ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Looks like all inner eye convection has now collapsed and a very large eye is clearly out with very deep convection building ... could see cat 5 on this deepening phase !

East or west of 55?

00Z update from the NHC placed the position at 55.0ºW, so any intensification to category 5 will be happening to the west.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/904855935574790148

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks like all inner eye convection has now collapsed and a very large eye is clearly out with very deep convection building ... could see cat 5 on this deepening phase !

East or west of 55?

00Z update from the NHC placed the position at 55.0ºW, so any intensification to category 5 will be happening to the west.

Hoping for that record. Oh well.

[NJWxHurricane]

moving due w now wsw movement is over

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050006
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 20 20170904
235700 1752N 05344W 6965 03159 0055 +094 +049 130061 062 039 000 00
235730 1753N 05343W 6969 03156 0061 +090 +051 128059 060 039 000 00
235800 1755N 05342W 6971 03154 0054 +097 +043 130059 059 037 001 00
235830 1756N 05340W 6967 03159 0049 +103 +037 130057 059 038 001 00
235900 1757N 05339W 6966 03161 0049 +106 +032 127057 057 039 001 00
235930 1758N 05338W 6967 03161 0052 +102 +040 126055 057 039 000 00
000000 1759N 05337W 6966 03165 0051 +105 +033 126054 055 040 000 00
000030 1800N 05335W 6963 03167 0049 +107 +031 126054 055 037 001 03
000100 1802N 05336W 6969 03162 0053 +103 +043 123052 054 /// /// 03
000130 1802N 05338W 6967 03164 0050 +107 +037 122051 052 /// /// 03
000200 1802N 05340W 6965 03165 0048 +106 +037 120052 053 039 000 00
000230 1802N 05343W 6967 03161 0051 +105 +033 120054 054 039 000 00
000300 1802N 05345W 6965 03162 0050 +105 +030 120055 056 040 000 00
000330 1802N 05347W 6968 03159 0049 +105 +030 122056 056 040 001 00
000400 1801N 05349W 6966 03159 0052 +100 +035 122057 057 040 000 00
000430 1801N 05352W 6969 03155 0045 +103 +035 121058 059 039 000 00
000500 1801N 05354W 6967 03155 0046 +100 +037 119059 060 038 001 00
000530 1801N 05356W 6970 03150 0047 +100 +037 118060 061 039 000 00
000600 1801N 05359W 6963 03156 0047 +100 +038 117061 061 038 001 00
000630 1801N 05401W 6970 03149 0045 +100 +040 117061 062 039 001 00
$$
;

[Michele B]

There will be mandatory evacs by Friday night if the NHC forecast is even close.

Agreed. I think the game gets moved to their bye week in week 11 or possibly to Atlanta for Sunday.

There are more important issues than a football game on Sunday to deal with. Not many as I am a huge Bucs fan, but this is right up there.

Huge Dolphins fan here I hope they move it to Thursday. We might not have power on Sunday to watch the game.

GOOD POINT!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/904825835164717056




 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/904825680248090624

[HurricaneEric]

New trend in the models is a tad bit more North of the islands which is great for them. Of course, that just means even more time for Irma to tap into those hot waters before that *likely* turn into S.Fla.

