Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Portastorm is really onto this =P disecting frame by frame as it comes out

Anything to delay starting on today's "honey do" list!

Thru 48 hours, the center of the high looks a tad further west than 0z run.

[srainhoutx]

Bet the S/W digs a bit further S this run and closes off later.

[Tireman4]

Keep pushing it south Srainhoutx!!!

[Portastorm]

I dunno srainhoutx ... through 84 hours the upper level energy is roughly in the same spot it was for the 96-hour 0z run. The only difference I see so far at the 500mb level is that the trough was sharper in the 0z run than the 12z. But I'm sure I'm probably missing something.

[txagwxman]

12z GFS deeper further east...no precip. Less intense for Texas

[wxman57]

Still looks like an extreme cold event for the Deep South and nothing more. The precipitation will shut down fairly quickly after frontal passage on Thursday. Yes, there may be some light rain lingering a few hours after frontal passage, and there is a slight chance that there could be a sleet pellet or two mixed in right as the precipitation ends, but that's about it. This front will blast all the way south to the Bay of Campeche without looking back. The air over Texas will be way too dry to support any precipitation on Thursday night or Friday.

The one chance for some light snow across the Southern Plains would be from the secondary reinforcing front arriving late Saturday and Sunday as per the recent GFS/ECMWF runs. There might just be enough moisture along that frontal boundary to drop a few snowflakes in north TX and OK.

[Portastorm]

Deeper further east...no precip. Probably more realistic.

Yep, looking that way. In fact, the 0z run had the upper level energy centered in north central Kansas at 6 am Thursday. With the 12z run, it is now in Missouri at that time. 12z further east with the upper low.

[Ntxw]

Just to show how difficult it is to get snow in Texas. At least we all are very sure that pretty much everyone will get thunderstorms and HEAT not too long from now

[Portastorm]

BLECH!!! That is what I have to say about this 12z GFS run.

Dry Arctic cold through Saturday. No signs of upper-level energy out west. Booo!

Who needs it?! This run is like serving a basket of freshly made tortilla chips with no salsa or queso.

[Ntxw]

BLECH!!! That is what I have to say about this 12z GFS run.

Dry Arctic cold through Saturday. No signs of upper-level energy out west. Booo!

Who needs it?! This run is like serving a basket of freshly made tortilla chips with no salsa or queso.

Don't fret Portastorm, If it can change one run dis-favorably, what's to stop it from changing the other direction? Though with last night's EC im a bit less optimistic.

[srainhoutx]

BLECH!!! That is what I have to say about this 12z GFS run.

Dry Arctic cold through Saturday. No signs of upper-level energy out west. Booo!

Who needs it?! This run is like serving a basket of freshly made tortilla chips with no salsa or queso.

Portastorm ya got to be patient. I suspect everyone will get a chance at some real wintry precip before this winter is over and Lucy will finally be shut up. It's only January 3rd after all

[Portastorm]

BLECH!!! That is what I have to say about this 12z GFS run.

Dry Arctic cold through Saturday. No signs of upper-level energy out west. Booo!

Who needs it?! This run is like serving a basket of freshly made tortilla chips with no salsa or queso.

Don't fret Portastorm, If it can change one run dis-favorably, what's to stop it from changing the other direction? Though with last night's EC im a bit less optimistic.

Thanks Ntxw. Yes, I know how variable these runs can be and how they promise the world one moment and take it away the next. Thus my avatar on here and my long-standing romance with Lucy (i.e. model promises of wintry fun for Texas)!

You bring up a good point about this GFS run looking more like the 0z Euro and the "further east" trend. Something to watch when the lunchtime Euro and CMC roll out.

There's no doubt in my mind that we're going to see an "Arctic outbreak" later this coming week. In my mind the questions are how long does the airmass hold and what surprises or "fun" will spin up out west or south and give us a shot at precip over the weekend.

[Ntxw]

Anyone see energy in the Pacific that possibly enter and giving the models a rough go? I can see the storm that digs south with the front, I also see energy further south W of California and Baja. Not really experienced looking at though...

[txagwxman]

BLECH!!! That is what I have to say about this 12z GFS run.

Dry Arctic cold through Saturday. No signs of upper-level energy out west. Booo!

Who needs it?! This run is like serving a basket of freshly made tortilla chips with no salsa or queso.

Don't fret Portastorm, If it can change one run dis-favorably, what's to stop it from changing the other direction? Though with last night's EC im a bit less optimistic.

Thanks Ntxw. Yes, I know how variable these runs can be and how they promise the world one moment and take it away the next. Thus my avatar on here and my long-standing romance with Lucy (i.e. model promises of wintry fun for Texas)!

You bring up a good point about this GFS run looking more like the 0z Euro and the "further east" trend. Something to watch when the lunchtime Euro and CMC roll out.

There's no doubt in my mind that we're going to see an "Arctic outbreak" later this coming week. In my mind the questions are how long does the airmass hold and what surprises or "fun" will spin up out west or south and give us a shot at precip over the weekend.

I would rather see low 20s in Houston vs upper 10s...Fine with me...

Still going to get cold, cold enough for me. Atlanta may see low teens with this.

[Portastorm]

Still looks like an extreme cold event for the Deep South and nothing more. The precipitation will shut down fairly quickly after frontal passage on Thursday. Yes, there may be some light rain lingering a few hours after frontal passage, and there is a slight chance that there could be a sleet pellet or two mixed in right as the precipitation ends, but that's about it. This front will blast all the way south to the Bay of Campeche without looking back. The air over Texas will be way too dry to support any precipitation on Thursday night or Friday.

The one chance for some light snow across the Southern Plains would be from the secondary reinforcing front arriving late Saturday and Sunday as per the recent GFS/ECMWF runs. There might just be enough moisture along that frontal boundary to drop a few snowflakes in north TX and OK.

Thanks Wxman57 for chiming in. We do appreciate your posts and seasoned comments! I wish we had more pro mets posting on the Winter Weather forum like we used to in years past.

[Ntxw]

Cold that bites is no fun, I would take 30 degrees with snow falling vs 20 or 10 and a dry wind any day. It might as well be warm for fun outdoor activities.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont understand why on every run of the gfs, there is a low moving into west texas at the same time as the cold front, that suddenly dissappears off the map as soon as the front hits texas.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM still showing some QPF on Friday. We shall see...

[iorange55]

Showing a semi decent amount the frame before for North Texas. Guess we'll just have to wait till about a day before like always. One day I hope a huge storm comes where we know 4-5 days in advanced that we'll get something. Waiting is a pain.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM Hour 120



Hour 132



Hour 144