Texas Winter 2018-2019

[starsfan65]

GFS better be wrong. Really losing the steam with the first front. I don't have as much knowledge regarding model biases as others so I'll trust the fact it always does this.

even the Euro has gone warmer this weekend but I feel like we've seen this song before from the globals at this range

The CMC lol

http://i65.tinypic.com/o5qntv.png

Why did the GFS and Euro has gone warmer this weekend?

[Brent]

What a lovely snow hole right over Dallas

[Yukon Cornelius]

The models can’t even get the temps right mere hours out. Every high in the last few days has been colder than shown or forecasted.

[Haris]

GFS better be wrong. Really losing the steam with the first front. I don't have as much knowledge regarding model biases as others so I'll trust the fact it always does this.

even the Euro has gone warmer this weekend but I feel like we've seen this song before from the globals at this range

The CMC lol

http://i65.tinypic.com/o5qntv.png

Why did the GFS and Euro has gone warmer this weekend?

Because they love seeing us wx geeks have gray hair before the age of 20 and crush us to death. LOL

[TheProfessor]

The models are all over the place for the midwest tonight lol. The CMC is north and dumps a ton of snow on northern Ohio. The Icon is even further north than that and dumps a ton of ice over the northern Ohio areas that have been painted in the 12" snow band. The GFS shifted south and is far weaker so now that I'm in the target the max snow is only about 6"(Which I'd take without complaints).

[Texas Snow]

This is showing the thickness - the height difference between 1000 millibars and 500 millibars.

Here's a good write up from the NWS: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/thickness

While i am familiar with thickness, I clicked it anyway and it took me down a great rabbit hole only to raise my head and realize I should already be in bed.

I do like like some of the latest trends. Tomorrow is where we in North Texas hope they move in our favor as we will be approaching 3 days out and they should start to tighten on a solution.

[Brent]

the Euro is snowing in Dallas Saturday... this is not a drill

dusting metrowide, inch up towards 380 about 3 inches along the Red River

[Texas Snow]

the Euro is snowing in Dallas Saturday... this is not a drill

dusting metrowide, inch up towards 380 about 3 inches along the Red River

I knew I wouldn’t be able to sleep until the euro was out. Tempering my exitment however because history says when I go to bed optimistic then I wake up to bad model news. But per my post above we are nearing the time they converge and I like the Trends so, maybe...

[Brent]

the Euro has gotten better for DFW each run, who knows

[Lagreeneyes03]

What a lovely snow hole right over Dallas

http://i65.tinypic.com/waqes5.png

If that happens so help me God we'll all be spitting nails and fire here.

[Brent]

free Euro snow map for Saturday

[Cpv17]

I believe the Euro is trending better for next week as well.

[missygirl810]

Waiting on the Hi-Res models to do magic but until then we have this from FWD:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw9J4iJWsAUDaU5.jpg

Ohhhh. I am barely in that one... I think lol

[Brent]

I believe the Euro is trending better for next week as well.

Wednesday was close had some backside snow to the west it appeared

[Cpv17]

I believe the Euro is trending better for next week as well.

Wednesday was close had some backside snow to the west it appeared

It has some snow pretty close to Austin.

[Ntxw]

How predictably unpredictable the runs overnight for the weekend. Making declarations it looks like it will or it won't "snow" at a point when the storm is 3000-4000 miles away is absurd! The shift of hundreds of miles in a few model runs makes one cringe. We are staring down the same issues we had with prior storms. Shifts from really cold, to less cold but deeper storm once closer in.

Anywho a few warm days left.

[bubba hotep]

free Euro snow map for Saturday

http://i67.tinypic.com/mj7rmc.png

I like the 15:1 version better lol

The trend is our friend right now. What happens over the next couple of days?

[wxman57]

Temperature-wise, the Euro has been trending warmer for both Dallas and Houston. It now has a low of 32 and a high of 40 for Dallas on Saturday. For Houston, the Euro has our lowest temp on the north side of 33 degrees. Precip-wise, another close call it would appear as far as snow up there. Cold rain ending as the air gets cold enough for snow. GFS is ridiculously warmer for the D-FW area on Saturday (41-59). Canadian for the middle of next week just looks plain ridiculous. Same solution that one 18Z GFS run had with the big storm in the Gulf and snow all across the Gulf coast. Not likely.

As usual, the models are having a great deal of difficulty figuring out how much cold air will come on down and how thick it will be. I expect more model swings over the next day or so. Perhaps they'll get it right by Friday evening...

[Ralph's Weather]

The typical N trend for storms puts northern TX in a favorable spot next week. Saturday's winter potential is interesting but I'm not buying it yet.

[bubba hotep]

Update from FWD