504
WTNT44 KNHC 160831
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SEVERAL
SSSMI...AMSU...AND TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
DEGRADATION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE FEATURES AND EYE
STRUCTURE. A DISTINCT EASTWARD TILT OF THE EYE WAS NOTED IN 0447Z
AND 0625Z TRMM OVERPASSES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER IMAGE SUGGESTED
THAT LESS TILTING OF THE EYE WAS OCCURRING AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
PASSES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. GIVEN THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF
IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 36.7N 63.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.9N 62.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 37.8N 60.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 39.8N 56.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/0600Z 44.6N 50.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/0600Z 53.6N 37.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/0600Z 59.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
Extratropical Irene Advisories
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
This morning, Irene appears to be undergoing some changes. The convection has exploded near the center and there are signs an eye will pop out within the next couple of hours. It has done the "Fist" (this has been Drezee's term for the way the convection swings around the center in the form of a fist). If that eye pops out, rapid intensification could very well ensue. This latest burst of the hurricane could it bring it to a Category 2. The only inhibitor right now, is some fast moving westerlies that are impinging on the NW side, but if the storm moves just slightly faster toward the ENE, those winds shouldn't be detrimental.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT44 KNHC 161429
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A
CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEM
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF
IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
ICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE
LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MUCH HIGHER SHEAR...GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL
STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A
CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEM
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF
IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
ICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE
LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MUCH HIGHER SHEAR...GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL
STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Team Ragnarok wrote:AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...
Irene must've done her homework.
They changed it...LOL...I didn't notice that until they said they changed it.
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
...CORRECTED TO REPLACE WORD EXTRACURRICULAR WITH EXTRATROPICAL...
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050816 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050816 1800 050817 0600 050817 1800 050818 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.5N 62.0W 37.0N 60.1W 38.4N 56.9W 41.5N 51.7W
BAMM 36.5N 62.0W 37.1N 60.6W 38.3N 58.0W 40.7N 53.8W
A98E 36.5N 62.0W 36.8N 59.8W 38.1N 56.5W 38.1N 53.0W
LBAR 36.5N 62.0W 36.7N 60.1W 37.7N 58.2W 39.6N 55.8W
SHIP 85KTS 85KTS 82KTS 75KTS
DSHP 85KTS 85KTS 82KTS 75KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050818 1800 050819 1800 050820 1800 050821 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 46.1N 45.2W 56.6N 28.3W 64.4N 15.8W 70.0N 12.1W
BAMM 44.3N 47.1W 52.6N 28.8W 57.9N 12.1W 62.9N 1.2W
A98E 39.5N 51.1W 40.0N 49.6W 41.9N 41.3W 43.7N 27.4W
LBAR 42.5N 52.3W 54.0N 35.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 68KTS 59KTS 50KTS 34KTS
DSHP 68KTS 59KTS 50KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.5N LONCUR = 62.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 36.6N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 36.5N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 70NM
Cat 2 at 5 PM.
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DoctorHurricane2003
-
Coredesat
000
WTNT34 KNHC 162027
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 830
MILES...1335 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.5 N... 61.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
WTNT34 KNHC 162027
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005
...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...THREAT TO SHIPPING...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 830
MILES...1335 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.5 N... 61.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No obvious mistakes in this one.
WTNT44 KNHC 162127
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED AND ITS EMBEDDED DISTANCE WITHIN THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS WAS LARGE ENOUGH TO YIELD A T NUMBER OF 5.0 AT
18Z...CORRESPONDING TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SOMEWHAT AND THE EYE BECAME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS. IRENE'S CONTINUED EASTWARD
TRACK HAS KEPT THE HURRICANE MOSTLY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG BELT
OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N LATITUDE. IT
IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH STRONGER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE LOOKS SUSPECT...
SINCE IT KEEPS IRENE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS...BY
WHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS WITH A SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING THAN SHIPS...BUT MAINTAINS A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OUT TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSOREBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC CYCLONE.
