ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

Two atmospheric features that have been missing are a somewhat more favorable MJO and a CCKW. Both of those atmospheric features are moving E into the Caribbean Sea from the EPAC this morning and we are seeing general rising air with instability begin to increase across the Western Atlantic Basin.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... _vp200.png

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... _vp200.png

I read that elsewhere too. Well maybe the MJO will do its mojo next week.

[tolakram]

A couple more saved GIFS. These are much too large to embed, here are the links.

http://i.imgur.com/Jcn0mMZ.gifv

http://i.imgur.com/m7MC1Fq.gifv

[JaxGator]

Well, looks like we have both lower convergence (1) and upper divergence (2).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8conv.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8dvg.GIF

[NDG]

Cayo Coco, Cuba, is now reporting WNW winds telling me that the circulation might be getting better defined and closer to the deep convection now.

[HurriGuy]

We are getting an ASCAT scan in about 40 minutes. Please be a good one...

[JabNOLA]

Check out the Miami long range. I believe the center is just coming into range and appears closed. It's a long way out so looks can be deceiving but notice how the showers never cross into the center. Someone please post a legal link.

[tolakram]

Check out the Miami long range. I believe the center is just coming into range and appears closed. It's a long way out so looks can be deceiving but notice how the showers never cross into the center. Someone please post a legal link.

Remember from a distance you are seeing the MLC, not the LLC.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769533291615715328

[ronjon]

We are getting an ASCAT scan in about 40 minutes. Please be a good one...

Yeah this hopefully will give us a good idea of the geometry and location of the center.

[Dean4Storms]

This convection is still to the SE of the Wave Axis and highest Vorticity, we need convection further to the NW within the top area of that wave. Still a good deal of organization needed here.

[HurriGuy]

Those storms are still racing in trying to cover the entire circulation

[NDG]

Well, looks like we have both lower convergence (1) and upper divergence (2).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8conv.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8dvg.GIF

Yeah, one thing that has a lot more of compared to yesterday morning is UL divergence, is really helping in convection keep firing up.
Northerly Mid level shear has also significantly decreased.

[HurriGuy]

Although the HWRF is not good for genesis, I just want to say that the past several runs have been absolutely spot on in the placement of the convection in the area the circulation is now. It never really had it over the center either

[NDG]

This convection is still to the SE of the Wave Axis and highest Vorticity, we need convection further to the NW within the top area of that wave. Still a good deal of organization needed here.

Is not a wave axis, even the NHC's TWOs state that it is a low pressure center.

[NDG]

Although the HWRF is not good for genesis, I just want to say that the past several runs have been absolutely spot on in the placement of the convection in the area the circulation is now. It never really had it over the center either

Yeah, I saw that earlier this morning, I went back to the previous runs they were pretty spot on on convection firing up this morning near the low pressure center.

[NDG]

More evidence of a closed surface low south of Andros Island.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Before anyone gets complacent or thinks this is done...in 2005 there was tropical depression 10 that died off obituaries written only later to become tropical depression 12 as it got closer to FL...and we all know how that played out...it aint over till its over

[SapphireSea]

This convection is still to the SE of the Wave Axis and highest Vorticity, we need convection further to the NW within the top area of that wave. Still a good deal of organization needed here.

Is not a wave axis, even the NHC's TWOs state that it is a low pressure center.

I believe it's an elongated trough with an axis or embedded area of lowest pressure. If it was a closed center at the surface it would meet the TD criteria. So maybe at mid levels one can track a center, but at surface it would still be an axis.

[Dean4Storms]

This convection is still to the SE of the Wave Axis and highest Vorticity, we need convection further to the NW within the top area of that wave. Still a good deal of organization needed here.

Is not a wave axis, even the NHC's TWOs state that it is a low pressure center.

OK, Trough Axis.

[Tuffy]

It strikes me that the HWRF picked up on something that is visible now. There are actually TWO possible LLC areas: Our focus just N of Cuba and an area SE of Nassau. The model bounced these a time or two and, then ignored the east one. I agree with that, but can wonder what we would "see" if the more southerly circulation really had no life left. Why would we not wonder about development of the second area? ONLY the lack of model recognition? Think I'd see it differently if I lived in Nassau. Sure looks like tight circulation there to me. Just MLC and ULC? Lots of convection there now.

[NDG]

This is where I now see the low pressure center to be, which makes sense because Cayo Coco just to the south of it is now reporting WNW winds.