ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

Chacor · #321 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:10 am

Any reports of gale-force winds that would cause it to be upgraded right to TS Hanna rather than TD Eight?

#322 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:14 am

Chacor wrote:Any reports of gale-force winds that would cause it to be upgraded right to TS Hanna rather than TD Eight?

Only a buoy within 250 nmi and it showed 17kts.

Quikscat showed a couple 30 to 35kt barbs, but not that close to the center. ATCF was 30kt earlier.

kurtpage · #323 Postby **kurtpage** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:50 am

28/0615 UTC 19.9N 57.7W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

#324 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:03 am

No upgrade?

AL, 95, 2008082806, , BEST, 0, 197N, 577W, 30, 1004, DB,

710
WHXX01 KWBC 280659
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0659 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080828 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 0600 080828 1800 080829 0600 080829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 57.7W 20.9N 59.3W 22.2N 61.1W 23.6N 63.0W
BAMD 19.7N 57.7W 20.4N 58.7W 21.4N 60.1W 22.5N 61.6W
BAMM 19.7N 57.7W 20.5N 59.0W 21.3N 60.6W 22.5N 62.4W
LBAR 19.7N 57.7W 20.2N 58.3W 21.1N 59.6W 22.2N 61.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 0600 080831 0600 080901 0600 080902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 64.5W 26.6N 67.8W 28.2N 69.9W 27.6N 71.4W
BAMD 23.6N 63.1W 25.6N 66.1W 27.1N 67.6W 26.4N 67.4W
BAMM 23.4N 63.9W 25.2N 67.0W 26.4N 68.7W 25.9N 69.6W
LBAR 23.2N 63.0W 24.7N 67.1W 25.8N 70.8W 24.8N 73.9W
SHIP 58KTS 69KTS 74KTS 73KTS
DSHP 58KTS 69KTS 74KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 57.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 57.1W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

RattleMan · #325 Postby **RattleMan** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:12 am

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_al952008_al082008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808280701
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 08, 2008, DB, O, 2008082200, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL082008
AL, 08, 2008082418, , BEST, 0, 173N, 521W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2008082500, , BEST, 0, 175N, 523W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2008082506, , BEST, 0, 177N, 525W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2008082512, , BEST, 0, 179N, 526W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 08, 2008082518, , BEST, 0, 181N, 528W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082600, , BEST, 0, 187N, 535W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082606, , BEST, 0, 189N, 543W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082612, , BEST, 0, 190N, 551W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082618, , BEST, 0, 191N, 560W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082700, , BEST, 0, 192N, 564W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082706, , BEST, 0, 193N, 567W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082712, , BEST, 0, 193N, 569W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082718, , BEST, 0, 194N, 571W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 08, 2008082800, , BEST, 0, 195N, 573W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 08, 2008082806, , BEST, 0, 197N, 577W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

#326 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:14 am

336
WHXX01 KWBC 280704
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0704 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE EIGHT (AL082008) 20080828 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 0600 080828 1800 080829 0600 080829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 57.7W 20.9N 59.3W 22.2N 61.1W 23.6N 63.0W
BAMD 19.7N 57.7W 20.4N 58.7W 21.4N 60.1W 22.5N 61.6W
BAMM 19.7N 57.7W 20.5N 59.0W 21.3N 60.6W 22.5N 62.4W
LBAR 19.7N 57.7W 20.2N 58.3W 21.1N 59.6W 22.2N 61.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 0600 080831 0600 080901 0600 080902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 64.5W 26.6N 67.8W 28.2N 69.9W 27.6N 71.4W
BAMD 23.6N 63.1W 25.6N 66.1W 27.1N 67.6W 26.4N 67.4W
BAMM 23.4N 63.9W 25.2N 67.0W 26.4N 68.7W 25.9N 69.6W
LBAR 23.2N 63.0W 24.7N 67.1W 25.8N 70.8W 24.8N 73.9W
SHIP 58KTS 69KTS 74KTS 73KTS
DSHP 58KTS 69KTS 74KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 57.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 57.1W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

TD Eight.

#327 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:09 am

Right on. Very interesting. 5am advisory initiation appears certain, however we have to wait for the official word from NHC.

#328 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:12 am

this one will certainly bear very close watching as all the globals turn in wsw/sw in 4-5 days and the euro continues to threaten the bahamas and fl.

#329 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:22 am

Nogaps 00z run shifts far left and has landfall in southern/central fl.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #330 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:23 am

GeneratorPower wrote:Right on. Very interesting. 5am advisory initiation appears certain, however we have to wait for the official word from NHC.

Well I would say it is official considering its posted on the navy site as TD8 as well!

bob rulz · #331 Postby **bob rulz** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:23 am

08L on NRL.

Aquawind · #332 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:30 am

Vortex wrote:Nogaps 00z run shifts far left and has landfall in southern/central fl.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

Ouch...... That hurts!

Website · #333 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:52 am

Hello Florida!

bob rulz · #334 Postby **bob rulz** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:54 am

First advisory issued.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280847
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8
KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#335 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:04 am

Brent wrote:Hello Florida!

ridging helped us for gustav and may come to back to haunt us for 8

#336 Postby **hial2** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:19 am

I'll be the first one to say it.....very very similar track to *gulp* Andrew

#337 Postby **beaufort12** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:31 am

i believe this morning will see some very suprised people

bob rulz · #338 Postby **bob rulz** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:33 am

beaufort12 wrote:i believe this morning will see some very suprised people

This thing developed pretty rapidly. As far as I know it wasn't even being mentioned in the media yesterday (well, I don't know about local Florida news).

#339 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:35 am

#340 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:36 am

bob rulz wrote:
beaufort12 wrote:i believe this morning will see some very suprised people

This thing developed pretty rapidly. As far as I know it wasn't even being mentioned in the media yesterday (well, I don't know about local Florida news).

We have been tracking it for at least a week. It took its time due to shear and dry air.

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