ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Impressive...

[Aric Dunn]

Now we are cooking..

[ouragans]

Now we are cooking..

It should be classified as a TD by 5 PM, maybe straight to TS depending on the ASCAT

[Aric Dunn]

Now we are cooking..

It should be classified as a TD by 5 PM, maybe straight to TS depending on the ASCAT

Yeah, it could easily be a TD by 11. now that it has shed the excess fat lol

[SFLcane]

Now we are cooking..

Still scratching my head with Euro and it’s ensembles snowing nothing. It’s clearly on its way this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Now we are cooking..

Still scratching my head with Euro and it’s ensembles snowing nothing. It’s clearly on its way this morning.

Likely overdoing the SAL/Dry air like it has been all year.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking like a strong TUTT to the NW, which will retrograde to an UL trough, will shred part of this and then the islands will take another chunk out of it.

Some models last night were showing the TUTT moving out of the way as 98l approaches the islands and moved north of them

[HuracanMaster]

Track guidance shifting west, greater antilles, northern leewards in play.

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[NDG]

Mind blowing that the Euro and its ensembles dropped all development with 98L, but when I see 98L this morning getting better organized than what it was 24 hrs ago I have no option but to dismiss the Euro.
Clearly the western vorticity is taking over and the vorticity that was to its east is weakening as it started rotating around the larger gyre of the monsoon trough.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF is running right now and it’s already 90kt cane 78hrs out while HMON is a 57kt TS

[Blown Away]

Looking healthier today... Still looks like multiple circulations... First look, 11.9N/44.5W has nice rotation...

[eastcoastFL]

Mind blowing that the Euro and its ensembles dropped all development with 98L, but when I see 98L this morning getting better organized than what it was 24 hrs ago I have no option but to dismiss the Euro.
Clearly the western vorticity is taking over and the vorticity that was to its east is weakening as it started rotating around the larger gyre of the monsoon trough.

https://i.imgur.com/vQhAdnY.gif

Is it possible the euro initialized on the dissipating low to the east?

[NDG]

Looking like a strong TUTT to the NW, which will retrograde to an UL trough, will shred part of this and then the islands will take another chunk out of it.

Some models last night were showing the TUTT moving out of the way as 98l approaches the islands and moved north of them

That is correct, all models even the Euro show that TUTT getting out of the way, retrograding northward.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like TUTT is going to shred this apart, not sure this will survive much longer. Still too many competing vortices.

[Blown Away]

Track guidance shifting west, greater antilles, northern leewards in play.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/aaeb988d46630cc9ee79f27e69c8f859.jpg

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Yep for sure, hopefully the 06Z HWRF is not correct with strong hurricane into this area...

[eastcoastFL]

Track guidance shifting west, greater antilles, northern leewards in play.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/aaeb988d46630cc9ee79f27e69c8f859.jpg

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Yep for sure, hopefully the 06Z HWRF is not correct with strong hurricane into this area...

I hope not. It’s at 84 hrs with a 965mb cane about to swallow PR

[Hurricaneman]

Also it’s heading just about due west, the models are already wrong as the models have a motion of 290/300* when it’s moving 270, wouldn’t be surprised if it goes south of Hispaniola

[HuracanMaster]

Track guidance shifting west, greater antilles, northern leewards in play.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/aaeb988d46630cc9ee79f27e69c8f859.jpg

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Yep for sure, hopefully the 06Z HWRF is not correct with strong hurricane into this area...

Not so happy thoughts of maria, 6 months without power fashing before my eyes...

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[Do_For_Love]

Looks more consolidated and "tighter" than yesterday where it was more elongated imho. We'll see what today brings, these waves have been tough to call recently it seems. Still seems like 98L will develop at some point, just a matter of when...

[eastcoastFL]

Also it’s heading just about due west, the models are already wrong as the models have a motion of 290/300* when it’s moving 270, wouldn’t be surprised if it goes south of Hispaniola

HWRF is going further south across PR while HMON still heads north of it