ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on radar it's on a 290 track and tending towards 300, and if it continues to strengthen that will increase the right turning tendancy, especially as the trough drops SE, so while I'm still very aware of Irene it is looking better for us here in Fort Lauderdale...

Frank

One thing for sure, this doesn't look like any possibility of a recurve out to sea. It could be a recurve away from Florida, but someone along the east coast is going to get hammered....

Even if it becomes a major, sure it will recurve, but only northwest, not northeast, because of the big ridge of high pressure system.

[RL3AO]

173
UZNT13 KNHC 221418
XXAA 72147 99190 70673 04397 99989 27623 16517 00595 ///// /////
92595 23213 19515 85332 20431 21019 70003 14650 15002 88999 77999
31313 09608 81342
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 1900N06733W 1345 MBL WND 18517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19
511 989696 WL150 18018 083 REL 1899N06733W 134246 SPG 1900N06733W
134528 =
XXBB 72148 99190 70673 04397 00989 27623 11886 21011 22850 20431
33769 19657 44711 16256 55696 13850
21212 00989 16517 11945 19515 22880 20014 33850 21019 44812 19013
55795 22010 66696 15002
31313 09608 81342
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 1900N06733W 1345 MBL WND 18517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19
511 989696 WL150 18018 083 REL 1899N06733W 134246 SPG 1900N06733W
134528 =
;


Eye splash. 989mb/17kt

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 24:

[SunnyFla]

I think there are a lot of people in SE FL that are forgetting the NHC's warning to watch the cone and not the center line. We should have all learned that lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004.



_________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

Put me down in the "disagree" column.
Looking at the cluster of models on the prior page and the moving of the NHC steadily east; I DO NOT expect a Hurricane Watch, at least not in South Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I didn't expect you to agree based on your prior posts. So let's agree to disagree. While I am not predicting a SE FL landfall you actually proved my point that people are watching the line and not the cone. I personally think it is still too early to call.

Just my opinion along with the usual disclaimer.

[Meteorcane]

Based on radar it's on a 290 track and tending towards 300, and if it continues to strengthen that will increase the right turning tendancy, especially as the trough drops SE, so while I'm still very aware of Irene it is looking better for us here in Fort Lauderdale...

Frank

One thing for sure, this doesn't look like any possibility of a recurve out to sea. It could be a recurve away from Florida, but someone along the east coast is going to get hammered....

Even if it becomes a major, sure it will recurve, but only northwest, not northeast, because of the big ridge of high pressure system.

But some of the models show a complete recurve don't they?

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on radar it's on a 290 track and tending towards 300, and if it continues to strengthen that will increase the right turning tendancy, especially as the trough drops SE, so while I'm still very aware of Irene it is looking better for us here in Fort Lauderdale...

Frank

One thing for sure, this doesn't look like any possibility of a recurve out to sea. It could be a recurve away from Florida, but someone along the east coast is going to get hammered....

Even if it becomes a major, sure it will recurve, but only northwest, not northeast, because of the big ridge of high pressure system.

But some of the models show a complete recurve don't they?

from what I understand, none of the RELIABLE models show this...For it to recurve out to sea would mean almost all of the models will be wrong. Plus, there's nothing at all in the latest discussion that even mentions this possibility, and they always mention "recurve" if they think it even has a small chance.

[Meteorcane]

ok thank you I am still quite new to this.

[RL3AO]

808
URNT15 KNHC 221430
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 25 20110822
142030 2020N 06624W 6949 03184 0094 +068 //// 121046 047 043 001 05
142100 2020N 06626W 6949 03185 0089 +070 //// 122049 049 042 000 05
142130 2020N 06628W 6950 03183 0083 +074 +065 125050 050 042 001 03
142200 2020N 06630W 6949 03182 0081 +076 +060 126052 053 042 001 03
142230 2020N 06633W 6950 03179 0075 +079 +062 127053 054 043 001 03
142300 2020N 06635W 6949 03180 0072 +079 +069 123052 054 043 001 00
142330 2020N 06637W 6952 03174 0071 +079 +064 124054 055 042 000 03
142400 2020N 06640W 6950 03178 0071 +080 +064 123053 055 043 000 00
142430 2021N 06642W 6949 03178 0070 +080 +059 121055 056 044 000 03
142500 2021N 06644W 6951 03174 0066 +080 +073 120055 056 045 000 03
142530 2021N 06646W 6955 03169 0078 +066 //// 121055 058 045 004 01
142600 2021N 06649W 6951 03173 0052 +084 +069 118057 059 048 001 00
142630 2021N 06651W 6949 03176 0056 +090 +057 118059 059 045 000 03
142700 2021N 06654W 6950 03174 0060 +086 +054 117059 059 045 000 03
142730 2021N 06656W 6950 03174 0052 +092 +046 115055 057 046 000 03
142800 2021N 06658W 6948 03177 0054 +091 +048 112054 054 047 000 03
142830 2021N 06701W 6950 03174 0054 +091 +058 109050 052 049 000 00
142900 2021N 06703W 6951 03172 0049 +095 +058 106047 048 048 001 03
142930 2021N 06705W 6950 03174 0053 +091 +059 106046 047 048 002 00
143000 2022N 06707W 6950 03173 0050 +094 +055 106046 046 049 002 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

Daily Quote:

"A hurricane is not a dot on a map"

Author: Neil Frank, Bob Sheets, Bob Burpee, Jerry Jarrell, Max Mayfield, Ed Rappaport, Bill Read, et al

[Frank2]

Yes, though perhaps TWC is right on track this time by saying perhaps the Carolinas might be at risk...

