Texas Summer 2024

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1807969958284218479

[txtwister78]

[Brent]

I still see quite a few EPS members headed for Texas/Louisiana. Most of these largely miss the Yucatan and go north of Jamaica on Wednesday. Those are two key things to watch for direct Texas impact. If both those happen it's a lot more likely and stronger

[Texas Snowman]

Almost a little Hurricane Allen vibe looking at all of this. Long, long way to go…

 https://x.com/nwsbrownsville/status/1807975267966538022

[Texas Snowman]

Or Emily…

 https://x.com/ferragamowx/status/1807971612395774079

[Cpv17]

[Portastorm]

Model trends concerning involving Beryl but what kind of storm will it be by the time it approaches Texas? Supposed to encounter a lot of shear. Will cross a landmass (Yucatán). It’s smaller sized storm so unlike a large system that can survive those things, Beryl may have it tough down the road.

I think we all would root for a disorganized tropical system that just gives us some nice summer rain.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/025202_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Brownsville is now in the cone

[snownado]

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

[Ntxw]

Bit of a "cool down" with highs late week and next week. In July cutting down the 100s for a period can negate something like 2022/2023.

[Brent]

GFS ensembles are all over TX LA. They are a lot weaker still too

[Ntxw]

GFS ensembles are all over TX LA. They are a lot weaker still too

Trough is coming this weekend. Moisture is likely to get pulled up whatever is left! We may get a rainy day in the 70s/80s...July.

[gpsnowman]

GFS ensembles are all over TX LA. They are a lot weaker still too

Trough is coming this weekend. Moisture is likely to get pulled up whatever is left! We may get a rainy day in the 70s/80s...July.

Makes me wonder when the last time we received rain in July for the DFW area. I'm thinking three years ago.

[snownado]

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

Today is also the 4th 100*F high for the year.

[Texas Snowman]

Again, the plot seems to be thickening…

 https://x.com/blakemathews08/status/1808177981799473298

[txtwister78]

18z model guidance. As others have mentioned, just bring us some rain.

[Ntxw]

Heat watches, advisories on the west coast up to PAC NW. We inversely correlate with them in summer so naturally, unusual trof on euro.

[LadyBug72]

Learning question here…I’ve seen the posts from various Mets that say “weaker storm more west, stronger more north” what is the threshold of strength to determine this? Thank you!

[Brent]

Looks like we have storms timed for 4th of July fireworks high in the 80s on Friday. Hope that can spread down there

But this front basically decides Beryl's fate too

[Brent]

Well Beryl is defying the forecasts of major weakening tonight so far. The stronger it stays the bigger the threat for Texas