ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Could the large size of 92L and the nearby dry air potentially cause it to fragment into two or more areas of vorticity, with one taking over to eventually become a TC?

Maybe, the southern portion of 92L with the convection is moving west while the actual center has a northern component.

Honestly with the conditions now and the way the year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we had a major hurricane or no formation at all

[chaser1]

I think we are reaching a point with this particular disturbance that I was most concerned about prior to the start of the season. Particularly strong easterly trades resulting in potent tropical disturbances to remain low latitude until reaching a point further west in the basin. Then, given more conducive conditions development begins to occur resulting in a greater number of storms to develop or track into the Caribbean thus posing an increased landfall threat to the Greater Antilles, Yucatan, and CONUS. 92L has plenty of time to develop and still pose a primary threat to the Leewards and Puerto Rico but I'm worried that the greater threat may be to Cuba and GOM.

Maybe we will have to see. It it gets to the E Carib and is still this disorganized I think it gets shredded or suffers a fate similar to Gonzalo.

Your overall perception of conditions in the E. Caribbean are correct especially as it applies to small tropical cyclones tracking west at lower latitudes. One particular cause is an interruption of surface convergence due to proximity to South America. Upper level winds seem to commonly plague tropical cyclones in this region as well. At the same time however, there have been notable tropical storms and hurricanes which actually blossomed and bomb-out in the Eastern Caribbean. The one thing I will say is that 92L has such a large envelope that lower level convergence should be the least of it's problems. I really think that the biggest impediment to development has been the inability for a vertical column to develop in large part due to lack of organized convection. SAL might have contributed but mid level heights are fairly stout. I think the combination of fast westerly motion and added mid level capping have mostly contributed to lack of deep convection. If we do begin to see a healthier burst of convection that can sustain for a good part of a day then this might be a clue that the broad behemoth of a system might be slowing down just enough for a tighter vertical core to form and establish itself. If that happens, it's game over and we'll have something to really worry about. For what it's worth, the 500mb flow in the E. Caribbean is more relaxed. Ironically this may end up being this system's sweet spot.

[TheStormExpert]

It is failing to consolidate. Ingesting a lot of dry Saharan air. Moving too quickly. Less model support for development and strengthening today. NHC will begin gradually lowering development chances, which I agree with. Perhaps I will be able to take some of the 5 comp days I've accrued over the past 2 weeks.

Yep there wording in the 8am TWO is a indication that they’ll likely lower chances of development starting with the 2pm TWO assuming the 12z suite doesn’t abruptly change its tune.

[sma10]

I just heard that Isaias just said the EXACT same thing about "sma10!"

I would believe you ... if there was actually a real person named Isiaias

[wxman57]

I just heard that Isaias just said the EXACT same thing about "sma10!"

I would believe you ... if there was actually a real person named Isiaias

From Wikipedia, it appears that Isaias is a popular name for Brazil soccer players.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaias_(given_name)

[Aric Dunn]

Given the current trends I highly doubt they lower the numbers.

[ouragans]

NHC said "development in a day or two" , so if development occurs on wednesday, we're still in. This kind of huge system take time to consolidate, and SAL is not really an issue. It's creating its own moisture environment

[TheStormExpert]

I just heard that Isaias just said the EXACT same thing about "sma10!"

I would believe you ... if there was actually a real person named Isiaias

From Wikipedia, it appears that Isaias is a popular name for Brazil soccer players.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaias_(given_name)

Fortunately if trends continue and it briefly develops into Isaias we won’t have to say the name for long.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1287734542657359873

[AnnularCane]

I just heard that Isaias just said the EXACT same thing about "sma10!"

I would believe you ... if there was actually a real person named Isiaias

From Wikipedia, it appears that Isaias is a popular name for Brazil soccer players.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaias_(given_name)

We should toss a soccer ball to 92L and see what he does with it.

The pronunciation can be learned, but the problem is that saying the name doesn't seem to come naturally to someone who isn't a native Spanish (or Portuguese) speaker. (I hope that wasn't too awkwardly worded.)

[RT23]

Ok for the ignoramus in me, should we be caution about that area of spin in the lower SW quad?

[NDG]

[St0rmTh0r]

Boy oh boy better hope this never gets going and stays away from land the storm surge with this would be UNBELIEVABLE!!!

[St0rmTh0r]

Ok for the ignoramus in me, should we be caution about that area of spin in the lower SW quad?

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

[northjaxpro]

Ok for the ignoramus in me, should we be caution about that area of spin in the lower SW quad?

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok for the ignoramus in me, should we be caution about that area of spin in the lower SW quad?

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

[RT23]

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Much Lower than what NHC is calling the centre of 92 L

[RT23]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

[St0rmTh0r]

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

The center looks like the broad circulation to the north of this or maybe I'm wrong?

[St0rmTh0r]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

They may not be sure how to word it

[RT23]

I saw that too definitely looks like it has some spin. The larger circulation should win out but it is possible it could break free and keep west

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.