Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1745 UTC 12.1N 23.1W T2.0/2.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

Now, they corrected it!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1800 060913 0600 060913 1800 060914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 23.2W 12.5N 25.9W 13.3N 28.9W 14.1N 31.9W
BAMM 12.0N 23.2W 12.5N 26.1W 13.2N 29.7W 13.8N 33.5W
A98E 12.0N 23.2W 12.1N 26.1W 12.4N 29.2W 12.7N 32.2W
LBAR 12.0N 23.2W 12.0N 26.3W 12.3N 29.8W 12.7N 33.5W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS 64KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1800 060915 1800 060916 1800 060917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 34.9W 19.3N 39.4W 23.3N 42.1W 26.1N 46.1W
BAMM 14.4N 37.3W 16.1N 43.0W 18.4N 45.3W 21.3N 46.3W
A98E 13.4N 35.1W 15.1N 39.7W 17.5N 43.2W 21.5N 45.3W
LBAR 13.2N 37.7W 14.8N 44.3W 18.6N 45.8W 21.7N 47.0W
SHIP 75KTS 96KTS 109KTS 112KTS
DSHP 75KTS 96KTS 109KTS 112KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 23.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 20.5W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 17.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[MiamiensisWx]

Ship with callsign OVZV2, just SW of Cape Verde, reported 36 kt winds at 18Z. Wind from the North, pressure 1008.7 hPa. Ships position: 14.0N 25.5W.

OVZV2 12183 99140 70255 41497 83636 10291 20256 40087 56018 75022
887// 22215 00294 20403 334// 40403 80266=

Based on the satellite structure and LLC rotation organization, along with the convective banding structure and this report, may we already have Helene on our hands as a marginal tropical storm (low-end)?

[gatorcane]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

[Thunder44]

Ship with callsign OVZV2, just SW of Cape Verde, reported 36 kt winds at 18Z. Wind from the North, pressure 1008.7 hPa. Ships position: 14.0N 25.5W.

OVZV2 12183 99140 70255 41497 83636 10291 20256 40087 56018 75022
887// 22215 00294 20403 334// 40403 80266=

Here's how it appears on NDBC site:

SHIP 18 14.0 -25.5 360 35.9 - 4.9 4.0 29.79

Of course it would probably have to go through QC first.

[Thunder44]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

I saw the 12z CMC did not curve it until after 50W. I think the 12z NOGAPS too.

EDIT: Just looking at them again. It looks like they too recurve it just before 50W and 20N.

[gatorcane]

All of these models curve it way before then:

BAMD 15.3N 34.9W 19.3N 39.4W 23.3N 42.1W 26.1N 46.1W
BAMM 14.4N 37.3W 16.1N 43.0W 18.4N 45.3W 21.3N 46.3W
A98E 13.4N 35.1W 15.1N 39.7W 17.5N 43.2W 21.5N 45.3W
LBAR 13.2N 37.7W 14.8N 44.3W 18.6N 45.8W 21.7N 47.0W

[Brent]

WOW... 112 kt. Looks like we might get a major hurricane afterall.

[Zardoz]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

[cycloneye]

Here in the caribbean islands we see this recurvature forecast as a big deal as we dont want a major cane moving thru the islands.Let it stay in open waters so we can track it to see the beauty and structure of Helene.

[Zardoz]

Here in the caribbean islands we see this recurvature forecast as a big deal as we dont want a major cane moving thru the islands.Let it stay in open waters so we can track it to see the beauty and structure of Helene.

You bet. Better to admire it from afar than have it in your living room.

[skysummit]

let the recurve begin - models shifting right it looks like and showing the curve happening between 40W and 45W.

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/9210/storm08hz2.jpg

That map isn't updated. It shows the 12z models. The 18z show more of the recurver.

[cycloneye]

18z Models.Graphic updated.

[CrazyC83]

Ready for a monster? This has the making of the first major hurricane of 2006. It somewhat reminds me of the early part of another H storm from years back (that would be Hugo).

[Zardoz]

That map isn't updated. It shows the 12z models. The 18z show more of the recurver.

D'oh! Sorry...

[HURAKAN]

I guess we will have Helene tonight then!!!

[CrazyC83]

I guess we will have Helene tonight then!!!

If not by 5:00 pm. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to Helene at this advisory.

[HURAKAN]

First time this season we have 3 systems at the same time in the Atlantic.

[Zardoz]

I guess we will have Helene tonight then!!!

If not by 5:00 pm. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to Helene at this advisory.

Looks to be a safe bet:



Am I imagining things, or is the system following it even more impressive than TD8 was at that point in its progression?

[Bgator]

So everyone thinks its going to recurve, dont u think early models should be taken not with to high confidence....What do pro mets think?