ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

How strong was it in Puerto Rico? I definitely believe it was a hurricane at first landfall, but based on damage reports, maybe even stronger than first thought? My estimate last night was 65 kt.

[RL3AO]

638
URNT15 KNHC 221440
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 26 20110822
143030 2022N 06710W 6948 03176 0055 +090 +055 103045 046 049 001 00
143100 2022N 06712W 6950 03174 0055 +090 +063 098043 044 048 000 03
143130 2022N 06714W 6949 03176 0054 +090 +063 099044 044 047 000 03
143200 2022N 06717W 6951 03172 0050 +093 +060 099040 041 047 000 03
143230 2022N 06719W 6947 03176 0041 +099 +059 098040 041 047 000 03
143300 2022N 06721W 6949 03173 0041 +100 +054 098041 042 047 000 03
143330 2022N 06723W 6949 03173 0040 +100 +060 097044 044 047 000 03
143400 2022N 06726W 6950 03171 0039 +099 +066 093044 044 047 000 00
143430 2022N 06728W 6951 03169 0039 +100 +060 091043 044 045 001 03
143500 2022N 06730W 6947 03173 0043 +095 +065 091046 046 045 000 03
143530 2022N 06732W 6950 03169 0046 +093 +066 092048 049 043 002 03
143600 2023N 06735W 6950 03169 0057 +085 +062 091050 051 043 000 03
143630 2023N 06737W 6951 03169 0061 +081 +067 093049 049 043 000 03
143700 2023N 06739W 6947 03176 0064 +080 +070 092049 049 044 000 03
143730 2023N 06742W 6950 03172 0062 +080 +073 091050 050 046 000 03
143800 2023N 06744W 6951 03172 0063 +079 +079 090050 051 045 000 03
143830 2023N 06746W 6947 03177 0069 +075 //// 089050 051 043 000 05
143900 2023N 06749W 6939 03182 //// +069 //// 089053 055 041 002 01
143930 2023N 06751W 6948 03173 0065 +077 //// 089053 055 042 000 05
144000 2023N 06754W 6951 03172 0063 +081 +079 090047 050 041 000 03
$$
;

[crimi481]

Based on the current strenght of the ridge (and few reliable models) - there is also possibility of Irene heading more west than we think.

If she gets to Cat 2 or 3, creates own enviorment, causing the dipping trough to have little effect on Irene, keeping her on w.n.w. track accross Fl - to E. Gulf -then to central N. Gulf coast.

Its a possibility - but niot a fact

[StarmanHDB]

How strong was it in Puerto Rico? I definitely believe it was a hurricane at first landfall, but based on damage reports, maybe even stronger than first thought? My estimate last night was 65 kt.

TWC announced that it is a high Cat 1 with some of the mountainous areas reporting Cat 2 winds.

[Frank2]

Lots of different opinions (including mine), but as another poster said right now the trough is looking potent on WV and the timing for it to move off the SE coast good enough for it to shunt the high to the east and allow Irene to turn to the right...

Frank

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 26:

[CrazyC83]

How strong was it in Puerto Rico? I definitely believe it was a hurricane at first landfall, but based on damage reports, maybe even stronger than first thought? My estimate last night was 65 kt.

TWC announced that it is a high Cat 1 with some of the mountainous areas reporting Cat 2 winds.

Those were at elevated locations though. Based on all the reports, adjusted to sea level, I would estimate now that the landfall intensity was 70 kt, and it only weakened to 65 kt over land.

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of different opinions (including mine), but as another poster said right now the trough is looking potent on WV and the timing for it to move off the SE coast good enough for it to shunt the high to the east and allow Irene to turn to the right...

Frank

I agree timing and the strength of the trough is going to be the difference maker in the long term track in day 4-5

[sandyb]

I have nothing to go on but models but it looks like us here in NC need to start getting ready, I know they are looking at Ga/SC but how many times does that happen, I want to be ready and I hope everyone else along the eastern seaboard will do the same.

First post here although I have read basically this entire thread. You guys are doing an epic job. I'm learning a lot.

But I would like to remind you that while a GA/SC border landfall is rare, it does happen and has happened. Just because it doesn't happen often doesn't mean it can't. I'm personally not buying this huge eastern shift at all. I'm figuring on a landfall somewhere between Jacksonville and Myrtle Beach. I was in the eastern GOM camp with the Ukie and the GDFL but all these northward shifts are making me doubtful.

i agree with you anywhere from florida to NC i know it has happend for Ga/SC and it can i think we should all wait, watch and get ready for it never hurts to have extra food and water etc in the house it will get used if not on a hurricane then maybe a family cook out!

[CrazyC83]

Lots of different opinions (including mine), but as another poster said right now the trough is looking potent on WV and the timing for it to move off the SE coast good enough for it to shunt the high to the east and allow Irene to turn to the right...

Frank

I agree timing and the strength of the trough is going to be the difference maker in the long term track in day 4-5

I'm starting to sense a steering current breakdown. If that happens, who knows where Irene is going.

