TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

You can see Irene's exposed LLC pretty well here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene35.gif

[wxwatcher91]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFDL IS AGAIN DISSIPATING IRENE IN LESS THAN 48 HR.

---from the 5am NHC discussion on Irene and I know that that is gonna be old in less than an hour but just to note that the GFDL shows Irene not too bad after 48hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=048hr

and by 120hrs shows Irene pretty organized and closing in on hurricane strength

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=120hr

[dwg71]

Jb said it is an east coast storm... that will give some here some fodder.

[storms in NC]

[wxman57]

Jb said it is an east coast storm... that will give some here some fodder.

Yeah, I just watched his video. He has a very strong east coast bias in all of his forecasts - EVERYTHING is always going to hit the east coast. However, I do agree that it's possible that this system could continue WNW and affect the east coast, but chances are low that it'll survive that long.

By the way, I calculate movement 297.5 deg at 16 kts the past 4 hours.

[jabber]

She does not look so great now. A low level swirl devoid of convection. Do you think they downgrade at 11:00?

[deltadog03]

yeah, i also watched JB discussion...interesting indeed...he does have an east coast bias...he did say that the 6z run of the gfs showed it not recurving....

[Hyperstorm]

The NHC track will likely shift significantly further west during the next update. The reason being that the models have once again shifted west. It appears that they are seeing the system as weak and they're keeping it that way, thus will not be influenced as much by the weaknesses.

Irene has taken a beating during the past 48-72 hours and I highly doubt it will survive the persistently hostile environment for much longer. Even if conditions became favorable for re-generation, it has weakened so much, that it wouldn't do much at all. This is unless a new LLC re-generates.

[cycloneye]

I changed title of thread to say TD Irene as it was downgraded at 11 AM advisorie.See Advisorie thread.

[Ivanhater]

ok i dont understand, how can the nhc just shift the track to the west some? i thought it had to options, either go into the weakness or get blocked by the ridge?

[clfenwi]

ok i dont understand, how can the nhc just shift the track to the west some? i thought it had to options, either go into the weakness or get blocked by the ridge?

Because the ridge isn't one big piece yet... it is in two. 06Z GFS surface and 500 millibar analyses:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

11am track now it is tracking farther to the west. Is this thing really going to hit a "weakness" in the ridge?

[Ivanhater]

ya, but i thought irene had to hit the weakness at a certain time before it closes up behind harvey, i just got watching jb video and he thinks its going to "miss" the weakness then the ridge builds in, and watching the nhc discussions in the past they said irene will head into the weakness left by harvey but now the track has been shifted way left so im wondering if it makes it that far west the ridge will be building...in any case things have gotten more complicated

[Scorpion]

I wonder why there is so much shear in front of Irene? And when will it let up?

[wxman57]

ya, but i thought irene had to hit the weakness at a certain time before it closes up behind harvey, i just got watching jb video and he thinks its going to "miss" the weakness then the ridge builds in, and watching the nhc discussions in the past they said irene will head into the weakness left by harvey but now the track has been shifted way left so im wondering if it makes it that far west the ridge will be building...in any case things have gotten more complicated

This is what is called a "hedge" forecast by the NHC. I have doubts Irene will even retain its circulation for another 24 hours. If it strengthens, though, it should turn northward. If it remains weak, it will continue WNW, moving left of the current NHC track. US east coast is not out of the woods yet, but Irene has to survive first.

As you can see below, there's a lot of divergence in the models in the long range:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Ivanhater]

ya, but i thought irene had to hit the weakness at a certain time before it closes up behind harvey, i just got watching jb video and he thinks its going to "miss" the weakness then the ridge builds in, and watching the nhc discussions in the past they said irene will head into the weakness left by harvey but now the track has been shifted way left so im wondering if it makes it that far west the ridge will be building...in any case things have gotten more complicated

This is what is called a "hedge" forecast by the NHC. I have doubts Irene will even retain its circulation for another 24 hours. If it strengthens, though, it should turn northward. If it remains weak, it will continue WNW, moving left of the current NHC track. US east coast is not out of the woods yet, but Irene has to survive first.

As you can see below, there's a lot of divergence in the models in the long range:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

thanks wxman, you are always willing to help and explain things, thanks for the help

[clfenwi]

Good thinking wxman57.

[wxman57]

Also -- movement for the past 4 hours now 290 degrees at 17.25 kts. It should reach the NHC's 00Z position by around 21Z or so..

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of new McIdas images:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene36.gif

And zoomed in a bit more:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene37.gif

Really, really zoomed in:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene38.gif

[wxman57]

Ok, you had to ask what if I really, really, really, really zoomed in on TD Irene, huh? I think I've passed the point of diminishing returns...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene39.gif

It's a slow weather day...