Charley Advisories

[southerngale]

Yes, I meant "right" not "left"

I'm going to edit. Thanks for pointing it out.

[Aimless]

I've been reading the forums, checking the various websites and trying to interpret models... just when I think I'm geting the hang of it... I am proven completely wrong... but still tryin'

[Rainband]

I've been reading the forums, checking the various websites and trying to interpret models... just when I think I'm geting the hang of it... I am proven completely wrong... but still tryin'

S2K is a good place to learn.

[Rainband]

Kelly. If somebody pointed out everytime I miss posted. The smiley wouldn't work

[Aimless]

your other right

[mf_dolphin]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the forecast track go back slightly to the right again. While it's hard to tell track from the floaters since their time frame is so short, it does look like Charley might have jogged NW to me as well. We'll be dealing with weebles and woobles for the next 4-5 days at least

[Rainband]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the forecast track go back slightly to the right again. While it's hard to tell track from the floaters since their time frame is so short, it does look like Charley might have jogged NW to me as well. We'll be dealing with weebles and woobles for the next 4-5 days at least

Better get the boat ready!!! Pick me up

[jlauderdal]

Since the LLC of Charley looks to me as if it's been slightly exposed over the past few hours (this is my interpretation using high-res visible sat. imagery), it's been relatively easy to follow its movement. It appears to me the center is getting close to crossing 15N in the vicinity of 69W or so. This would SEEM to indicate a NW jog.

I point this out with all the usual caveats (i.e. storms that are forecast to move 280 degrees may wobble to 290 degrees, then back to 270 and still end up moving 280 in the aggregate). But I thought it was worth commenting on. Any N-ward deviation from the forecast path brings A) a direct Jamaica landfall into play (something that would impact the intensification curve) and B) a possible shift N- and E-ward in the forecast track.

One other thing to consider -- a lot of the old-timer forecasters (From what I've read) used the shape of a storm's "cloud shield" to produce near-term forecast tracks. With Floyd in 1999, for instance, you could see the W end of the overall circular shield start flattening out and "pointing" more N-ward once the storm closed in on the Bahamas -- before the storm actually started turning that way. In Charley's case, the cloud shield appears to be "pointing" NW of the current forecast track.

Bill Kamel on chan 7 in miami mentions the storm shape and quite frnakly its pretty damn effective at least for short term forecasts.

[mf_dolphin]

I'm more than willing for Charley to go visit the panhandle or even Mobile The last thing I need here in the Tampa Bay area is more rain. lol

[Rainband]

I agree Marshall

[TampaFl]

Agree with you mf_dolphin about the rain, we sure could use a couple of "dry" days here. At my home in Brandon just east of Tampa, since july 16th i have measured 24.58" of rain, with 7.84" alraedy for August and for the month of July 17.32" . Also agree about the direction of Charley in relation to the cloud shield. I noticed the NW "point this morning. Do not have a good feeling about this storm. Gut feeling is it may impact the East Gulf this weekend. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Josephine96]

Just north of Tampa...

[Josephine96]

Charley is going to be interesting for Florida.. I'm willing to forecast a landfall somewhere in the Panhandle to as far south as Tampa/St Pete..

It all depends how much Charley strengthens

[lilbump3000]

It all depends on what that trough does over the weekend.

[Rainband]

Agree with you mf_dolphin about the rain, we sure could use a couple of "dry" days here. At my home in Brandon just east of Tampa, since july 16th i have measured 24.58" of rain, with 7.84" alraedy for August and for the month of July 17.32" . Also agree about the direction of Charley in relation to the cloud shield. I noticed the NW "point this morning. Do not have a good feeling about this storm. Gut feeling is it may impact the East Gulf this weekend. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

I hope it turns out to be another georges scenario

[Josephine96]

True.. the trough is more important right now than the storms actual strength

[Derek Ortt]

well,

what a difference 24 hours makes. Congrats to the global models for screwing up yet another shear forecast.

I would now not be surprised if recon finds that Charley is no longer a tropical cyclone. The circulation is not as evident as it was yesterday. The rapid movement, along with the unexpected westerly shear is preventing this from organizing

[Rainband]

Good

[Josephine96]

Not so good.. I want Charley to stay a storm and maybe even grow. I knew it had to slow down..

stupid storm! lol.. Forgive me if I sound nuts

[Steve]

LMAO. I just posted in the DT thread that I've never seen so many people conjuring Charley to their area. I'm not calling anyone a wave monger, wishcaster or anything of the sort. All major fan sites are affected by Charley Fever. But take my word for it - whether you're at TWC, CFHC or S2K, check out the locale of a specific poster in releation to their argument about where Charley is headed. It's a trip.

Steve