ATL: INGRID - Models

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM is running....lets see what it does..and more importantly how it handles the ridge and coming short wave...

[Tireman4]

I am growing to love the NAVGEM. It rocks.

[Rgv20]

6zFIM 9 has 93L nearing lanfall North of Tampico around La Pesca by Monday morning, very close to the 6zGFS.



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[Rgv20]

12zCMC has 93L making landfall in Tampico by Late Sunday Night early Monday morning.



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[Alyono]

Canadian model is just as much BS as is the GFS

It too develops a phantom EPAC system

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013091212/gem_mslpa_watl.html

The CMC model really breaks down the ridge over Texas. Pressures definitely seem to be sinking across the Gulf throughout the month.

[HurriGuy]

There is definitely going to be moisture streaming in from the EPAC system though.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Member Means has 93L very close to the Tampico area by Monday Morning....A few of the ensemble members bring it as far north as La Pesca/San Fernando Mx area.



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[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM finally updated...sheesh....keeps 93L in the BOC and at 168hr brings it up the coast as the ridge over Texas dies...

the run stops at 180hr with a stong TS just offshore...moral of the run is: the longer it hangs out down there the better chances are it comes more north...



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[ROCK]

here is the 500MB at 180hr...probably heads up the TX coast more if this run went out further...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png

[Wx_Warrior]

here are today's 0z and 12z model comparisons.



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[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12zECMWF trended a bit north compare to the 0z run....Looks like landfall Sunday Evening/night between Tampico and Brownsville (just an estimate as I'm looking at the 24hr increments) The Euro is also faster than the GFS Ensemble Means with 93L nearing the coastline by a good 12 hours or so.

[Wx_Warrior]

Sounds about right.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro is a lot further north, still south of Brownsville, but a significant jump. Euro is known to have a left bias, so the next day or so should get interesting.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO takes it near La Pesca MX. IMO, don't think we are going to see drastic changes on landfall, but what do I know?

[Wx_Warrior]

FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles



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[HouTXmetro]

FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles

:-o Well there is a glimmer of hope with the GFS ensemble Euro that some of Texas may receive beneficial rain.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro vorticity





for reference, 0Z vorticity



from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltropatl.html

[PTrackerLA]

FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles

:-o Well there is a glimmer of hope with the GFS ensemble Euro that some of Texas may receive beneficial rain.

And a glimmer of hope of a major hurricane going over my house . LOL what the heck is that about?

[Dean4Storms]

FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles

:-o Well there is a glimmer of hope with the GFS ensemble Euro that some of Texas may receive beneficial rain.

And a glimmer of hope of a major hurricane going over my house . LOL what the heck is that about?

I wouldn't sweat that one........yet! LOL