ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

There is no EWRC to speak of at the moment. It will make landfall way before any EWRC processes begin. Most likely it’s still intensifying

[sponger]

Storm chaser Brett Adair relocating to Mexico Beach to try and intercept the eye. Passed a research team just East of Tyndall setting up a observation tower. We will see if it survives. May be some amazing data.

Mexico Beach is only a few miles from me here in Panama City.

There’s no way I’d leave the concrete structure I’m in to catch the eye.

Not faulting a fellow chaser just trying to figure out if Mexico Beach is survivable in a vehicle.

Winds starting to howl there now. On Beach just past CR 386. Running out of time.

https://livestormchasing.com/map

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Nothing on radar indicates weakening nor do the HH planes indicate any sort of degregation of structure other than what may be the beginnings of an EWRC. The odd-shaped eye you're seeing is the result of vorticies in the eye/eyewall, which is indicative of an extremely powerful hurricane. Michael has less than 3-4 hours before landfall, it simply doesn't have time to weaken much.

[ronyan]

Looks like the intensity models from yesterday that showed a 930mb landfall were pretty accurate, unfortunately. I had a friend in Destin that just managed to evacuate at the last minute. But the way it looks now that area should avoid the core.

[ozonepete]

This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.

[JBCycloneStan]

This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]

Almost down to three mesovortices

[plasticup]

all signs are that the storm surge will be historic

At low tide, fortunately

When your difference between high and low tide is like a foot, it really doesn't make a big difference.

Did not realize this!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Keep those pics of the eye coming.

Don’t have time to check other sites.

I have a feeling I’ll be here for awhile. Will go to beach after worst has passed and look for survivors.

Will also cut trees to help clear path across bridge for first responders.

Watching Brett Adair in Mexico beach right now trying to find an elevated spot...there really are none except a few more feet on the N side of 98. It's getting pretty rough there. There are no real concrete decks or condos there. El Governor hotel is right on the beach and the surf is close to the structure now.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1050040977308770304

[SconnieCane]

Blue shed was at night though.

I'm afraid there isn't going to be much left of Mexico Beach, Highland View/Port St. Joe, possibly Appalachicola and a few of the slightly inland communities like White City and Overstreet.

[supercane4867]

Based on radar motion it’s heading straight for Mexico Beach

[Ken711]

This radar loop shows the polygonal structure of the eye wall very well. Watching this should help you see one reason why hurricane eyes can wobble as the move forward. There are other forces involved, but this shape definitely allows for back and forth wiggling. Fascinating stuff.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/eai73rr.gif [/url]

What's your best guess on landfall location?

[MississippiWx]

Recon about to sample the NW quad, the center, and the SE quad. The SE quad is likely the strongest due to motion. Last shot at attaining Cat 5 status.

[TexWx]

Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?

[ronyan]

Recon about to sample the NW quad, the center, and the SE quad. The SE quad is likely the strongest due to motion. Last shot at attaining Cat 5 status.

Well it can be changed in the post analysis but I expect 145-150 landfall strength.

[Raebie]

Keep those pics of the eye coming.

Don’t have time to check other sites.

I have a feeling I’ll be here for awhile. Will go to beach after worst has passed and look for survivors.

Will also cut trees to help clear path across bridge for first responders.

Watching Brett Adair in Mexico beach right now trying to find an elevated spot...there really are none except a few more feet on the N side of 98. It's getting pretty rough there. There are no real concrete decks or condos there. El Governor hotel is right on the beach and the surf is close to the structure now.

Where are you watching him? Link please?

[Raebie]

Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?

Please post the link to Adair. Can't find it.

[Laser30033003]

https://livestormchasing.com/map

[Extratropical94]

919.9 mb extrapolated on latest pass

[sweetpea]

Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?

Please post the link to Adair. Can't find it.

Here you go

https://livestormchasing.com/map