ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

#321 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:59 am

Cell is removed to the NW from the LLC.

Core is extremely wide.

#322 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:16 am

There is about 10 to 15 knots of upper level winds blowing over the LLC from east to west.

This is due to the fact the anti-cyclone is located to the east of the LLC.

Air over Honduras and Nicaragua is stable which allows air to sink.

So, IMHO a circulation is setup where it starts in the UL troposphere at the anti-cyclone, goes over the LLC, sinks over land, and then circulates into the LLC at low-levels close to the boundary layer.

At that point LL convergence lifts parcels into the convection where it is then ventilated to the NW of the blob.

Development of 98L could improve in the afternoon when air over land heats up from solar heating and destabilizes.

#323 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:19 am

Latest

#324 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:28 am

I ran two HYSPLIT parcel trajectories.

One at 15N 80W, east of the convection.

The other at 15N 87W, west of the convection, over Honduras.

There is ascent into the convection from the east.

However, air is sinking and moving to the south over Honduras.

#325 Postby **SootyTern** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:28 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:Once again, the fear and panic mongers seem to be crying wolf. How many times has that happened this season?

Huh? This is a very civilized discussion of the development of 98L. No fear-mongering that I can tell. Yeah, back in Aug & Sept a few posts got nutty....

Convection with 98L looks nice this morning.

#326 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:44 am

45NWOrlando wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:I would expect there to be a Special TWO in the next few hours raising the probability of formation to 50%60%, and if trends continue, 80%-90% at 8PM with an upgrade at 11AM, although knowing the NHC they might wait for morning visibles.

It wouldn't have been a "special" Tropical Weather Outlook. The next/new, scheduled one was issued no more than 3.7 hours after you posted.

Exactly. Special TWOs can be issued at any time between the normal TWOs. I thought the NHC would have issued one with the increased organization, but they didn't.

#327 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:05 am

06z

AL, 98, 2010101106, , BEST, 0, 142N, 820W, 25, 1006, LO

#328 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:06 am

ASCAT about 1-1/2 hrs ago.

#329 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:14 am

GCANE, that was from yesterday at 14:41 as it says at the bottom.

#330 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:36 am

Cycloneye:

Thanks, sorry I missed the timestamp.

#331 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:36 am

Up to 60%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

#332 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:41 am

1st visible

#333 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:02 am

When does recon fly? I believe they will find a TD when they do.

#334 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:05 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:When does recon fly? I believe they will find a TD when they do.

14z or 10 am edt ... arrive by 2 pm edt

#335 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:06 am

Looking good this morning. It's likely a depression at the moment. Should be Paula later on today or tonight.

Continue to watch this very closely here in south florida.

#336 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:13 am

latest

#337 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:16 am

close-up

#338 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:19 am

gatorcane wrote:Continue to watch this very closely here in south florida.

Same here. I just fear that people won't take this seriously after he-who-shall-not-be-named-because-he-really-shouldn't-have-been.

#339 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:19 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Continue to watch this very closely here in south florida.

Same here. I just fear that people won't take this seriously after he-who-shall-not-be-named-because-he-really-shouldn't-have-been.

That's what I fear. "CDO" continues to expand and improve this morning also.

So much for the dry air killing it off.

#340 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:26 am

Puerto Lempira

8 AM (12) Oct 11 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) NW 16 rain

ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - 8 AM TWO=Up to 60%

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - 8 AM TWO=Up to 60%

Re:

Re: Re:

Who is online