ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txag2005]

So when will they start evacuation orders for Galveston? Time is running thin

If the 12z models are the same then I think they better start getting the costal areas in Brazoria/Galveston/Chambers counties out. That is even more important given the intensity estimates mean a lot of the more inland evacuation zip codes likely need to go too.

[Nederlander]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/svvgKeW.gif

I know she doesn’t look all that healthy, but looks can be deceiving. The worst conditions seem to be behind her, core is intact, and I imagine sat presentation looks much better in ~12 hours.

[galvbay]

Galvbay checking in from Smith Point, TX.....north side of Galveston Bay. Wait and see stage right now.

[Cat5James]

I expect Laura to have a much better appearance 12 hours from now... she is moving over some extremely warm waters.

[jaguars_22]

What’s the chance is sneaks further west towards port o Connor? Any thoughts on maybe a more western shift

[aspen]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/svvgKeW.gif

I know she doesn’t look all that healthy, but looks can be deceiving. The worst conditions seem to be behind her, core is intact, and I imagine sat presentation looks much better in ~12 hours.

Recon is enough to tell Laura is in decent shape. While broad, she does have a visible pressure gradient with extrapolated pressures below 1000 mbar and an exact LLC. Tropical storm force winds are also being found frequently. If she was nearly an open wave, recon would’ve had a far more difficult time finding the LLC, and only a weak or perhaps non-existent pressure gradient would’ve been observed.

[Jr0d]

If marco was not there. then a gradual turn is fine given the tilt to the ridge. .. but the weakness is there.

so a sharper NW turn before bending back WNW>

That would put Central and SELA back in play.

You can see Laura's Circulation being stretched to the NW.. a key indicator that the two circs are already beginning to interact. and that the weakness/steering behind Marco is in place.

( I am not an artist lol)

https://i.ibb.co/zSCJRsp/Capture.png

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2Z.GIF

I was a little worried about this scenario yesterday and overnight. Does not look like it's happening, with a small core it's unlikely, however the convection now bursting now so that might change things a little.

I noticed dry air that is filling in from the northeast, this might inhibit storms from redeveloping on the north side of Cuba.

[Blow_Hard]

What’s the chance is sneaks further west towards port o Connor? Any thoughts on maybe a more western shift

IMO, the shifts from this point on will be westward because it appears Laura is going to stay south of where many models have initialized her. There may be more wind shield wipering but I think we are down to extreme SW La to as far a South Central TX landfall. The trend has been west and will likely continue to be so.

[dantonlsu]

Going to be an interesting day.

Imagine we start seeing Hurricane Watches going up today.

[galvestontx]

Went to bed last night thinking we were out of the woods.

[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn’t get too caught up in IR presentation. Structurally the storm is in good shape and it appears she’ll be in better shape than anyone anticipated when she enters the gulf. IR presentation can change rapidly once convection starts to fire and it will as she continues heading to the WNW. Don’t let your guard down, it’s not even in the gulf yet and that’s where the real strengthening begins. This is still pre game for Laura.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Went to bed last night thinking we were out of the woods.

Me too.

[plasticup]

So when will they start evacuation orders for Galveston? Time is running thin

So much model spread right now. This could be a NOLA storm as easily as a Houston one.

[3090]

So when will they start evacuation orders for Galveston? Time is running thin

So much model spread right now. This could be a NOLA storm as easily as a Houston one.

Or northern Mexico/south Texas!

[SoupBone]

So when will they start evacuation orders for Galveston? Time is running thin

So much model spread right now. This could be a NOLA storm as easily as a Houston one.

I don't agree with that, but you never know. The models, for their lack of consistency run to run, are focusing on the SWLA - to Tex Border with more frequency than the outliers of galveston to SELA. But yeah, it's frustrating that the window is closing fast with no real certainty.

[Nederlander]

So when will they start evacuation orders for Galveston? Time is running thin

So much model spread right now. This could be a NOLA storm as easily as a Houston one.

Much more easily a Houston storm than a NOLA one based on model guidance

[Shawee]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/svvgKeW.gif

Less than perfect conditions, yet she holds her own. Hoping some fo that dry Mexican air, that dove off the plains to help push Marco off, reactivates. Just not sure it will slide over this time or down the the Pacific.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[USTropics]

Laura is traveling over some of the highest TCHP waters in the Atlantic right now:


Land interaction is not an issue, and clear banding is improving on radar:


Expanding canopy right over the center is shown on visible:


These are all signs Laura will most likely be stronger in the short term then most models are forecasting. I wouldn't rule out 985-980mb as this approaches the NW tip of Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

Coming into view on visible

[GCANE]

Interesting mixed bag in terms of current thermodynamic conditions.
Low CAPE being entrained from the drier air from the west.
However higher Theta-E air in the core from the WISHE off the W Carib high OHC water.