[RL3AO]

063
URNT15 KNHC 221450
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 27 20110822
144030 2023N 06756W 6947 03176 0058 +082 +082 089045 045 042 001 03
144100 2023N 06758W 6946 03178 0057 +086 +083 089046 047 042 004 00
144130 2023N 06800W 6949 03178 0053 +094 +065 089044 045 041 002 03
144200 2024N 06803W 6951 03174 0053 +095 +059 088044 045 040 000 03
144230 2024N 06805W 6950 03168 0046 +093 +056 090043 043 040 000 03
144300 2024N 06807W 6946 03173 0047 +090 +059 090044 044 041 000 00
144330 2024N 06810W 6955 03166 0053 +090 +067 088045 045 040 000 03
144400 2024N 06812W 6946 03180 0055 +090 +073 083044 044 040 000 03
144430 2024N 06814W 6953 03173 0057 +087 +068 086041 043 039 000 03
144500 2024N 06816W 6953 03176 0061 +088 +065 088040 041 040 000 03
144530 2024N 06819W 6949 03179 0059 +091 +054 088041 042 039 001 03
144600 2024N 06821W 6949 03182 0063 +089 +055 088042 044 040 000 03
144630 2024N 06823W 6950 03180 0063 +089 +056 085041 043 042 000 03
144700 2024N 06825W 6945 03188 0064 +090 +058 083039 040 040 000 03
144730 2024N 06828W 6950 03180 0071 +084 +062 084040 041 039 000 03
144800 2024N 06830W 6949 03183 0071 +083 +077 081039 040 040 002 00
144830 2024N 06832W 6947 03185 0072 +082 +073 081038 039 039 000 03
144900 2025N 06834W 6952 03179 0073 +081 +073 081039 040 037 000 03
144930 2025N 06837W 6949 03186 0077 +080 +076 080040 040 037 000 03
145000 2025N 06839W 6950 03185 0078 +080 +076 082041 042 037 000 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 27:

[CronkPSU]

11 AM advisory running real late or weather underground just not updating? usually they have it instantly

[Bocadude85]

I would think hurricane warnings should be issued for the SE Bahamas

[maxx9512]

[qu Aric, I have to agree with you with regards to the digging trough, and its relationship to the larger mid-level vortex over East/Central Canada. A couple days ago, I was actually fearful of this very event that appears to be unfolding now. First of all, looking at the 06Z GFS and simillarly comparing the prior 06Z NAM and 12Z NAM that just came out ( "no NAM groans from the audiance, though not reliable for specific TC development etc., it is highly used regarding mid latitude upper air forecasting ), there just IS NO OTHER digging trough that I can see. The primary vortex is pulling the shortwave energy back up and cyclonically around itself. Furthermore I do not buy into the logic that even after having weakened the western extension of the large ridge presently driving Irene WNW, that a ample weakness will simply remain. August Climotology aside, a 24/30 hr. NAM 06Z/12Z( respectivly ) comparison, very easily depicts the western extension of the 500mb - 588 line having filled from what was only about 72W, to now extending westward to about 76W. Furthermore, 500mb winds ( off Vero Beach, Fl ) 24 hours out ( at 6Z ) were S.W., where the 12Z for the same time period now shows "north" of west, thus depicting the "Texas Death Ridge" appearing to extend eastward and much closer to bridging the W. Atlantic high. Ironically, I would more likely make a short term argument for a slight bit more NW motion in the "near term", however after about 24 hours, just cannot see any reason that would preclude Irene from slowing down (due to the somewhat weaker low to mid level ridge), but also would anticipate a bend back to about 280. Furthermore, I see absolutley no other component that would impact a motion change, and thus the weak and building ridge should continue to drive the deepening hurricane on this steady course right across Florida's longitude and right on into the Gulf. Due to increasing heights over the Southeast Conus from the Texas high expanding eastward, I could see a scenario for significant slow down ( maybe even a COL ) near or over Florida's longitude. I believe greatest threat exists anywhere from Vero Beach, southward to potentially south of Mainland Florida/Florida Straights. Given the fresh upper air soundings that I beleive are being taken today, I would anticipate the GFS ( and HRWF ) to show tonights 0Z models to show a more westward swing in their forecasts, with the TVCN to immediatly follow. If I were to be right, than might expect Florida "Watches" to go in effect daybreak Tuesdayquote="Aric Dunn"]

Look at that trough digging folks on WV loop...look at the clouds diving down over the great lakes. Looks potent if you ask me.

I can't see how the Bermuda High is going to hold on with that kind of trough. It's been a troughy summer for the East Coast of the United States that is for sure.

Kudos to the ECMWF for sniffing this out days in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

but look at the main energy the Low is lifting NE that trough will begin to lift soon. beside its not this trough that eventually models show turning it.

[eastcoastFL]

11 AM advisory running real late or weather underground just not updating? usually they have it instantly

its not even 11am yet

[Extratropical94]

Based on recent Recon, it appears 70 kt and 988mb will be the 11 am intensity.

It is.

[umguy]

it ususally out a few mintues prior

[fci]

11 AM advisory running real late or weather underground just not updating? usually they have it instantly

its not even 11am yet

They usually issue advisories 10 minutes or so before the scheduled hour.

[gatorcane]

11 AM advisory running real late or weather underground just not updating? usually they have it instantly

its not even 11am yet

They usually issue advisories 10 minutes or so before the scheduled hour.

likely coordinating new watches and warnings....