ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a further north version of Wilma. Euro would have TS and hurricane gusts up and down the east coast.

Will have to keep an eye on the speed and intensity of the incoming trough as it could help maintain Michael's strength well after landfall through baroclinic processes.

[KUEFC]

Looks like a further north version of Wilma. Euro would have TS and hurricane gusts up and down the east coast.

Will have to keep an eye on the speed and intensity of the incoming trough as it could help maintain Michael's strength well after landfall through baroclinic processes.

East coast?

[Cypresso]

Yikes, 12z Euro 963mb at 72 hours...

Close to Sandy's 940. Down to 950@96 hrs

Unlike Sandy this would be quite a small storm; the winds would probably be closer to 105-115 knots.

I am thinking more of up to 130 knots at landfall. Correction, km/h, not knots.

[boca]

SE Florida is the safest place in the state with that track their wouldn’t be hurricane force gusts in this area.

[LarryWx]

One thing to note is that over the years there has been some tendency for TCs to correct further east with time unlike what happened with Irma. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Euro/UKMET Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).

[chaser1]

Looks like a further north version of Wilma. Euro would have TS and hurricane gusts up and down the east coast.

Will have to keep an eye on the speed and intensity of the incoming trough as it could help maintain Michael's strength well after landfall through baroclinic processes.

East coast?

Yep, quite reasonably. Based on a more eastward shifted track and given a moderate 10-15 knot forward speed, the storm would traverse Southern Georgia, E. South Carolina, and Easternmost North Carolina exiting back over water close to the N.C./Virginia coastline. When you factor in a heavily "east-tilted" storm envelope, that'll bring a good deal of heavy rains and strong gusts to Augusta G.A. to Fayetteville N.C. to Norfolk V.A., and all points east of there. I doubt that hurricane force gusts would reach the Carolina's but definitely T.S. force gusts and any additional risk of tornadic cells in the Northeast quadrant as the storm nears the South/North Carolina coastline. Looks like nightmare road conditions could occur on a stretch of I-95 as well.

[KUEFC]

Looks like a further north version of Wilma. Euro would have TS and hurricane gusts up and down the east coast.

Will have to keep an eye on the speed and intensity of the incoming trough as it could help maintain Michael's strength well after landfall through baroclinic processes.

East coast?

Yep, quite reasonably. Based on a more eastward shifted track and given a moderate 10-15 knot forward speed, the storm would traverse Southern Georgia, E. South Carolina, and Easternmost North Carolina exiting back over water close to the N.C./Virginia coastline. When you factor in a heavily "east-tilted" storm envelope, that'll bring a good deal of heavy rains and strong gusts to Augusta G.A. to Fayetteville N.C. to Norfolk V.A., and all points east of there. I doubt that hurricane force gusts would reach the Carolina's but definitely T.S. force gusts and any additional risk of tornadic cells in the Northeast quadrant as the storm nears the South/North Carolina coastline. Looks like nightmare road conditions could occur on a stretch of I-95 as well.

Thanks for the reply, still trying to learn about it all!!

[chaser1]

SE Florida is the safest place in the state with that track their wouldn’t be hurricane force gusts in this area.

True enough. Other then a really big and unexpected reformation to the east, i'd be surprised if S. Florida (Upper Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward northward) even received gusts to tropical storm strength. I doubt that points northward and up to Orlando here in the middle of the state, and east of here would receive tropical storm gusts. Probably some occasional fast moving squalls and 1-3" of rain not out of the question. I suppose that the Fla. west coast from Sarasota north could see some significant gusts, rain, and high surf though.

[Bucman]

Good afternoon- with the models shifting east some, does that change possible effects for the Tampa Bay Area?

[Bucman]

Good afternoon- with the models shifting east some, does that change possible effects for the Tampa Bay Area?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

dont like this at all..more and more east with lots of time.


What if it doesnt interact witg Yucatan??? What's that do for intensity.

