ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3141 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:52 pm

145kts heading due west towards the keys on HMON 120hr
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3142 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:53 pm

beachman80 wrote:I know the HMON is not a reliable model, but would anyone really be surprised if there track is right? The way this thing is trending south? I personally think Euro is going go even further south their next run.


I wouldn't be surprised if it goes through Miami and down towards the Keys before getting into the GoM.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3143 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:56 pm

Got to love fresh new g4 data !
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3144 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:56 pm

One thing is clear, a definite south trend toward south Florida today, after that is up in the air
3 likes   
Michael
Top
beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3145 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

So HMON stalls out as a cat 4-5 over Key West. That’s Armageddon for that city.
0 likes   
Top
Tyler Penland
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:32 pm
Location: Blowing Rock, NC

Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3146 Postby Tyler Penland » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Got to love fresh new g4 data !
Is that in already? I thought it wouldn't be fully ingested til 0z.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
****The above is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. I am in no way affiliated with the NWS or storm2k, and most likely don't share their opinion. Please refer to NWS/NHC products for official advisories/warnings/forecasts.****

But if you insist, trust me, I'm a physicist.
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3147 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Got to love fresh new g4 data !


What exactly are you talking about??? The most current models we have been talking about, or do you see something we haven't seen?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4041
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3148 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

The Keys do not need this from the HMON, some are still recovering from Irma.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
CaneCurious
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 160
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:40 pm
Location: Kenner, LA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3149 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

Ivanhater wrote:One thing is clear, a definite south trend toward south Florida today, after that is up in the air


Ivanhater! Glad to see you on here :D
4 likes   
Top
beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3150 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

If the HMON came true, Key west may get a full day of sunshine next Tuesday as it sits in the middle of the eye all day.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4830
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3151 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:59 pm

18z HMON lower keys and into the GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082918&fh=96
1 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3152 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:00 pm

Tyler Penland wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5
They also have a low-970s storm at hour 3 which is highly unlikely.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Looks like it's getting into the low-970s already according to recon...
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3245
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3153 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:01 pm

18Z Euro looks slightly north through 42 hours
1 likes   
Top
psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4769
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3154 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:02 pm



Is it gonna do a labor day 35 and come up the west coast? Might as well...
0 likes   
Top
Tyler Penland
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:32 pm
Location: Blowing Rock, NC

Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3155 Postby Tyler Penland » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:04 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Tyler Penland wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5
They also have a low-970s storm at hour 3 which is highly unlikely.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Looks like it's getting into the low-970s already according to recon...
Wow. Actually a little surprised with the shear/dry air issues it's having.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
****The above is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. I am in no way affiliated with the NWS or storm2k, and most likely don't share their opinion. Please refer to NWS/NHC products for official advisories/warnings/forecasts.****

But if you insist, trust me, I'm a physicist.
Top
User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3156 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:06 pm

Meanwhile the 18z HWRF is quite a bit slower with its landfall.
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Top
User avatar
HeeBGBz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Age: 71
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:25 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3157 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:08 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Seems like with every model run Dorian keeps
on moving a little further south and west before it hooks north....it should be a little concerning for the Northern GOM folks. IMO


I've been expecting this more southern track. Seems to be on a familiar path. I have just been reading until it gets more defined one way or the other. UK and Icon have been making more sense.

Watching and waiting. Today is Katrinas 14th anniversary and I remain uneasy in Biloxi.
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3158 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

Just for reference last evenings HMON was near Melbourne. Huge shift in just 24 hours
1 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3159 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3245
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3160 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

NO Southerly component yet through 75hrs on the 18z Euro
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests