Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Yep. Rain's a coming for my home turf in Lafourche Parish, but I'm downtown today. Looks like we may get a couple of inches here in downtown New Orleans.

TPS

I ate at a Burger King in Galliano, or maybe it was Golden Meadow. Near a traffic light, by a bridge.


The word at the office, when ever we had to go to Grande Isle or Fourchon was to obey the traffic laws very, very carefully there.

[tigergirl]

Going fishing????
Yeah be careful....especially this weekend.

[Steve]

hahahaha yeah you rite. Golden Meadow is the speed trap of the world. Don't do over 25mph. It's a great place to catch redfish, but it's also a place they'll catch you. I met the former Chief of Police at a marina on Catfish Lake (westide of Highway 1) who started that whole deal. He was a very nice guy, but I'm thinking all that pilfered ticket money probably made him rich.

As for the rain, they've got some marine warnings out in the Gulf near St. Mary/Iberia Parishes and another one south of Cameron. Looks like some very intense rainfall down there. This system has been peaking between 11-2 central, so there's a good shot at some local 8"+ and widespread 2-5" from the SC LA Coast to SE Texas.

Steve

[cajungal]

Yes, it is turning really black here in Terrebonne Parish as I speak. Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is going on this weekend and it looks like a wet one. But, the party will go on.

[tailgater]

Latest TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Sounds like it's not moving to fast and after looking a visible loop, I think we are stuck with this low a while unless that front coming south can kick it out. Thoughts?

[Steve]

>>Sounds like it's not moving to fast and after looking a visible loop, I think we are stuck with this low a while unless that front coming south can kick it out. Thoughts?

It depends. I haven't even looked at any model runs today, but low pressure hitting land in the western and northwestern Gulf has been known to intensify nearing landfall in the past. In this case, intensification would be significant rainfall along with a possibly non-tropical tightening IMHO. Some of yesterday's runs (CMC anyway) had a low pressure area creeping toward the TX/OK border which would mean a "Gulf fed" system with the potential for some significant rainfall to continue in SE TX and SW LA.

JMO

Steve

[gatorcane]

yep, your typical weak low over the western GOM. ULL winds are strong and it has run out of room for any development....

[Wx_Warrior]

No flooding yet here in the Golden Triangle but it's only 11:24 am.

[tailgater]

Lower level low looks like it's going nowhere fast, Upper Texas coast all the way to central La. COULD see some major flooding.

[Houstonia]

It looks more like a SW Louisiana storm/NE Texas coast storm to me - I'm not sure I think Hou/Galv will get anything out of this at all...

[JonathanBelles]

It looks like im going to be getting a little rain from this system or quasi-related to this system. Am I seeing a swirl outside of the convection between Houston and San Antonio?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The surface low (1012mb) is currently east of Victoria and south of Houston...probably hugging the coast near Matagorda bay. This is easy to determine b/c Houston is currently getting E/ENE winds and Victoria is getting N winds. If it continues to hug the coast or moves offshore, then I think something could possibly develop. We will just have to see. One thing is for sure though, it sure feels like a TD is hitting today! We have gotten pretty constant 10-20mph E/ENE winds here for the last many hours with fast, low clouds and an occassional gusty shower.

[skysummit]

I had weak TS conditions an hour or so ago with this "feeder band" Winds gusted to 40mph and had squally tropical downpours. Right now it's crossing the New Orleans area and likely causing some minor street flooding.

This was at 11:21 CDT:

[Steve]

>>it sure feels like a TD is hitting today! We have gotten pretty constant 10-20mph E/ENE winds here for the last many hours with fast, low clouds and an occassional gusty shower

Agreed. It's only drizzly downtown at the moment (band is to our west), but the skies are black and grey and hung with low clouds and a 10-15 mph constant breeze. So far, from what I can tell on the doppler estimates, there have been some 2-4" rains in lower Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes; some 5-7" rains in lower Vermilion Parish in SW LA (Abbeville) and some 3-4" around Port Arthur/Orange, TX (Golden Triangle area).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

It's actually a kind of nice tropical day in the City. I'm thinking temps are in the low to mid 80's, breezy and drizzly. Nothing wrong with that IMHO.

Steve

[Steve]

I'ma go outside and see if I can get a decent photo of the sky which I'll link back.

Steve

[AnnularCane]

Is there a lot of lightning with this? I'm getting a little nervous about that.

[skysummit]

Is there a lot of lightning with this? I'm getting a little nervous about that.

There was in it passed through down here. Right now most of the lightning is on the Westbank and south toward southern Jefferson Parish near Grand Isle and down in the Gulf.

[ronjon]

Yes if this system had another day over the GOM it would be a TD or TS by now. As it is, there is a 1012 mb low turning over land SW of Houston. Appears to be drifting slowly west.

[ronjon]

Pretty good rain totals across coastal LA.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=lch&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[jasons2k]

IMO this is looking like a heavy rain event for tonight. A low-level tropical low almost stationary W/SW of Houston and flow right off the GOM. You can see the first bands setting-up now.