Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Here we go again with more flood advisories and warnings as the grounds in Puerto Rico continue to be saturated.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1231 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

PRC007-021-025-031-061-063-087-127-137-139-201830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0395.091120T1631Z-091120T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1231 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE
TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS THROUGH
AT LEAST 230 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1234 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

PRC013-017-039-054-091-101-141-145-201930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0396.091120T1634Z-091120T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-UTUADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
1234 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...UTUADO...BARCELONETA...MANATI...
VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.
DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 330 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6639 1828 6637 1827 6669 1847 6670

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1253 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

PRC005-071-099-201845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.091120T1653Z-091120T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-AGUADILLA PR-
1253 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA AND AGUADILLA

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1249 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...PONDING OF WATERS ON ROADWAYS AND BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH 245 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

The very last paragraph says it all about why the many flood advisories and warnings since last sunday.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH/TUTT NOW
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER EAST WHILE
THE UPPER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOSTLY SUBSIDENT PATTERN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE TRAILING THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS ONCE AGAIN INITIATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AND DISSIPATED
AFTER SUNSET LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON SATURDAY....FAIRLY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL INHIBIT AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE EXPECTED
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY . THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL VARIATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/MOISTURE SURGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THEREAFTER...AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK EXPECT PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH MORE OF THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION WITH EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS IN THE EAST...
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST AND
INTERIOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 23Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST 21/16Z. IN ADDITION...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT...WITH ASH NEARING...BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF...TKPK AT THIS TIME.

.CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RECEIVED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY...NOVEMBER 2009 IS NOW THE 4TH WETTEST
NOVEMBER ON RECORD. THE WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WAS NOVEMBER
1979...WHEN A TOTAL OF 15.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN.

[Gustywind]

Tkanks for all these nice infos Luis. Hope not too much from this thing in your island, that could be very worrying, but let's wait and see what could really happen...
Off topic the BIG strike expected in Guadeloupe is confirmed for the 24th, and ...the 25th of November! That means streak days. I will keep you informed as usual and as possible.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

PRC101-143-145-210330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0034.091120T2129Z-091121T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
529 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 1130 PM AST

* VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE RIO CIBUCO AND RIO INDIO BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...IS LEADING TO A SLOW RISE OF RIO CIBUCO AND RIO INDIO
AT 520 PM AST...THE U.S.G.S. RIVER GAGE ALONG THE RIO CIBUCO
INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVEL WAS NEAR FLOOD STAGE...BUT REPORT
FROM PREMA OFFICIAL INDICATED THAT RIO INDIO WAS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
RIO CIBUCO AND RIO INDIO AND ITS TRIBUTARIES...OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD
ALSO OCCUR. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS
TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES./ BCS

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. ALSO...ANY VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT
WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS./ BCS

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Hoping all of you are having a good weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOSTLY SUBSIDENT PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL DOPPLER CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT...ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERIOR
SECTION AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CU LINES WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER EL YUNQUE AND LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR CONDS IN TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 19-21Z
TJBQ...AND SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY OVER TJSJ. VA EMISSIONS CONTINUE OFF
AND ON FROM MONTSERRAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF TKPK THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND AWAY FROM ALL OTHER SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY AS WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS WILL RESULT ON A
MODERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

I have to mention that we can post here information about what is going on with the Soufriere Volcano at Montserrat because it affects the weather in the NE Caribbean in a indirect way and sometimes directly depending from where the winds are blowing to send the ash plume to any of the islands far from the volcano.

