ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tailgater]

easy now to see a developing center.....1KM scan...but its getting close to the Yucatan. Probably knock it down some as it moves across. I put it on the coast about 8pm tonight..

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

At about 180 due east of the coast it would have to REALLY increase it's forward speed.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, this is really organizing fast this afternoon. Think we see a TS overnight or at least a TD. Don't know how fast NHC would pull the trigger on calling it a TS unless a buoy or ship get TS wind readings until Recon gets there.

I just don't see this missing the trough along the north Gulf Coast, I'm still in the NO to Panama City Bch. Camp!

[Rgv20]

Afternoon discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville..

ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE ON THE LOOK OUT IS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH COULD MOVE INTO
STRONGER SHEAR ZONE ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US OR COULD
TAKE A MORE SW TRACK AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BLOCK THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE RGV. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY TO WHERE WILL THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE
BUT THE CHANCES OF REACHING THE CWA AT THIS TIME IS REALLY LOW.
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATED FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UNBLOCKING THE CWA AND DEVELOPING
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY. STAY TUNED TO ANY CHANGES
WITH THE DISTURBANCE AS CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE.

[Sanibel]

Wow, this is really organizing fast this afternoon. Think we see a TS overnight or at least a TD.

You can see it curling-up on RAMSDIS. I'll let you take the risk on final intensity since I have no clue.

[Tireman4]

Tim Heller, our local OCM in Houston, posted this on his Facebook page...

Our PinPoint FutureTrack takes the Caribbean storm into the Gulf, tracking toward New Orleans and/or Florida. That would leave us on the dry side of the circulation.

It strangely looks like he is using the European...

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?f ... =1&theater

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure looks to be wrapping. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[caneman]

Have only checked Sat. a few times today and does seem to really coming together. Any West winds? Sue looks like a TD already.

[hurricanekid416]

I think a llc is forming where is wrapping up

[ROCK]

I think the cloud tops are warming....

[cycloneye]

I think the cloud tops are warming....

D-MIN time.

[Rgv20]

Afternoon discussion from the NWS in Corpus Christi..

FORECAST GETS A BIT MURKIER FROM THERE ON OUT AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE WEATHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM
CLOSED CIRCULATION LANDFALLING SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TO DISORGANIZED
CLUSTERS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. FOR NOW WILL
STICK CLOSER TO OFFICIAL GUIDANCE AND KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING MOISTURE BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR
TUESDAY STILL LOOK REASONABLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS OBVIOUSLY LOW
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

[gatorcane]

Here is data from a buoy located a little to the north and west of where the center may be forming. Pressure is falling and winds are increasing out of the east.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Hurricane Alexis]

This reminds me of Dorian. Has a strong MLC and looks like very nice but it's just a wave. Although I think this one will have more luck than Dorian ever had.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Textbook warm core at 1C.

Relatively wide though.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_TANO.GIF

[GCANE]

Classic TD wind field

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF

[wxwatcher4405]

Is there a chance this makes it as far west as Tx/La border?

[gatorcane]

Here is an image of where NHC has the low. Looks like it is on the western side of the big blob, so that would mean there is some shear impacting this system:

[Stormlover2012]

I don't think so, but I think we will see something this yr!! We shall see

[hurricanekid416]

Here is an image of where NHC has the low. Looks like it is on the western side of the big blob, so that would mean there is some shear impacting this system:

I doubt that's where the llc is if there was a llc which it may not have its where the storm is wrapping up not saying nhc is wrong because they are professionals

[fendie]

NWS WFO in Houston/Galveston, TX is still not paying much mind to models regarding eventual track until a closed circulation forms... DISCO from 3:33 PM CST below:

NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. SAT
PIX SHOWING THIS SYSTEM LOOKING BETTER. NOT GOING TO VENTURE TO
GUESS ON ITS EVENTUAL EVOLUTION/TRACK AT THIS POINT BUT SYNOPTIC
UPPER FLOW WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE & ERN TROF. WE`LL
HAVE TO SEE IF THE TROF PULLS IT ON A MORE NWD TRACK OR IF IT
ISN`T FELT AS MUCH AND TAKES A MORE WNW TRACK. WE COULD DESCRIBE
WHAT ALL THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING - BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES UNTIL A WELL DEFINED CENTER
DEVELOPS. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD OUR BRIEFING TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS
TODAY OFF OUR TWITTER AND FACEBOOK PAGES IF INTERESTED. BUT FOR
NOW THE PLAN IS TO KEEP THE FCST PRETTY MUCH AS-IS TO KEEP FLIP
FLOPPING TO A MINIMUM. FWIW...ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE LESS CONSISTENCY
ISSUES COMPARED TO GFS AND WOULD BE MODEL OF CHOICE ATTM IF FORCED
TO PICK. 47

The briefing for area emergency managers doesn't tell you anything that hasn't already been discussed here, but if you would like to download the PDF it can be found here:

http://ow.ly/d/1rdA