ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[JPmia]

Someone said skin of our teeth earlier.. That sounds about right.

[gatorcane]

slowly turning but is it enough?

[LarryWx]

Much more ridging now. How can this escape at this point? Also seems slower timeframe wise.. The more it keeps slowing down the time frame the greater possibility of a trap scenario.

It can escape because the ridge will weaken but it is going to be at least a close call to NC if not an actual scrape/hit.

[sponger]

Much more SW at 144...the Midwest cold front can't dig fast enough. It better hurry or South Carolina is in play.

My thoughts too!

[chris_fit]

Finally a hint of East component at 156

[Alyono]

MASSIVE west shift by the UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 70.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2016 0 13.8N 70.5W 991 61
0000UTC 01.10.2016 12 13.2N 72.2W 993 50
1200UTC 01.10.2016 24 12.8N 73.9W 994 50
0000UTC 02.10.2016 36 12.9N 74.6W 993 45
1200UTC 02.10.2016 48 13.6N 75.9W 990 49
0000UTC 03.10.2016 60 15.0N 77.1W 983 58
1200UTC 03.10.2016 72 16.5N 77.0W 978 60
0000UTC 04.10.2016 84 18.3N 76.6W 976 62
1200UTC 04.10.2016 96 20.4N 76.1W 977 54
0000UTC 05.10.2016 108 22.2N 75.8W 970 63
1200UTC 05.10.2016 120 23.5N 75.5W 966 67
0000UTC 06.10.2016 132 24.7N 75.8W 961 69
1200UTC 06.10.2016 144 26.2N 76.8W 945 80

[Alyono]

the MU keeps turning this to the east just offshore as it tries to form Nicole to the northeast of Matthew

[gatorcane]

Way too close for us in South Florida looking at this simulated IR from the 12Z GFS:

[Steve H.]

Alright, call me stupid, but the GFS 12Z to is a significant change to how this is riding the east coast of Florida. Close to TS force winds at the beaches.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[CrazyC83]

I honestly believe it will go farther west than indicated...may not turn until close to 80W. That would certainly put Florida into play, as well as central and even western Cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

It appears it will likely just miss E NC per hour 156 of the 12Z GFS.

[stormlover2013]

Where did ukmet shift too?

[Ken711]

12Z GFS has stronger ridging north of Matthew at 138 hrs, increasing the risk to the NC coast.

I've been afraid the OBX are going to get impacted even if it's not a direct landfall.

[wxman57]

Looks like (according to the GFS) the faster Matthew moves, the greater the risk to the Carolinas, as the ridge will block it from turning NE. The slower it moves, the more time for the front/trof to approach from the west and steer it NE and out to sea. It's always a timing issue. The 12Z GFS is slower than the 06Z.

[otterlyspicey]

168 looks like it really begins it's jet eastward again, still easily missing the coast. Matthew really wants to avoid the USA and all signs point to that. Close, but no cigar. Also, Jamaica really looks like it has a scary situation ahead.

[jlauderdal]

I honestly believe it will go farther west than indicated...may not turn until close to 80W. That would certainly put Florida into play, as well as central and even western Cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

it wont be long until we see if that happens...a turn at 80 or beyond is big trouble for the SE US

[crimi481]

Being "trapped" is possible now, or to Mexico/ Panhandle Fl/ Greenland/ etc. Ya think? lol

Not a pro

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS trying to get everyone's attention in the SE with that run. Wow!!!

[toad strangler]

Yesterday the GFS showed a lick of the FL E coast. Today the GFS shows a harder lick. Literally every mile in movement counts.

[ThetaE]

The only reason the GFS turns east this run is because it spins up some random low to Matthew's NE that breaks up the ridge just in time to avoid US landfall. That, however, is not something I'd recommend betting on, especially since it's in the 6-7 day timeframe. If not for that low, this would've likely made landfall.

I'll upload a GIF in a minute.