ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

Diurnal Maximum should give it a chance to maybe make a push towards TD.

[kevin]

Whats a diurnal maxima?

[Yankeegirl]

thats when the storms explode at night..... kind of sorta.... like allison.... she popped up over night...

[Brent]

This reminds me of Humberto, Claudette, Allison, Alicia, Danny, the list goes on...

[kevin]

Is a pressure gradient of just 2 millibars enough for a tropical depression?

[Yankeegirl]

allison and alicia, they did that.... and so did humberto, but didnt affect us.... you go to bed and there is nothing on the radar and when you get up, BOOM-storm sitting off the coast....

[MGC]

Looking at the long range radar out of Slidell, the convection near the center is moving to the north. Still don't think there will be enough time for 95L to be upgraded, but you never know in the tropics.......MGC

[ozonepete]

Is a pressure gradient of just 2 millibars enough for a tropical depression?

Not sure what you mean...

[Stormcenter]

Well I must say this should make for an interesting evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Sanibel]

I can't believe this little pip-squeak of a disturbance is going to develop. What kind of crazy year is this? It could end up being a tiny cyclone.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it is drifting north if not a tad east of due north. Looking at both visible and WV imagery.

[KWT]

As others have said, it probably IS a TD if we are going to be technical, its just whether the NHC pull the trigger with it...they probably just waiting to make sure convection doesn't suddenly totally decay.

[wxman57]

Can they issue TS Warnings on an unclassified system?

No, I don't think they can.

Yes, they can. This was discussed at the National Hurricane Conference and AMS conference on tropical meteorology this past spring. Bill Read did state that there could be a case when TS warnings would be issued for a disturbance that was expected to develop near shore. Whether they'd actually do it remains to be seen.

Convection does appear to be accelerating northward now. Maybe it'll continue to weaken and die out in the next few hours.

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise, as such it should not be used for any purpose

This looks very much like a TD right now. Whether the NHC will upgrade it is anyone's guess. Maybe they figure it will fall apart tomorrow because of dry air, but I think if it keeps this presentation overnight then they will have a serious problem not upgrading it.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm wondering tonight if 95L deepens quickly enough if it will turn back more toward the NE, the NWS Mobile AFD mentions another low south of Apalachicola along the trough and you can see it spinning slowly and appears to be moving northward. I would think if 95L was to deepen it might move more along the trough?

[HURAKAN]

Latest .. losing convection

[KWT]

Yeah the convection is weakening a little bit right now but no doubt it was probably briefly a TD...but maybe the NHC were waiting to see if the convective pattern held...

Still a nice little surprise this one has been...

[wxman57]

Looks like it was a brief flare up as shear let off but convection is now fading and moving away from the LLC. No development tonight, most likely.

[MGC]

Lets hope 95L gets ashore so it don't have a chance to sit out over the water and fester. I'm wondering if 95L might have any impact on the future track or 96L in that it clould weaken the ridge that is expected to develope and shunt 96L off to the WNW?......MGC

[KWT]

Well it'll be interesting to see whether the track of 95L does effect the track of 96L at all down the line?