ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
AL, 12, 2021090218, , BEST, 0, 135N, 351W, 70, 985, HU
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Sciencerocks
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Still going directly west according to the Best Track.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:Still going directly west according to the Best Track.
Not suppose to turn to the WNW until Saturday night the latest.
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Still going directly west according to the Best Track.
Not suppose to turn to the WNW until Saturday night the latest.
Going by the track forecast it seems like it should start moving WNW within the next 12-24 hours. Not moving WNW until Saturday night will be very late.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Still going directly west according to the Best Track.
Not suppose to turn to the WNW until Saturday night the latest.
Going by the track forecast it seems like it should start moving WNW within the next 12-24 hours. Not moving WNW until Saturday night will be very late.
Considering that's the most western outlier that's why it would be the latest or else everything changes.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
I’m starting to see what looks to be the outline of a large eye. Multiple hot towers are firing in the SE eyewall and will likely be wrapped around overnight.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Microwave shows that is almost ready to go RI.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like it underwent an EWRC. There’s this hook inside the larger eye that is probably the remains of the smaller eyewall from yesterday.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Meteophile
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
I won't make any precise prediction about the core's size. It looks like it's still building. I doubt a (very) rapid intensification is starting at the moment, but remember it can be very fast once the core is finished.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Ah yes, the typical debate of whether a storm is gonna RI or not whenever it shows signs of organization
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Jeez! Very explosive convection near the Core
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
I hope recon will be able to investigate Larry during its peak intensity when it’s closest to the Leeward Islands.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Larry has incredible outflow. Reminds me of Lorenzo very much.
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Sciencerocks
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
No RI yet.
A. 12L (LARRY)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 13.7N
D. 36.4W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
DT OF 4.5. SYSTEM HAS A DISTINCT BANDING AND CDO SIGNATURE. HOWEVER,
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING INTO THE SYSTEM ON THE W AND SW SIDE
OF THE LLCC. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...PATEL
B. 02/2330Z
C. 13.7N
D. 36.4W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
DT OF 4.5. SYSTEM HAS A DISTINCT BANDING AND CDO SIGNATURE. HOWEVER,
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING INTO THE SYSTEM ON THE W AND SW SIDE
OF THE LLCC. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...PATEL
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion
Larry is going to be big. even if there are no landfalls, it will be very dangerous to beachgoers, similar to Lorenzo.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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