IRENE HAS CONTINUED ITS UNEXPECTEDLY PROLONGED EASTWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SOON BE
APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...AND INDUCE A
LEFTWARD TURN IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
CONTINUED EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION AT THAT FORECAST TIME. BY THEN...HOWEVER...IRENE'S
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY NO LONGER HAVE RETAINED ITS IDENTITY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.5N 61.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 37.2N 60.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 42.0N 52.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1800Z 47.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED
WTNT44 KNHC 162127
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
THE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED AND ITS EMBEDDED DISTANCE WITHIN THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS WAS LARGE ENOUGH TO YIELD A T NUMBER OF 5.0 AT
18Z...CORRESPONDING TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SOMEWHAT AND THE EYE BECAME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS. IRENE'S CONTINUED EASTWARD
TRACK HAS KEPT THE HURRICANE MOSTLY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG BELT
OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N LATITUDE. IT
IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH STRONGER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE LOOKS SUSPECT...
SINCE IT KEEPS IRENE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS...BY
WHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS WITH A SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING THAN SHIPS...BUT MAINTAINS A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OUT TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSOREBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC CYCLONE.
IRENE HAS CONTINUED ITS UNEXPECTEDLY PROLONGED EASTWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SOON BE
APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...AND INDUCE A
LEFTWARD TURN IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE
CONTINUED EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION AT THAT FORECAST TIME. BY THEN...HOWEVER...IRENE'S
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY NO LONGER HAVE RETAINED ITS IDENTITY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.5N 61.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 37.2N 60.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 42.0N 52.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/1800Z 47.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/1800Z 56.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED
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cycloneye
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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
COME DOWN TO 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY SHELTERED FROM THE
STRONG BELT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N
LATITUDE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH
STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS 48 HOUR FORECAST
OF A 68 KT HURRICANE OVER 15C WATER IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A
BAROCLINIC KICK FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PROVINCE OF QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF IRENE VIGOROUS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/8. IRENE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE'S
LONGITUDE...THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND IRENE
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY...AND CORRECTLY...
TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 36.6N 60.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 37.1N 58.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 39.0N 55.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 43.3N 49.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
COME DOWN TO 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY SHELTERED FROM THE
STRONG BELT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N
LATITUDE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH
STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS 48 HOUR FORECAST
OF A 68 KT HURRICANE OVER 15C WATER IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A
BAROCLINIC KICK FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PROVINCE OF QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF IRENE VIGOROUS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/8. IRENE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE'S
LONGITUDE...THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND IRENE
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY...AND CORRECTLY...
TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 36.6N 60.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 37.1N 58.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 39.0N 55.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 43.3N 49.3W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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P.K.
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- Location: Watford, England
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WTNT44 KNHC 170832
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE LAST COUPLE OF SSMI AND TRMM OVERPASSES CLEARLY INDICATE THAT
IRENE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS ERODED THE EYE FEATURE AND HAS TILTED IT
EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY AT LEAST 30 NMI. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO COME DOWN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/7...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER
THE PAST 9 HOURS HAS BEEN 090/06. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
COASTS IS INDUCING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LAGGING BEHIND IN WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL LOW.
HOWEVER...AS BOTH THE SHORTAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW APPROACH
IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N
LATITUDE WHERE SSTS DROP OFF SHARPLY INTO THE 14-16C RANGE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THEREAFTER...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD HOOK UP WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS OF
THE NOW TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...
IRENE WILL STILL BE OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR
THE CENTER AND KEEP THE SYSTEM GOING AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ONCE
IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A QUICK DEMISE
TO THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 36.6N 60.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 41.0N 52.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 46.7N 46.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0600Z 54.7N 39.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE LAST COUPLE OF SSMI AND TRMM OVERPASSES CLEARLY INDICATE THAT
IRENE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS ERODED THE EYE FEATURE AND HAS TILTED IT
EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY AT LEAST 30 NMI. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO COME DOWN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/7...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER
THE PAST 9 HOURS HAS BEEN 090/06. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
COASTS IS INDUCING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LAGGING BEHIND IN WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL LOW.
HOWEVER...AS BOTH THE SHORTAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW APPROACH
IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N
LATITUDE WHERE SSTS DROP OFF SHARPLY INTO THE 14-16C RANGE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THEREAFTER...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD HOOK UP WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS OF
THE NOW TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...