[cycloneye]

From the 1 PM EST discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
81W-85W DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. DRY
W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-72W AS WELL
AS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 66W BEING USHERED IN ON
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES ALONG THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC WATER AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUND
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
OF THE AREA TO 31N76W. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED N
OF 30N W OF 72W BY AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT EAST OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CANADA. FARTHER TO
THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N70W ALONG 27N73W TO
24N77W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 23N63W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 59W-70W IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AXIS IS
LOCATED ALONG 63W N OF 30N AND SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N68W. A CONVERGENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-SE FROM THE
LOW ALONG 32N62W 28N57W TO 27N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY... REMAINING
LARGELY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALONG 47W N OF 22N AND SUPPORTS A 1017 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N50W. THIS LOW IS NEAR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE EAST NEAR 32N19W
AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 27N28W AND THEN AS A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 27N/28N TO NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR
27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SURROUND THE LOW
COVERING THE AREA FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 42W-52W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

$$
HUFFMAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES BY OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...MAY SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...HOWEVER...WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY DIURNAL DRIVEN
IN NATURE. WHILE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY...AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO LARGE SCALE
WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 21/22Z...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AT THE REST OF LOCAL TAF SITES. THEREAFTER...PREVAILING VFR FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH 22/04Z...
FOLLOWED BY PROB30 OF PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ... TISX...
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK FM 22/04Z-22/06Z. ELSEWHERE...VA EMISSIONS
CONTINUE FM TRPG...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...
FAINT ASH AN GAS EMISSIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR WATER
JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TIST AIRDROME BTW TIST AND TUPJ.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 91 DEGREES AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN TODAY. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 21ST...WHICH REACH 90
DEGREES BACK IN 2006.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 212007 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR
DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WINDS WERE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND THE
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WERE IN THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THIS EVENING...WITH GENTLY
INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$

[cycloneye]

Have a good night.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...
MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR.
INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE
PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES./ BCS

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA. ALSO...VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO SIGMET JULIETT 2./ BCS

REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220630 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY ALLOWING FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON AND
NOCTURNAL PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEEK IN STORE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS MID LAT
SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH AND TROPICAL WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH NEXT 7
DAYS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RETURN TO NORMAL TODAY OR
TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO CLIMO DIRECTION AND
SPEED. VERY SIMPLE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. BY NEXT WEEKEND GFS SHOWS A POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE SLOWED TIMING. UPDATED GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE MVFR TO IFR
TEMPO CONDS POSSIBLE 18Z-22Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT APPEARS TO BE
MOVING WNW ON IR IMAGERY WITH TRAJECTORY TOWARD TISX. APPEARS THAT
ASH CLOUD NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO TISX TO WARRANT IT IN THE
FORECAST...BUT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR ROUTES GOING TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BE AWARE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MUCH LONGER PERIOD ENERGY (12-14 SECONDS)
ARRIVES FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
BREAKERS AND COASTAL RUN UP FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SET OF
WEAK NELY SWELLS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE FIRST SIGNIFICANT NWLY SWELLS
OF THE SEASON ARRIVE EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 40 40 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

10/93

[cycloneye]

Hey Gusty,you took the lead today Good morning to all on this sunday before thanksgoving day.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WERE MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
TO INDUCE A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THIS MORNING...WITH GENTLY INCREASING
NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hey Gusty,you took the lead today Good morning to all on this sunday before thanksgoving day.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WERE MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
TO INDUCE A NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THIS MORNING...WITH GENTLY INCREASING
NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

$$

Yeah Luis, that was not easy , tkanks for this comment i appreciate. Have a good day too

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH DAY...AND A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
IS HELPING TO STEER EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH CONTINUED RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT FAIRLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WHILE THERE COULD BE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...THE NEXT MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...IN THE FORM A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY EN ROUTE TO AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 22/22Z. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH
23/04Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PROB30 OF PASSING SHRA IN AND
AROUND TJSJ... TISX... TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK FM 23/04Z-23/11Z. VA
AND GAS EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO EXTEND FM TRPG...BUT LOW LEVEL
STEERING NOW MORE FROM THE EAST DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ASH/GAS EMISSIONS WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL FLYING AREA.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN SOME SPOTS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND PLEASANT WEATHER PREVAILED. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZES...
WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...THEN BECOMING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FEW LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS EVENING. SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING INDICATED A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
DAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH 23/0400Z. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TISX...
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 23/0400Z-23/1100Z. VA AND GAS EMISSIONS
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM TRPG...BUT LOW LEVEL STEERING...NOW MORE
FROM THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...WILL MAINTAIN THE ASH/GAS
EMISSIONS WELL SOUTH OF LOCAL FLYING AREA.