ATL: IRMA - Models
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NJWxHurricane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=216
Gonna be close. That high is closing, but Irma in that position still has a shot to hook east or loop. That's a shock to me. 1 day later and the door is slammed shut.
Gonna be close. That high is closing, but Irma in that position still has a shot to hook east or loop. That's a shock to me. 1 day later and the door is slammed shut.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:CMC Ensembles
Are they converging towards FL?
No, if anything they are less clustered than 00z
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
OTS looks like?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
sma10 wrote:Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....
first 4 days its more south and west.. after is when it changes.. the models just do not know what to do with the trough yet.. way to early to tell.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Alyono wrote:EC does NOT build a ridge to the NE. May allow this to go to Canada instead of the USA
ridge is there...but second trough below it is blocking it from having any steering influence....at least until it reaches the far NE.
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
There you have it models NOW including the ECMWF showing a recurve hoping this trend continues..
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Feeling better here in the Wilmington, NC area. GFS had me worried some, but I trust ECMWF more in this case. It is still early, but I like the way the ECMWF is trending. 
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NJWxHurricane
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
The Euro has no idea what it wants to do with Irma in the last couple days. Even if this storm ends up recurving, I won't say this will be a huge win for the model.
Last edited by galaxy401 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Lots of scenarios still on the table. A monster cane in or around the Bahamas on a 180 hour plus model is still to close for comfort. The final chapter of this book is a long way off.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SFLcane wrote:There you have it models NOW including the ECMWF showing a recurve hoping this trend continues..
That was just one run, but breathing a bit more now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
NJWxHurricane wrote:massive cave to the GFS this run imo
The models just don't know what to do with the trough yet and they will not until this nears the islands.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Finally! An out to sea run.. Figured this was coming. It was just a matter of time
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wxmann_91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
sma10 wrote:Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....
It's Day 8+ lol... would be more unusual if it did not flip-flip.
Inside Day 7 the models have been fairly consistent in their solutions.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
just have to wait a few more days.. once it start turning after this wsw to SW motion completes. so we wait some more
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
wxmann_91 wrote:sma10 wrote:Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....
It's Day 8+ lol... would be more unusual if it did not flip-flip.
Inside Day 7 the models have been fairly consistent in their solutions.
flags flapping in the wind
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
honestly this still has a ways to go. I don't know about in the US but down here models handle these troughs / trough extensions pretty terribly in the medium- long term.
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Something to remember...RL3AO pointed out that statistics show that 5 to 7 day forecasts confidence is lower when a typhoon is recurving out of the WPAC. I'm not sure where he got that information from...just something he posted a few days ago.
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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