Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

Scott_inVA · #321 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The GFDL did a fair job with Katrina when it went over florida. Yes Katrina went more north then made the turn more southwestard, Instead of heading through the keys. But what other model came close?

Katrina landfall #1 poorly handled by virtually all modeling as well as TPC/NHC. Derek is quite correct...GFDL hocked a loogie early with TS Katrina.

Limited runs with Invest 99L but the GFDL @ 12 hours is off by ~ 100 miles.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #322 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:17 pm

Looks like it has redeveloped its LLC it is now centered at 14.8/54.5 moving west-northwestward. A buoy to its northwest is reporting northeastly winds with a buoy to its east or northeast reporting southeast. Looking at this satellite shows a very well defined LLC developing with some convection forming over the center. Would not be suprized if it was very near a depression. If you went to disprove me post better data but I'm pretty sure.

Here is a clear satellite pic of it...Nice popcorn convection forming over it...But you can see that the Northwestern side might have a little shear.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

cheezyWXguy · #323 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:29 pm

it has very little convection...but if ur idea is true, then if the diurnal maximum tonite should help it aquire TD status

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #324 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:35 pm

Alberto had very little convection....

Weatherfreak000 · #325 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:36 pm

Yeah what three "diurnal makeovers" have passed and "SURPRISINGLY" everytime I wake up the invest looks more pathetic then it did the day before.

#326 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:39 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:This is beginning to be reminiscent of last year, not in the amount or intensity of activity, but with conditions farther out in the Atlantic being less favorable for development and closer to home being more favorable, that waves that somehow survive the treacherous conditions of the tropical Atlantic develop once they get in the Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico.

Am I making any sense here?

Yes you are and I don't like what you are saying!!!!(That is not a dig at you either!) I just don't like the thought, especially because it appears to be right at the moment. We are just at the beginning of the CV season though so we will see if this holds.

LOL I was actually referring to this specific situation, with this particular wave. There is a wave coming off Africa that looks "pretty good" and from what I've read, some of the forecast models are keying on it. So we'll see.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #327 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:04 am

14.8/54.8 looks to be about where the LLC is...The two buoys are showing a even sharper change then they where a hour ago. In the LLC looks to becoming better defined. But to note is there is a northwestly surge moinv down on it right now....In you can also see that this shear is shearing the northwest side. But the system is slowlly becoming better.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #328 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:07 am

Also the Gfs/Gfdl forecasts this system turning westward after 12 hours...

clfenwi · #329 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:09 am

The TOO WEAK indignity finally comes to an end for 99L:

31/0545 UTC 14.6N 55.1W T1.0/1.0 99L

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #330 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:11 am

Yeah slowly strengthing...

Thunder44 · #331 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:13 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:14.8/54.8 looks to be about where the LLC is...The two buoys are showing a even sharper change then they where a hour ago. In the LLC looks to becoming better defined. But to note is there is a northwestly surge moinv down on it right now....In you can also see that this shear is shearing the northwest side. But the system is slowlly becoming better.

Those two buoys indicate more of a sharp wave axis than a LLC.

clfenwi · #332 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:14 am

0605Z TWD comments:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 12N55W 6N56W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS
WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 15N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
6N53W 9N52W 11N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N52W
12N54W 11N57W 11N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW IF NECESSARY.

Thunder44 · #333 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:15 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Yeah slowly strengthing...

That's not how it looks like to me. Lastest infrared satellite image shows some of the convecting decreasing.

Thunder44 · #334 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:21 am

325
WHXX01 KWBC 310641
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060731 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 0600 060731 1800 060801 0600 060801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 54.7W 14.5N 56.7W 14.9N 58.6W 15.2N 60.6W
BAMM 14.2N 54.7W 15.1N 56.8W 15.8N 58.9W 16.8N 60.9W
A98E 14.2N 54.7W 15.4N 56.7W 16.4N 58.7W 17.2N 61.0W
LBAR 14.2N 54.7W 15.1N 56.7W 16.1N 59.0W 17.1N 61.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 0600 060803 0600 060804 0600 060805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 62.5W 15.4N 66.1W 15.5N 69.3W 15.8N 72.6W
BAMM 17.4N 62.7W 18.3N 66.0W 18.8N 69.3W 19.4N 73.2W
A98E 17.9N 63.4W 19.7N 68.2W 21.2N 72.9W 22.9N 77.7W
LBAR 17.7N 63.4W 19.0N 67.6W 20.0N 70.9W 21.1N 74.4W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

ts_kakolina · #335 Postby **ts_kakolina** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:32 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

#336 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:03 am

9Z QuikSCAT, just a wave:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99as.png

kenl01 · #337 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:18 am

This ones pretty much over. The world wide tropical weather discussion link is already agreeing that it's not even worth mentioning as an invest anymore........

"99L Invest and the tropical wave over the central Caribbean almost deserve no mention tonight. 99L has become highly elongated from southwest to northeast. It has run into a wall of very stable, dry air that will limit convection and hinder surface circulation formation altogether. Upper level northwest shear doesn't make conditions any better. Meanwhile, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean is being sheared to death. Typically, no wave ever gets this much attention when upper level winds are that extreme."

#338 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:21 am

wxman57 wrote:9Z QuikSCAT, just a wave:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99as.png

Ground truth
Buoy 41100 is S of whatever could be a LLC and it just had the NE to SE win shift...this is indeed a wave...don't let the visibles fool you...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

caneman · #339 Postby **caneman** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:43 am

drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:9Z QuikSCAT, just a wave:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99as.png

Ground truth
Buoy 41100 is S of whatever could be a LLC and it just had the NE to SE win shift...this is indeed a wave...don't let the visibles fool you...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 12N56W 6N56W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N55W

From the 8:00 discussion

Thunder44 · #340 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:48 am

drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:9Z QuikSCAT, just a wave:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99as.png

Ground truth
Buoy 41100 is S of whatever could be a LLC and it just had the NE to SE win shift...this is indeed a wave...don't let the visibles fool you...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

I see only ENE winds at that buoy as of 11:00UTC.

You must be talking about this buoy to the SE:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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