ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Figured we'd see an uptick in convection after reaching 55W. Entering that region of warmer SSTs now.

[AtlanticWind]

I mentioned yesterday that I have seen a lot of storms convection blow up as they
reached 55 w and higher SST's

We will see if this is the kick start for Dorian

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1165676424138825733

[AtlanticWind]

I think it looks the best it has , as the models show less development than ever.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I mentioned yesterday that I have seen a lot of storms convection blow up as they
reached 55 w and higher SST's

We will see if this is the kick start for Dorian

Also convergence will increase as the Easterlies slow on approach to the islands

[cycloneye]

Tropical Tidbits has the meso floater up.Great the images.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Monsoonjr99]

Even if the models are right and this convective burst doesn't amount to much, I think there's still a chance Dorian could become a major hurricane, probably after regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico a la Harvey if so. Hopefully this does not become a destructive monster.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Tropical Tidbits has the meso floater up.Great the images.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I had been looking at that and you can see the strong convection on the southern end rotating around the center. I think this is probably 50kts by now

[Aric Dunn]

deep convection is still firing around the center. just -70 instead of - 85 to 90. CDO is developing..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Even if the models are right and this convective burst doesn't amount to much, I think there's still a chance Dorian could become a major hurricane, probably after regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico a la Harvey if so. Hopefully this does not become a destructive monster.

If this goes over Hispaniola I think its pretty much going to be gave over for Dorian depending on how strong it is on arrival.

[shiny-pebble]

Some -80s starting to pop up again

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[ScottNAtlanta]

deep convection is still firing around the center. just -70 instead of - 85 to 90. CDO is developing..

https://i.ibb.co/55YQCKR/7.gif

You can see the rotation in the red blob!

[Aric Dunn]

Tropical Tidbits has the meso floater up.Great the images.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

addition to my last post.. now -80C + overshooting stops firing again.. its really starting to deepen.. A SIGN it was not a pulsed convection event..

[Ian2401]

recon is on its way now as i understand it, would be perfect timing for them to arrive with this convective burst.

[Aric Dunn]

this type of deep sustained convection will help center the upper high over this for the next 24 hours or so..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/theastronick/status/1165672260381925376

[ColdMiser123]

Danny in 2015 could be a decent analog for this. Small systems can both spin up and spin down quickly, and recon in several hours should give us a better assessment of the intensity, and the environment out ahead.

I think it's pretty likely that Dorian gets shredded apart in the Caribbean, since small systems are significantly more vulnerable to a high shear environment.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, though the actual center fix recon wont be for awhile.

this is the synoptic flight.

not sure if they will do a pass or not. but after that long flight the airforce planes will need to refuel.

by the time they do get there... at this rate it will likely be approaching a hurricane..

[Sciencerocks]

Nice blow up of convection these past couple hours. Probably going to find a system a little stronger once recon gets too it.

[shiny-pebble]

Is it just me or are there -80C cloud tops firing around an eye wall? Almost looks like there is a partial eye wall. But it will probably be gone by the time i post this

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