Man im currently laid up with a horibille flu or something worse..I dont have energy to board up ...can barely walk without shivering..I dont want to fight for supplies

[DestinHurricane]

Euro and UKMET were both too far east with Nate last year

[chaser1]

One thing to note is that over the years there has been some tendency for TCs to correct further east with time unlike what happened with Irma. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Euro/UKMET Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).

So true! If I lived anywhere between the coast and even a little north of Hwy. 98 in Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, Crawfordville, St. Marks, Newport, all the way toward Perry.... i'd be in full-on "Eye's Wide Open" mode for the strong possibility of hurricane force conditions occurring between late Wednesday and early Friday. Even if Michael makes landfall between Panama City and Appalach, a fairly east tilted storm will certainly inflict it's strongest onshore conditions a fair distance east of center landfall.

[ronjon]

Good afternoon- with the models shifting east some, does that change possible effects for the Tampa Bay Area?

Definitely looks like gale force wind gusts, heavy rain, and storm surge now which could get considerably worse if any future shifts east.

[ColdMiser123]

12z EPS members are stronger, slower, and most are near the Apalachicola region.

[Noles2016]

One thing to note is that over the years there has been some tendency for TCs to correct further east with time unlike what happened with Irma. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Euro/UKMET Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).

So true! If I lived anywhere between the coast and even a little north of Hwy. 98 in Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, Crawfordville, St. Marks, Newport, all the way toward Perry.... i'd be in full-on "Eye's Wide Open" mode for the strong possibility of hurricane force conditions occurring between late Wednesday and early Friday. Even if Michael makes landfall between Panama City and Appalach, a fairly east tilted storm will certainly inflict it's strongest onshore conditions a fair distance east of center landfall.

Crawfordville here. Parents live at Shell Point. We're ready!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems to me the slower Michael goes the more east it'll be forced to go, as that'll give more time for the trough that's forcing Sergio to Baja to nudge Michael more eastward.

Again, unprofessional opinion, but that's why I think the models are trending overall more east.

[chaser1]

dont like this at all..more and more east with lots of time.


What if it doesnt interact witg Yucatan??? What's that do for intensity.

Man im currently laid up with a horibille flu or something worse..I dont have energy to board up ...can barely walk without shivering..I dont want to fight for supplies

Skirting Yucatan will have little/no affect on Michael's ultimate intensity. Bottom line, it really will largely depend on whether a fairly tight core can/will develop at all while still drifting northward in the Northwestern Caribbean. Biggest issue to strengthening might well be whether an improved surface inflow on it's West quad's can occur. Right now, there still may be two vortex's competing for inflow. If and when the seemingly detached westernmost vort pretty much opens up from lack of co-located convection and inflow becomes primarily focused toward one dominant LLC (to the north or to the east), it's that point where we'll have "lift-off" and more significant deepening will occur. Whether that is already happening now or not for another 24 hours, will largely dictate how much reasonable time remains for continued strengthening. One thing seems like it is becoming more likely, is that this storm will be somewhat more like Charlie in terms of peaking toward landfall rather then weakening on approach.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[chaser1]

One thing to note is that over the years there has been some tendency for TCs to correct further east with time unlike what happened with Irma. Also, the Euro and especially UKMET are more often too far west vs too far east . So, not only does that mean we should respect this possible Euro/UKMET Big Bend landfall, we should even consider the chance that later runs will be even further SE (not a prediction...just a thought).

So true! If I lived anywhere between the coast and even a little north of Hwy. 98 in Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, Crawfordville, St. Marks, Newport, all the way toward Perry.... i'd be in full-on "Eye's Wide Open" mode for the strong possibility of hurricane force conditions occurring between late Wednesday and early Friday. Even if Michael makes landfall between Panama City and Appalach, a fairly east tilted storm will certainly inflict it's strongest onshore conditions a fair distance east of center landfall.

Crawfordville here. Parents live at Shell Point. We're ready!

.

Oh yeah, especially Shell Point! I told close friends off Rehwinkel Trail in south Crawfordville to expect a couple of guests (Michael and myself lol).