Frank

[Blown Away]

True, true - some mentioned a David scenairo, but even then in South Miami (where I lived at the time) all we had was cloudy and breezy weather - actually a pretty nice day, considering what it could have been...

Frank

Can't compare David to Irene, he came from below Hispaniola. David brought 90 mph winds to Jupiter, I was there.

If the NHC doesn't do a drastic track shift at 11am, then IMO they will only make slight adjustments until they get that upper level data later. They don't want to swing it way E then have to bring it back. If there is a big adjustment at 11am, then I'm pretty comfortable Irene will stay E of SFL.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, though perhaps TWC is right on track this time by saying perhaps the Carolinas might be at risk...

Frank

I agree Frank. It might be headed for the Carolinas, but all we can hope for is that somehow the mountains over DR weaken it some if it gets that close.

[Ground_Zero_92]

How can people on one hand put lots of stock in the models trending east and on the other hand say the models need G-IV data in order to be accurate?

Verification with real data

What he said ^^^

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 25:

[Frank2]

Can't compare David to Irene, he came from below Hispaniola. David brought 90 mph winds to Jupiter, I was there.

If the NHC doesn't do a drastic track shift at 11am, then IMO they will only make slight adjustments until they get that upper level data later. They don't want to swing it way E then have to bring it back. If there is a big adjustment at 11am, then I'm pretty comfortable Irene will stay E of SFL.

Yes, you are right - didn't mean to minimize the weather up the coast during David (though as you know in those days the Treasure Coast was essentially just a few small communities - not any more)...

As you said, they will likely let things stay as is today until after the G-IV data is made part of the model runs overnight or tomorrow...

Frank

[eastcoastFL]

I find this portion of the 9am discussion very interesting. Can anyone explain it in further detail?

"THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST"

[CrazyC83]

Based on recent Recon, it appears 70 kt and 988mb will be the 11 am intensity.

[Franc2580]

At this point until they have the upper air data from todays mission in the models I would not lend a whole lot of weight to the models. As one of the pro mets said earlier the pressure in Bermuda is holding steady and i believe it was said the models might be under doing the ridge and it is August it wouldn't surprise me if the models are over doing the trough just a touch.. but we will see thats just my opinion though.

[Tyler Penland]

I have nothing to go on but models but it looks like us here in NC need to start getting ready, I know they are looking at Ga/SC but how many times does that happen, I want to be ready and I hope everyone else along the eastern seaboard will do the same.

First post here although I have read basically this entire thread. You guys are doing an epic job. I'm learning a lot.

But I would like to remind you that while a GA/SC border landfall is rare, it does happen and has happened. Just because it doesn't happen often doesn't mean it can't. I'm personally not buying this huge eastern shift at all. I'm figuring on a landfall somewhere between Jacksonville and Myrtle Beach. I was in the eastern GOM camp with the Ukie and the GDFL but all these northward shifts are making me doubtful.

[chaser1]

[qu Aric, I have to agree with you with regards to the digging trough, and its relationship to the larger mid-level vortex over East/Central Canada. A couple days ago, I was actually fearful of this very event that appears to be unfolding now. First of all, looking at the 06Z GFS and simillarly comparing the prior 06Z NAM and 12Z NAM that just came out ( "no NAM groans from the audiance, though not reliable for specific TC development etc., it is highly used regarding mid latitude upper air forecasting ), there just IS NO OTHER digging trough that I can see. The primary vortex is pulling the shortwave energy back up and cyclonically around itself. Furthermore I do not buy into the logic that even after having weakened the western extension of the large ridge presently driving Irene WNW, that a ample weakness will simply remain. August Climotology aside, a 24/30 hr. NAM 06Z/12Z( respectivly ) comparison, very easily depicts the western extension of the 500mb - 588 line having filled from what was only about 72W, to now extending westward to about 76W. Furthermore, 500mb winds ( off Vero Beach, Fl ) 24 hours out ( at 6Z ) were S.W., where the 12Z for the same time period now shows "north" of west, thus depicting the "Texas Death Ridge" appearing to extend eastward and much closer to bridging the W. Atlantic high. Ironically, I would more likely make a short term argument for a slight bit more NW motion in the "near term", however after about 24 hours, just cannot see any reason that would preclude Irene from slowing down (due to the somewhat weaker low to mid level ridge), but also would anticipate a bend back to about 280. Furthermore, I see absolutley no other component that would impact a motion change, and thus the weak and building ridge should continue to drive the deepening hurricane on this steady course right across Florida's longitude and right on into the Gulf. Due to increasing heights over the Southeast Conus from the Texas high expanding eastward, I could see a scenario for significant slow down ( maybe even a COL ) near or over Florida's longitude. I believe greatest threat exists anywhere from Vero Beach, southward to potentially south of Mainland Florida/Florida Straights. Given the fresh upper air soundings that I beleive are being taken today, I would anticipate the GFS ( and HRWF ) to show tonights 0Z models to show a more westward swing in their forecasts, with the TVCN to immediatly follow. If I were to be right, than might expect Florida "Watches" to go in effect daybreak Tuesdayquote="Aric Dunn"]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

but look at the main energy the Low is lifting NE that trough will begin to lift soon. beside its not this trough that eventually models show turning it.[/quote]