the center blowing to the north, away from the center. Not good for surface convergence around center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think that big convective blob to the south is where the best convergence is...that would be a hoot if the center reformed down there. If anything...might be pulling the center on a less northerly track.

[artist]

[blp]

Elsa has been it's own worst enemy. This could easily have been a major by now. The environment was good no major shear and it missed all the major landmasses so far. We are very fortunate this has not taken advantage of it's opportunity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Elsa finally looks like a normal tropical storm on recon. I'd peg it around 55 knots.

[Iceresistance]

Elsa has been it's own worst enemy. This could easily have been a major by now. The environment was good no major shear and it missed all the major landmasses so far. We are very fortunate this has not taken advantage of it's opportunity.

It's fast motion was the one that prevented Elsa from becoming very strong . . .

[aspen]

While pressures are still high, recon has also shown that Elsa’s pressure gradient has massively improved since the last mission…mainly because it now has a pressure gradient this time.

[Hammy]

Finally some solid west winds for the first time in days, and tropical storm winds even wrapping around on the south.

[AlphaToOmega]

Pressures are dropping. Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a hurricane again in the next 12 or so hours.

[robbielyn]

18z HWRF goes waaaay west and ends up on the panhandle.

with landfall at 1009mb with almost no precipitation. cuba kills it for the most part.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1411848739225059328

[robbielyn]

Pressures are dropping. Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a hurricane again in the next 12 or so hours.

hwrf shows only 1003 mb right before crossing cuba. hwrf usually bullish on intensity so i don’t know about that. we shall see.