IRENE WILL STILL BE OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR
THE CENTER AND KEEP THE SYSTEM GOING AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ONCE
IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A QUICK DEMISE
TO THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 36.6N 60.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 37.7N 57.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 41.0N 52.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 46.7N 46.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/0600Z 54.7N 39.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Irene becomes the latest tropical system to appear on our charts. http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack0.gif
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050817 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1200 050818 0000 050818 1200 050819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.8N 59.2W 38.4N 55.8W 41.6N 50.6W 46.3N 44.2W
BAMM 36.8N 59.2W 38.4N 56.3W 41.0N 51.6W 44.3N 45.1W
A98E 36.8N 59.2W 37.6N 56.8W 39.9N 51.8W 41.1N 47.3W
LBAR 36.8N 59.2W 37.9N 56.5W 40.2N 53.3W 44.0N 49.0W
SHIP 65KTS 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS
DSHP 65KTS 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1200 050820 1200 050821 1200 050822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 52.0N 36.7W 62.4N 24.0W 68.6N 23.6W 71.1N 25.5W
BAMM 48.3N 37.6W 55.8N 22.1W 60.7N 13.1W 65.6N 9.8W
A98E 42.0N 44.5W 37.6N 38.8W 35.5N 33.7W 36.3N 34.7W
LBAR 50.4N 43.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 45KTS 37KTS 26KTS
DSHP 51KTS 45KTS 37KTS 26KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.8N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 36.5N LONM12 = 61.3W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 36.6N LONM24 = 63.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 50NM
Minimal Hurricane at 11 AM Advisorie 75 mph.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1200 050818 0000 050818 1200 050819 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.8N 59.2W 38.4N 55.8W 41.6N 50.6W 46.3N 44.2W
BAMM 36.8N 59.2W 38.4N 56.3W 41.0N 51.6W 44.3N 45.1W
A98E 36.8N 59.2W 37.6N 56.8W 39.9N 51.8W 41.1N 47.3W
LBAR 36.8N 59.2W 37.9N 56.5W 40.2N 53.3W 44.0N 49.0W
SHIP 65KTS 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS
DSHP 65KTS 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1200 050820 1200 050821 1200 050822 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 52.0N 36.7W 62.4N 24.0W 68.6N 23.6W 71.1N 25.5W
BAMM 48.3N 37.6W 55.8N 22.1W 60.7N 13.1W 65.6N 9.8W
A98E 42.0N 44.5W 37.6N 38.8W 35.5N 33.7W 36.3N 34.7W
LBAR 50.4N 43.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 45KTS 37KTS 26KTS
DSHP 51KTS 45KTS 37KTS 26KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.8N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 36.5N LONM12 = 61.3W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 36.6N LONM24 = 63.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 50NM
Minimal Hurricane at 11 AM Advisorie 75 mph.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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917
WTNT44 KNHC 171440
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE
AND IS NOW EXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR. AN AVERAGE OF THE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING
DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KNOT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0935 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT PASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 070/10...AND
INDICATES SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE PREVIOUS AVERAGE 6 HOUR MOTION
OF 080/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS AND IS
SWEEPING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. THIS SAME FEATURE HAS ALSO
INTRODUCED THE STRONG WESTERLY MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY
LOWER SSTS WITHIN 24 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. SINCE THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST TRACK THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 36 HOURS. THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. BEYOND THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD
HOOK UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER
18-24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12
HOURS. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 37.1N 58.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 38.8N 55.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 43.0N 50.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 50.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/1200Z 59.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
WTNT44 KNHC 171440
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE
AND IS NOW EXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR. AN AVERAGE OF THE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING
DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KNOT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0935 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT PASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 070/10...AND
INDICATES SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE PREVIOUS AVERAGE 6 HOUR MOTION
OF 080/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS AND IS
SWEEPING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. THIS SAME FEATURE HAS ALSO
INTRODUCED THE STRONG WESTERLY MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY
LOWER SSTS WITHIN 24 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. SINCE THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST TRACK THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 36 HOURS. THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. BEYOND THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD
HOOK UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER
18-24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12
HOURS. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 37.1N 58.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 38.8N 55.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 43.0N 50.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 50.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/1200Z 59.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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