ATL: IKE Discussion

[NEXRAD]

anyone know a good way to monitor the location and curvature of the SW periphery of the big atlantic high pressure system

besides this?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Although tediuous, I like to take a look at visible, IR, and IRWV imagery and effectively "plot" the vectors of various cloud features in vicinity of the ridge. The RUC/2 model can also be worthwhile (though some dismiss it for tropical forecasting).

- Jay

[hiflyer]

I don't think the NHC will change the track much if any

Their past history, that I can recall, seems to be only 'nudge' when looking a couple days out....seems to be a viable procedure and I would guess it would only change if data did a radical change. Question then would be whose definition of radical would apply I would guess...grin.

[KWT]

Yep 105kts looks good, if recon can find high winds like that in the NE quad they may even up the winds a little to 105kts.

[meteorologyman]

Miami area I do kind of agree that you have dodge the bullet but not 100% certain, don't let your guard down just yet, I will wait till storm near your area (south) or past you before I would say we dodde a bullet

Remember storms are very unpredictable

[cpdaman]

NEXRAD, so the 3 hour cimms trend showing those SE/NW curved lines moving more NE ("outlining the periphery of the high is not really a good tool")? i ask nexrad cause i am concerned

[jlauderdal]

miami afd, we basically wrote this three hours ago but nonetheless the pros back us up

sofla looking better but slow down is usually a foreshadowing of a directional change, remember sofla is on the dirty side of this which IF it gets close enough makes a difference

LOOKING BEYOND TODAY, ALL INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. THE TREND THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BUT THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NORMALLY THIS MAKES AN
UNCERTAIN SCENARIO EVEN MORE SO. SO ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TREND IS MORE OPTIMISTIC NOW RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST INFORMATION. AS IT IS
RIGHT NOW, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, SQUALLY WEATHER WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN RAIN BANDS IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

Members and guests, Miami doesn't have a hurricane shield, nor does anyone living in a hurricane-active zone on our planet. Miami is a ticking bomb and another Andrew, or the Great Miami Hurricane is not a question of if it will happen but when will it happen. We have been reading a lot of unscientific, unproved posts and please, pay little attention. Always follow the NHC, the NWS, and your local authorities.

[meteorologyman]

cpdaman where are you located?

[KWT]

Very interesting Jay to see the disagreements there, did it come out before the NHC update or not?

It does seem recon is finding winds at least to suggest its holding steady and pressure around 955mbs.

Hopefully for the sake of Haiti this current westward motion lasts a while yet but I think it won't be too much longer before it takes another wobble WSW.

[hiflyer]

Think that pass will be the numbers for the 11am....

[NEXRAD]

NEXRAD, so the 3 hour cimms trend showing those SE/NW curved lines moving more NE ("outlining the periphery of the high is not really a good tool")? i ask nexrad cause i am concerned

CIMMS tends to be pretty good, but it's just one tool. Also, it can be tricky to extrapolate what will happen beyond about 6 to 12 hours with a tropical cyclone based on CIMMS (or any synoptic) data alone, as atmospheric features change. What the CIMMS shows now might be different from what it will show this afternoon, and odds are it will be different.

- Jay

[NEXRAD]

Very interesting Jay to see the disagreements there, did it come out before the NHC update or not?

It does seem recon is finding winds at least to suggest its holding steady and pressure around 955mbs.

Hopefully for the sake of Haiti this current westward motion lasts a while yet but I think it won't be too much longer before it takes another wobble WSW.

NWSFO Key West's discussion was issued at 6:55AM, so it was later than the usual "predawn" discussion. NWSFO Key West has been a bit bearish with Ike, though, compared to other NWSFO's. See, for instance, their mid-afternoon discussion from Friday:

"CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT FAVOR A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG ENOUGH SOUTH TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HENCE...MOST MEDIUM
RANGE/DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE REVEALING THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL NOT
RE-CURVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THIS LIKELY
SCENARIO...HURRICANE IKE WILL LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD BETWEEN THE ISLE
OF PINES...SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FURTHERMORE...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WOULD PROMPT HURRICANE IKE TO SLOW DOWN NEAR 80 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE."

- Jay

[rockyman]

NHC further west again.

11am

96 HR 24.5n 84.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

120 HR 26.0n 86.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

6 hours ago:
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W 110 KT

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[tolakram]

[ColdFusion]

11AM 5-day forecast, gonna make a lot of NOLA residents uneasy....

[Pearl River]

From 1100 Disco:

IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[shah8]

That new map implies a direction change of the storm from its current heading. Insta-verify!

[KWT]

That track would probably weaken Ike a good deal more then the NHC shows, bet it'd just a marignal 65kt hurricane if that track were to happen...

Also note its got a terrible set-up for the T&C and other islands nearby...

Also I think lowering the winds to 95kts maybe a little premature but there you go!

[Sanibel]

NHC is opting for a short-term solution with that west shift. They are still up in the air about the shortwave trough. You are seeing a track that could change quickly.

[Grease Monkey]

NHC further west again.

11am

96 HR 24.5n 84.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

120 HR 26.0n 86.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

6 hours ago:
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W 110 KT

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

I assume recon data wasn't fully figured into this update.