Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[Nimbus]

The low level inflow circulation around the expelled LLC has relaxed.
Looks like it may be trying to hook in behind the sunset burst of convection over the water.
Question is whether the front has dropped far enough south to relax the shear from the southwest at the 850 mb level?

[Aric Dunn]

its still quite possible its gets pulled a little more to the south towards the convection or the a separate circ develops within the convection over night.

[ronjon]

Looks like the LLC that decoupled is now retrograding west or W-SW back toward the gulf. Most of the guidance want to move or reform low pressure further west in the panhandle thru time. Not sure we're done watching this disturbance yet.

[MGC]

Surface low is slowly tracking westward along the Ga-Fl border. As long at it remains inland the chances of development are nill. But, need to keep a close eye on it in case it drifts back over the Gulf......MGC

[ronjon]

Interesting that lowest surface pressures now at shell point and keaton beach on applachee bay (1009 and 1010 mb).

[mobilebay]

Surface low is slowly tracking westward along the Ga-Fl border. As long at it remains inland the chances of development are nill. But, need to keep a close eye on it in case it drifts back over the Gulf......MGC

Exactly you are 100% correct. The naked swirl has began to track west to wsw during the last couple of hours. Finally feeling the effects of the high pressure system to the north.

[OntarioEggplant]

Does anyone know what the Euro is saying precipitation wise, specifically near the NW FL coast? I know yesterday it said 49" near Panama City

[Aric Dunn]

Actually the circ over land has really begun to fall apart and elongate. might need to start watching near the convection offshore again.

[stormhunter7]

as expected a vortice has spun of stuff/850mb in gulf, look nw of new port richey.

[Aric Dunn]

as expected a vortice has spun of stuff/850mb in gulf, look nw of new port richey.

The old mid level circ is sitting right in that area of convection. anything at the surface will be competing with the low over land though the one ( if it develops) would likely take over since it wont be dealing with land.

[stormhunter7]

as expected a vortice has spun of stuff/850mb in gulf, look nw of new port richey.

The old mid level circ is sitting right in that area of convection. anything at the surface will be competing with the low over land though the one ( if it develops) would likely take over since it wont be dealing with land.

Vortice shows up on TBW. its small.

[mobilebay]

as expected a vortice has spun of stuff/850mb in gulf, look nw of new port richey.

The old mid level circ is sitting right in that area of convection. anything at the surface will be competing with the low over land though the one ( if it develops) would likely take over since it wont be dealing with land.

Vortice shows up on TBW. its small.

What is TBW? You wont know till you ask

[PTrackerLA]

Does anyone know what the Euro is saying precipitation wise, specifically near the NW FL coast? I know yesterday it said 49" near Panama City

12z Euro still shows over 40" of rain falling offshore with widespread 10"-20" totals along the coast from the Big Bend area westward into SE LA over the next 7 days.

[stormhunter7]

The old mid level circ is sitting right in that area of convection. anything at the surface will be competing with the low over land though the one ( if it develops) would likely take over since it wont be dealing with land.

Vortice shows up on TBW. its small.

What is TBW? You wont know till you ask

[Aric Dunn]

That is likely just another vort not an actual LLC. but its close enough to the radar to be low enough. will likely see many more of these. leaves open the option of a Circ developing offshore again.

[OntarioEggplant]

Does anyone know what the Euro is saying precipitation wise, specifically near the NW FL coast? I know yesterday it said 49" near Panama City

12z Euro still shows over 40" of rain falling offshore with widespread 10"-20" totals along the coast from the Big Bend area westward into SE LA over the next 7 days.

Thanks. Have a house near Pensacola and am worried about it

[TheStormExpert]

Still at 0/0% in the 8pm TWO.

A weak area of low pressure located inland over the northern Florida
peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms, primarily
over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida panhandle. This system is
expected to move slowly northward during the next couple of days,
taking the low pressure system farther inland. Although tropical
cyclone formation is not expected, heavy rainfall that could
result in flooding is likely over portions of the northern Florida
peninsula and the Florida panhandle during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low... near 0 percent

[TheStormExpert]

Another larger radar view of this area.

[Aric Dunn]

the circ over land appears to quickly be weakening and elongating.. ill be watching the convection over the water.

[Dean4Storms]

Conditions aloft are not so favorable over the NE Gulf, shear is between 15-20kts, the 850mb Vorticity is now over northern FL with the 500mb Vorticity down west of Tampa. We have an UL High over Central Alabama and an ULL or TUTT over the Northern Bahamas drifting Northward. Unless a Low near the surface attempted to form further South near the 500mb Vort west of Tampa all the shear will keep this in check IMO.
I think we'll have this sheared mess working westward as the week unfolds with the convection over the Gulf sending 850mb Vortices northward which induces heavy rain. To the east of those Vorts you might have some winds getting transported down to the surface in heavy convection to gale force.