Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[tomatkins]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

It is more about how the other area NHC is watching in the SW Atlantic erodes the Bermuda High as can be seen here:

https://i.postimg.cc/nVKY6XGJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh132-210.gif

I think its pretty clear that thats gonna be the defining feature as to whether this stalls like the GFS-P has or goes quickly out to sea. The operational GFS has had this feature further west and stronger than the GFS-P for a while now.

[SFLcane]

Always a bright star for the peninsula.

We should know more next week.

[boca]

It also depends on how fast the Bermuda high gets eroded to how much of a NNE turn this takes and our luck continues.This storm could form further west and than Florida would be under the gun.

[pgoss11]

12 GFS gives Eastern New England a good whack

[tomatkins]

12 GFS gives Eastern New England a good whack

Might get that Maine landfall this year after all.

[SconnieCane]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

It is more about how the other area NHC is watching in the SW Atlantic erodes the Bermuda High as can be seen here:

https://i.postimg.cc/nVKY6XGJ/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh132-210.gif

You see a little bit of the ridge pushing back in at the end there. This thing could threaten points further north up the East Coast. Nowhere near calling for S**** 2.0, though.

Edit: Sniped to the same point. Be ironic if this one did what Teddy didn't.

[aspen]

The 12z CMC still has that giant double-lobed gyre instead of the smaller gyre that the GFS has.

[chris_fit]

12 GEFS mean still looks to be W of the OP

[TheStormExpert]

12 GEFS mean still looks to be W of the OP

https://i.imgur.com/l06ipzA.png

Looks significantly east of 06z to me.

[underthwx]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

Good point...aren't some of the forecasts for the peninsula backing off on a frontal passage? . . or how far south it will make it?

[boca]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

Good point...aren't some of the forecasts for the peninsula backing off on a frontal passage? . . or how far south it will make it?

The NAO is supposed to go back up to neutral in a week and positive after that.

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure how much I buy that quick ejection to the NE, trough would need to bring fall temperatures to Florida for that kind of swoop.

Good point...aren't some of the forecasts for the peninsula backing off on a frontal passage? . . or how far south it will make it?

The NAO is supposed to go back up to neutral in a week and positive after that.

Right now the NAO is currently negative, and if I’m not mistaken the effects of a -NAO will remain for several days after the NAO goes positive?

This is why the GFS more so than not is insisting on a storm that misses Florida to the east. I know that could change but right now it seems very reasonable to me.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

[gatorcane]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/hwkER43.png

Quite a shift east but still long-range. Climo would suggest an ejection NE over Cuba and the Bahamas especially the longer it waits to make its move north in the SW Caribbean and the deeper into October we go. There are of course some notable exceptions (Wilma, Sandy, etc).

[underthwx]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Looks like the system won't be moving anywhere too quickly...this seems to be shaping up to be difficult to forecast...I've read each and every post made on this thread...and its fascinating to me, for a system that hasn't formed yet...to read all of the members well thought out scenarios, and possible evolutions of this system....very impressive and informing

[aspen]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/hwkER43.png

That’s very ominous for Cuba and the Bahamas, though.

[LarryWx]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/hwkER43.png

Not ominous but not a complete picnic either as I count at least 4 S/SW FL landfalls.
Also, I see a nontrivial minority that go pretty far west and hang out in or near C America or go into the SW Gulf.

[chaser1]

It also depends on how fast the Bermuda high gets eroded to how much of a NNE turn this takes and our luck continues.This storm could form further west and than Florida would be under the gun.

Correct...... OR "another fly in the hand-sanitizer" would be if genesis were sped up or (more likely) delayed by a day or two. The latter possibly resulting in that other sub-tropical system possibly pulling out and increased mid level heights to build back in.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing ominous about the 12z GEFS for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/hwkER43.png

Quite a shift east but still long-range. Climo would suggest an ejection NE over Cuba and the Bahamas especially the longer it waits to make its move north in the SW Caribbean and the deeper into October we go. There are of course some notable exceptions (Wilma, Sandy, etc).

Yes, but the GFS, GEFS, and even EPS are now inline with a storm or hurricane quickly ejecting NE across Cuba and The Bahamas with no threat to Florida.