EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[KWT]

Wow Chacor Alma is getting that real classic hurricane look now, its got really impressive inflow features as well, dual channel as well from the looks of things, certainly not surprising that it has strengthened so quickly with that sort of structure, decent atmospheric condtions and warm seas...now its just a matter of how strong can it get before landfall later today, I certainly think now that we will see hurricane Alma

[GeneratorPower]

Take a close look at this floater and enable "Trop Fcst Pts." Alma is already right of the forecasted track possibly wobbling NNE, lets see if this is a trend or just a temporary "wobble" GFS and NOGAPs may just end up getting this right after all.

These wobbles will make a huge difference in whether NW Caribbean generation will happen or not.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html

Yee-ha! Wobble wars have begun!

[Derek Ortt]

give it up with the cross over idea.

The steering flow is likely to turn it to the NW within the next 24 hours

[Derek Ortt]

GFS and NOGAPS are developing something else in the Caribbean

[CycloneNL]

[Thunder44]

I've been looking at some newer microwave images on NRL. It looks like it has a closed eyewall now. This one is on it's way to becoming a hurricane, unless it makes landfall in the next few hours.

[CrazyC83]

She's trying to wake up...

[Vortex]

anyone know of any web cams close to the forecasted landfall?

[Scorpion]

Yea no way it makes it across.. I remember Adrian and how everyone said it was a threat to the Caribbean.

[KWT]

It does look like it will make landfall very soon however I suspect it will be upgraded to the first hurricane of 2008 anyway given the structure it has, if it has a closed eyewall then that suggests to me it probably is around 65kts right now.

[RL3AO]

Intermediate is out in an hour.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS and NOGAPS are developing something else in the Caribbean

Actually, the GFS initializes Alma, but too weak, and withing 12 hours, splits it into two lows, with the stronger one moving into Central America, with most of the rain, and a weaker low drifting Westward. At 18 hours half-Alma reaches the Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/gfs_slp000018_m.shtml


But I don't expect an almost hurricane strength storm to split in half as depicted on the GFS...

[KWT]

Also Ed the model plotter showed that the 0z Nogaps actually does form something directly from Alma's remains.

RL3AO, I am curious as to whether the NHC will take the plunge with this and upgrade it to a hurricane or keep it as a strong tropical storm.

[Thunder44]

Also Ed the model plotter showed that the 0z Nogaps actually does form something directly from Alma's remains.

RL3AO, I am curious as to whether the NHC will take the plunge with this and upgrade it to a hurricane or keep it as a strong tropical storm.

I suspect they will only increase the winds to 70mph.

[KWT]

Yeah maybe though with a fully closed eyewall now observable on the microwave imagery they may up it to hurricane status but who knows. They may even leave it for 3hrs then up it to hurricane status in the advisory after that, though by that time it will probably be making landfall.

[cpdaman]

northern side of the center appears to be making landfall around 1pm, and probably by 4 the whole thing will be inland.

nice little formation, funny .........everyone seems to be surprised when a small system develops so fast, but small systems are able to do that so much faster than larger one's...apparently even in may

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is it makeing landfall now because it looks like it is makeing landfall now IMO!!!!!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 291743
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...ALMA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
COSTA RICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...WEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 175 MILES
...280 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALMA WILL REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...12.0 N...86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Its probably about 2hrs away from a landfall, though the northern part of the eye will reach land very soon I suspect.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Its probably about 2hrs away from a landfall, though the northern part of the eye will reach land very soon I suspect.

TYVM FOR THE CLEARIFACATION