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050009
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 24 20170904
235930 1740N 05408W 7514 02524 0034 +154 +069 115065 066 039 002 00
000000 1739N 05410W 7521 02517 0035 +151 +081 117067 068 040 002 00
000030 1737N 05411W 7525 02511 0033 +152 +084 113066 066 038 005 00
000100 1736N 05413W 7512 02522 0033 +150 +083 115068 069 041 004 00
000130 1734N 05414W 7529 02500 0029 +153 +082 113068 069 040 004 00
000200 1733N 05416W 7523 02506 0022 +152 +092 115069 069 041 004 00
000230 1731N 05418W 7512 02514 0026 +147 +088 115071 072 042 005 00
000300 1730N 05419W 7528 02492 0020 +149 +093 117074 075 042 004 00
000330 1728N 05421W 7523 02496 0021 +143 +100 120077 079 043 006 00
000400 1727N 05422W 7524 02490 0016 +142 +102 117079 080 044 006 00
000430 1725N 05424W 7518 02489 0013 +140 +100 114080 081 044 007 00
000500 1724N 05426W 7518 02484 0009 +138 +093 112078 080 046 007 00
000530 1722N 05427W 7514 02486 0014 +129 +098 113082 084 046 007 00
000600 1720N 05429W 7514 02477 0008 +123 +112 118084 085 045 009 00
000630 1719N 05430W 7517 02467 0002 +120 +119 121090 092 048 008 00
000700 1717N 05432W 7503 02474 9992 +122 +120 120090 095 053 016 00
000730 1716N 05434W 7494 02481 9979 +126 +124 120088 093 057 016 03
000800 1714N 05435W 7497 02471 9963 +133 //// 128088 089 061 013 01
000830 1713N 05437W 7505 02451 9951 +137 +134 136086 089 060 015 00
000900 1712N 05438W 7513 02439 9949 +134 //// 133084 084 062 014 01

[AdamFirst]

New trend in the models is a tad bit more North of the islands which is great for them. Of course, that just means even more time for Irma to tap into those hot waters before that *likely* turn into S.Fla.

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

It may be getting to the point of too late for the Keys, but I hate to speculate on something like that.

The potential evacuation for something like this would be potentially disastrous. I don't think you can get 6 million people out of here in 3 days.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/904855829928480769

[Preemptivestrike]

I am going to get absolutely nothing accomplished this week.

Im prepared my family for how this week was going to go. Imagine how the Mets in SFL are feeling.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

The problem with this evacuation scenario is that no matter where you are in Florida, you pretty much can only go North. There's no evacuating to Naples for this. And since Irma is expected to ride up the peninsula, evacuations might ride up all the way past Lake O.

If you wait until Friday, you will be fighting everyone north of you also leaving on Friday. You're at the bottom of the pile. It will be a nightmare.

[cycloneye]

Another pass from NOAA plane comming shortly.

[BeRad954]

looks like it is going to mis the next forecast point to the N, and clouds just invaded the inner eyewall.

[hipshot]

New trend in the models is a tad bit more North of the islands which is great for them. Of course, that just means even more time for Irma to tap into those hot waters before that *likely* turn into S.Fla.

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

From what I have read from other posters, the evacuation routes could be really clogged by Friday, especially after Harvey. I would leave Thursday early and hope that is not too late.
Besides the traffic, getting gas could also be a big issue.

[itglobalsecure]

Swear to God, I just went to http://FLGetAPlan.com and made an emergency plan. It then generates your plan from your inputs, including your home address, and emergency contact you specify. When it came up on the screen in print-ready form, the name and points of contact were for someone else entirely in another part of Florida. Which means, somewhere, the database retrieval part of this little tool has failed badly, and probably because it is now being exercised under load. Hope the rest of emergency management goes better here in Florida. I am heading out by train.

[GCANE]

Latest AXBT drop from Kermit about 8 minutes ago.
A direct indication of Ocean Heat Content.
Water doesn't cool off for 100 meter deep.


Product: Bathythermal Data (SOFX01 KWBC)
Date Profile Data was Processed: September 4th, 2017 at 23:54:36Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 11L in 2017 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
AXBT Buoy Drop (Airborne eXpendable Bathythermograph)

Profile Date: September 4th, 2017
Profile Time: 23:48:46Z

Profile Coordinates: 17.646N 53.454W
Profile Location: 516 statute miles (830 km) to the NE (53°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

AXBT Channel: 16

Sea Surface Temperature: 28.20°C (82.8°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 120 m (394 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 337.5 m (1,107 ft)

[TheStormExpert]

Latest video discussion from Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904861082992463874

[floridasun78]

latest center pass radar.. wow.. amazing

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

wow see out to sea we know going affect islands soon