Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[6SpeedTA95]

morning guys

[CrazyC83]

1300Z coming out - MDT shifted well to the east (surprisingly), and threats reduced to the west (bad call IMO).

[RL3AO]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR AND NRN LA INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR OH AND LWR TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM SE TX TO THE LWR MO...MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

..SYNOPSIS

POTENT VORT MAX/JET STREAK NOW ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF W TX UPR
TROUGH WILL MOVE NE INTO ERN KS THIS AFTN AND INTO IA THIS EVENING
AS LARGER SCALE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SE NEB.
THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT E INTO IA EARLY FRIDAY AS 130 KT HI-LEVEL JET
STREAK SWEEPS NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS.

ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO SE NEB THIS
EVENING...AND MOVES TO NEAR DSM EARLY FRIDAY. TWO COLD FRONTS
TRAILING S FROM THE LOW...AND OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL SQLN AHEAD OF
LEAD FRONT...WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCI FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD. SE OF THE LOW...RAIN/STORM OUTFLOW LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
RETARD NE MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. THE
FRONT SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIFT STEADILY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
REACHING NRN OH BY 12Z FRIDAY.

..AR/SE MO INTO LWR MS...LWR OH AND LWR TN VLYS

WRN AR/NE TX PRE-FRONTAL SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL AR AND
NRN LA LATER TODAY. THE MCS SHOULD DECELERATE AND MAY BREAK INTO
BROKEN SEGMENTS/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS BY ABOUT MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM/S
MOTION HAS CARRIED IT BEYOND STRONGEST WLY FLOW/DPVA ALOFT.

AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION AHEAD OF THE SQLN STORMS THIS AFTN...
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN AR/NRN LA AND SE MO.
CAPPING WILL BE STRONG...BUT INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY ALSO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS FARTHER E NEAR THE MS
RVR AND/OR IN NRN/WRN MS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY /850 DEWPOINTS AOA
14C/...EXISTING STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABSENCE OF
STRONG/DEEP LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED
DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO SUPERCELL THREAT LIKELY WILL SPREAD N/NE INTO WRN TN/WRN
KY AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IL/SW IND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY OR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH NE MOTION OF WARM
FRONT.

..LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY

SFC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN DRY SLOT OF OCCLUDING SFC
LOW WILL CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS OVER THE LWR MO VLY THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT. FCST WIND
PROFILES SHOW PRESENCE OF A SLIGHT BACK/VEER PATTERN IN THE VERTICAL
THAT...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY... SHOULD LIMIT
TORNADO THREAT. COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD...HOWEVER...FOSTER PRODUCTION OF HAIL.

FARTHER E....PROSPECTS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG LEAD COLD
FRONT IN NE MO/NW IL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT APPEARS MORE LIMITED...
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS /DRY AND COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR/ AND RAIN IN
UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. IF SFC-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A
LIMITED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD
EXIST.

..SRN KS/NRN OK

A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP FOR A SHORT PERIOD
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COULD FOSTER LOCALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008

[CrazyC83]

Stronger wording than the 0600Z...

[RL3AO]

Still only 10H tornado.

[CrazyC83]

Still only 10H tornado.

Way too conservative.

[6SpeedTA95]

Still only 10H tornado.

Way too conservative.

Maybe, but yesterday didn't materialize.

[RL3AO]

Still only 10H tornado.

Way too conservative.

Maybe, but yesterday didn't materialize.

It didn't?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Starting early...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
809 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 807 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLOW SPRINGS BY 820 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CLEAR SPRINGS...ARROLL...EUNICE AND HARTSHORN ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

[6SpeedTA95]

It didn't?

A few minor touchdowns. The 15% hatched didn't materialize. There was what one or two confirmed in texas, 4 I believe in oklahoma and 3 in arkansas? Unless poop hit the fan after I went to bed, I'd say based on yesterday 10%H is a bit conservative but I dont lbame them.

[CrazyC83]

South of the Arkansas River, the squall line is gone.

[CrazyC83]

Starting early...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
809 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 807 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WILLOW SPRINGS BY 820 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CLEAR SPRINGS...ARROLL...EUNICE AND HARTSHORN ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

That's on the squall line.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the initiation area:

Arkansas
Batesville - Overcast, 68 (63)
El Dorado - Mostly cloudy, 73 (64)
Fayetteville - Light rain, 63 (60)
Fort Smith - Thunderstorm, 62 (61)
Hot Springs - Overcast, 70 (66)
Little Rock - Light rain, 69 (65)
Mena - Rain, 66 (63)
Russellville - Thunderstorm, 69 (66)
Texarkana - Mostly cloudy, 73 (64)

Louisiana
Alexandria - Mostly cloudy, 75 (66)
Monroe - Mostly cloudy, 73 (66)
Shreveport - Mostly cloudy, 75 (65)
Tallulah - Overcast, 72 (65)

Missouri
Joplin - Light rain, 58 (57)
Springfield - Heavy rain, 57 (55)

Texas
Dallas - Mostly cloudy, 62 (59)
Longview - Light rainshower, 66 (61)
Lufkin - Overcast, 73 (68)
Paris - Overcast, 66 (61)

[CrazyC83]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... st&type=ir

Clouds rapidly breaking in Arkansas ahead of the dying squall line. This is going to be an interesting day...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...

VALID 101332Z - 101430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187 CONTINUES.

WW WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY THAT WILL COVER PORTIONS NRN LA AND
SRN/ERN AR. SVR POTENTIAL SPREADING E OF WW 187 ASSOCIATED WITH BKN
BAND OF CONVECTION -- NOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS WW FROM
SWRN AR TO E-CENTRAL TX. AIR MASS FCST TO DESTABILIZE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS PROSPECTIVE WW AREA WITH DIURNAL HEATING WEAKENING
MLCINH...AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 04/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

30879697 32619506 33759455 34799341 34949124 33049168
31349413

[Beam]

This rain has picked up speed and is starting to clear western MO pretty quick. Perhaps there'll be a greater threat north and west of the MDT area than anticipated?

[CrazyC83]

This rain has picked up speed and is starting to clear western MO pretty quick. Perhaps there'll be a greater threat north and west of the MDT area than anticipated?

That is my thinking too...since the dissipating squall line has rushed ahead of the cold front, it leaves the door open for development behind the line if things destabilize.

[CrazyC83]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 185...WW 186...WW
187...WW 188...

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE NERN TX/SWRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT CROSSES WATCH AREA FROM
W TO E.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
858 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

ARC091-101415-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-080410T1415Z/
MILLER AR-
858 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MILLER COUNTY...

AT 858 AM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR FOUKE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GARLAND BY 910 AM CDT...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HERVEY BY 915 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A
TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3351 9373 3346 9372 3343 9374 3336 9369
3329 9370 3315 9393 3329 9403 3346 9391
3352 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 233DEG 41KT 3331 9386

$$

13

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the cloud cover is starting to break up a little ahead of the squall, which also seems to be somewhat decaying though there is still a tornado watch present with it.