ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[CrazyC83]

If it stays really weak, could it just move due west into the Caribbean Sea?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running. Keeps insisting on a westbound track albeit weak, looks like it is shifting left. At this rate it may end up in the WCAR south of Cuba. Then things will drastically change as for its future and prospects for development in my opinion.

It could potentiall by a serious CONUS player down the road if it moved into the NW CAR
and conditions became favorable.

[Bocadude85]

what time does recon depart?

[gatorcane]

If it stays really weak, could it just move due west into the Caribbean Sea?

Possibly, 12Z GFS is even more left on this run.......I am thinking it could, who knows.

[Aric Dunn]

ummmm.. thats still north of cuba .. and its still a closed low there too just no "L"

[southerngale]

We can't even get this thing past the islands and you have it the GOM already.
If it made it in there (GOM) it would be short lived if it survived.

Actually, he said "not withstanding the potential for this entering the gulf..." not that it WAS going into the GOM. But who the heck knows where it's going, anyway? Nobody knows for sure. A few days ago, you said it wouldn't get anywhere near the Caribbean. It looks pretty close to it right now.

who said it would not be near the carrib?

Stormcenter. That's who I was replying to (about his post to you).

[wxman57]

If it stays really weak, could it just move due west into the Caribbean Sea?

That would be its death,then. I do think that if there is still a center by Friday, then it'll pass south of PR, probably right over the DR. At that point, though, it may just be an area of thunderstorms. I did mention some pretty heavy rainfall across PR and the DR on Friday/Saturday in my forecasts. No significant wind, though. NHC will probably adjust their track another 30-50 miles left on the next advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

what time does recon depart?

should be on the run way right now..

[Aric Dunn]

yep just took off


URNT15 KNHC 021628
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 02 20090902
161830 1742N 06448W 0127 00000 0119 +348 +286 360000 000 999 999 23
161900 1742N 06448W 0126 00000 0117 +336 +283 360000 000 999 999 23
161930 1742N 06448W 0122 00000 0114 +334 +281 360000 000 999 999 23
162000 1742N 06448W 0121 00000 0112 +317 +279 360000 000 999 999 23
162030 1742N 06449W 0117 00000 0109 +309 +278 360000 000 999 999 23
162100 1742N 06449W 0114 00000 0106 +306 +276 360000 000 999 999 23
162130 1742N 06449W 0111 00000 0102 +315 +274 360000 000 999 999 23
162200 1742N 06449W 0113 00000 0108 +307 +272 360000 000 999 999 23
162230 1742N 06449W 0112 00000 0103 +295 +270 360000 000 999 999 23
162300 1742N 06449W 0113 00000 0104 +300 +268 360000 000 999 999 23
162330 1742N 06449W 0113 00000 0104 +308 +266 360000 000 999 999 23
162400 1742N 06449W 0112 00000 0103 +313 +266 360000 000 999 999 23
162430 1742N 06449W 0110 00000 0102 +310 +265 360000 000 999 999 23
162500 1742N 06449W 0107 00000 0099 +297 +265 065005 012 999 999 23
162530 1742N 06448W 0057 00029 0107 +284 +263 064015 017 999 999 03
162600 1742N 06447W 9826 00264 0127 +258 +258 051017 018 999 999 03
162630 1742N 06445W 9548 00497 0112 +236 +236 056017 019 999 999 03
162700 1742N 06443W 9229 00808 9990 +210 +999 055016 018 999 999 05
162730 1742N 06442W 8743 01292 9990 +184 +999 071022 024 999 999 05
162800 1742N 06440W 8371 01668 9990 +170 +999 079021 022 999 999 05
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Where is recon departing from today?

[Ivanhater]

12z models. big shift west from yesterday

[Aric Dunn]

Where is recon departing from today?

well looks like its really close lol
st.Croix probably..

[Air Force Met]

If it stays really weak, could it just move due west into the Caribbean Sea?

Think this thing has a death wish. I believe a see the main LLC beginning to move our from under the convection. Looks like 16.5/60

If it opens up into a wave...then yes...probably will move west into the CAR

[Aric Dunn]

URNT15 KNHC 021638
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 03 20090902
162830 1742N 06439W 8043 02012 9990 +158 +999 075021 023 999 999 05
162900 1741N 06437W 7758 02323 9990 +147 +999 071023 023 999 999 05
162930 1741N 06436W 7484 02620 9990 +136 +999 074022 023 999 999 05
163000 1741N 06434W 7243 02898 9990 +119 +999 073016 018 999 999 05
163030 1741N 06432W 7121 03042 9990 +120 +999 062011 012 029 000 05
163100 1741N 06431W 6957 03238 9990 +111 +999 055008 009 028 000 05
163130 1741N 06429W 6727 03526 9990 +092 +999 027007 008 999 999 05
163200 1741N 06427W 6511 03796 9990 +074 +999 032008 010 999 999 05
163230 1740N 06425W 6323 04040 9990 +060 +999 043007 008 999 999 05
163300 1740N 06423W 6152 04264 9990 +044 +999 042005 007 031 001 05
163330 1740N 06422W 6001 04467 9990 +036 +999 003005 006 031 000 05
163400 1739N 06420W 5846 04659 9990 +029 +999 333008 009 999 999 05
163430 1739N 06418W 5697 04862 9990 +017 +999 321008 009 999 999 05
163500 1738N 06416W 5549 05094 9990 +003 +999 349005 005 999 999 05
163530 1738N 06414W 5410 05295 0309 -015 +999 004006 006 999 999 05
163600 1738N 06412W 5281 05486 0321 -029 +999 022008 009 999 999 05
163630 1737N 06410W 5156 05676 0334 -039 +999 035008 008 999 999 05
163700 1737N 06409W 5067 05823 0343 -048 +999 047007 007 031 000 01
163730 1736N 06407W 4968 05972 0352 -054 +999 040005 006 030 000 05
163800 1736N 06405W 4874 06123 0361 -061 +999 014006 007 030 000 05
$$
;

[JTD]

If it stays really weak, could it just move due west into the Caribbean Sea?

That would be its death,then. I do think that if there is still a center by Friday, then it'll pass south of PR, probably right over the DR. At that point, though, it may just be an area of thunderstorms. I did mention some pretty heavy rainfall across PR and the DR on Friday/Saturday in my forecasts. No significant wind, though. NHC will probably adjust their track another 30-50 miles left on the next advisory.

So conditions are not favorable at all in the Carribbean 57? Or did you just mean that a DR ht would kill it?

[cajungal]

looks like a huge shift from yesterday! maybe getting into the Florida straits?

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS sending Erika up FL's west coast as a closed system at 180 hours. This is after passing through the FL straits at 144 hours (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif)

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS sending Erika up FL's west coast as a closed system at 180 hours. This is after passing through the FL straits at 144 hours (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif)

yep thats a very close approach to DR it will probably make life worse for it .. but you never know i guess

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS sending Erika up FL's west coast as a closed system at 180 hours. This is after passing through the FL straits at 144 hours (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif)

Into the gulf..looks like this recurve scenario is becoming less likely. GFS stronger on this run as well

[wxman57]

So conditions are not favorable at all in the Carribbean 57? Or did you just mean that a DR ht would kill it?

We've had dry, sinking air (along with accelerating easterly low-level winds) in the Caribbean all season. Every wave moving through has lost its convection. And interacting with the DR won't help Erika. Looks like a rainmaker. However, JB is still forecasting a large and dangerous hurricane in the Bahamas late this weekend. He does have a strong east coast hurricane hit bias, though.