2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Really quiet season so far.

Vertical Instability has been running below average across the 3 main regions.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1152211142502014978

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1150021668275924992




 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1150024411161989120

[dexterlabio]

Still giving this season a chance but only up until the second week of August,when the wet phase of the MJO will reach the WPAC. I know that the actual intense period of a WPAC season is Sept-Nov, but there should already be a hint by next month if the basin is capable of producing major typhoons.

The back-loaded WPAC years in recent memory are 2013 and 2016, but in late July and August we already got to see some typhoons forming. I know we had Wutip for this year but I'm inclined to think of it as an outlier or a "non-indicator," perhaps just a result of an El Nino that has begun to fade since then.

The last time the MJO passed by this area, it got blasted and the only ones produced in the WPAC are scrambled eggs.

[euro6208]

It may not mean much but CFS has August as the most active month...Total Accumulated Precipitation Anomaly and MSLP/Normalized Anomaly...decreasing afterwards but still favorable. Maybe the WPAC's chance?

[TorSkk]

It was certainly more active a year ago at this time...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1153285285603618816

[Tailspin]

Humm yeah the GFS ens are firing up late into that first week in aug.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1153740898569601025

[euro6208]

EURO has another weak TS making landfall across Southern China. GFS none.

[euro6208]

GFS has been showing an explosion of activity beginning early August for several runs now. Last 2 runs is even more activity. Could be a bust again but the MJO and KW is expected to pass through at this time.

12Z



18Z

[JoshwaDone]

GFS
> Monsoon trough setting up @ Aug. 1
> Habagat strengthening @ Aug. 6

[Hayabusa]

I would go another bust, this is the same thing the GFS did in the long range before getting into Danas. I would love to be wrong.

[Emmett_Brown]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1153740898569601025

These types of anomalies are fascinating to me... in this case, unusually low levels of TC activity in the earth's usually busiest ocean basins. WPAC and EPAC both below normal activity wise. What could be causing it? Just think of the cool research papers that will be written about this.

[wxman57]

Looks like JTWC changed their website a bit. Notice anything odd?

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

[Hayabusa]

If it's the satellite graphic they do this sometimes and then the next thing switches back to their previous style satellite graphic, that is if that's really the one that looked odd.

[wxman57]

If it's the satellite graphic they do this sometimes and then the next thing switches back to their previous style satellite graphic, that is if that's really the one that looked odd.

The Indian Ocean sat pic is of the eastern North Atlantic and South Atlantic. "No Suspect Areas" is located in the South Atlantic.

[Hayabusa]

If it's the satellite graphic they do this sometimes and then the next thing switches back to their previous style satellite graphic, that is if that's really the one that looked odd.

The Indian Ocean sat pic is of the eastern North Atlantic and South Atlantic. "No Suspect Areas" is located in the South Atlantic.

If only JTWC also issues warning and discussion of Atlantic storms. I would love to read one from them.