ATL: INVEST (97L)

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KWT
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#321 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:38 pm

Yep probably because the models were too quick in terms of development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#322 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:39 pm

latest snap shot with the only nearby observation which really says nothing about if there is a surface circ or not.. lol

but still there it is... :)

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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L) Models

#323 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:48 pm

97L will like what 12z NOGAPS has in terms of shear. :) It has a all clear path of shear in the Caribbean for 97L.

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#324 Postby chris1985 » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:48 pm

Getting closer, guess we wont see development before 55W.
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#325 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:49 pm

chris1985 wrote:Getting closer, guess we wont see development before 55W.

Yeah, so just a little effort...and folks as sonero/singer of salsa Johnny Pacheco says: "Que le den vitamina"! :)
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#326 Postby pojo » Sun Jul 19, 2009 2:55 pm

we'll see what happens tomorrow when the POD comes out....
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#327 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:02 pm

pojo wrote:we'll see what happens tomorrow when the POD comes out....


Are there planes in St Croix now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#328 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:03 pm

Thought this was dead for sure yesterday, now it looks to be getting better organized by the hour. Persistence needed!
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#329 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:03 pm

Yeah small upper high forms, the GFS seems to be prediciting similar conditions and so IF 97L can stay south enough it'll get good conditions there...but its got a lot of poor conditions to get through first from the looks of things.
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Re: Re:

#330 Postby pojo » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:
pojo wrote:we'll see what happens tomorrow when the POD comes out....


Are there planes in St Croix now?


there was.
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#331 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:07 pm

The convection is definitely getting fanned from the TUTT on the northern side. Looks like the upper level winds are getting stronger than they should be for optimum development. Probably be on naked swirl watch tomorrow. Maybe before sunset we will be able to determine whether the apparent storm relative circulation is something real at the surface?
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#332 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:16 pm

This would be amazing if it could develop under such hostile conditions...
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#333 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:24 pm

I'm extremely surprised at how great this looks like today. Thought for sure it was dead last night, and now I think it's really close to being a TD if trends continue. Pretty amazing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#334 Postby poof121 » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:26 pm

Just needs to mix out that dry air...
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#335 Postby lester » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:33 pm

Brent wrote:I'm extremely surprised at how great this looks like today. Thought for sure it was dead last night, and now I think it's really close to being a TD if trends continue. Pretty amazing.


I guess we're all eating crow today :cheesy:
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#336 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:38 pm

From NRL site: 1930 UTC: 12,2 N 52,5W 25 kts 1012 mb
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#337 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:38 pm

lester88 wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm extremely surprised at how great this looks like today. Thought for sure it was dead last night, and now I think it's really close to being a TD if trends continue. Pretty amazing.


I guess we're all eating crow today :cheesy:


***Cough***Wait till Tomorrow***Cough***
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#338 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:38 pm

The mid level to the NW quadrant has flattened out. We'll have to see how it translates to formation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#339 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:41 pm

New TRMM data shows what looks like a LLC developing.

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Re: ATL: INVEST (97L)

#340 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 19, 2009 3:43 pm

latest trmm..

shows some convective banding .. but the SW side is having some difficulty closing off mostly do to the forward speed.. needs to slow down..
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