ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Vdogg]

Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.

So ECMWF has her going inland and then turning South and then East, interesting.

I feel like this particular run of the Euro is an outlier. Not really buying that end loop but up to landfall seems logical.

[opticsguy]

NAM has it slowing down and heading N before landfall.
It's always fun to compare the NAM to the nested models.

[ronjon]

00z Euro ensembles next 120 hrs - most in SC and southward.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091000_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

[PTPatrick]

Seems like both Hmon and hwrf bring this in closer to 940s and 950 and winds of 115 to 120s. Not saying you should pay much attention but nice to see models see something to knock it back a bit from a high end cat 4 at land fall. The wind damage differences at 135 and 115 are significant. Both suck. But only one will start to pull apart solid buildings.

[cjrciadt]

00z Euro ensembles next 120 hrs - most in SC and southward.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091000_ECENS_0-120h_large.png

One over FL Ugh lol

[hurricaneCW]

Seems like both Hmon and hwrf bring this in closer to 940s and 950 and winds of 115 to 120s. Not saying you should pay much attention but nice to see models see something to knock it back a bit from a high end cat 4 at land fall. The wind damage differences at 135 and 115 are significant. Both suck. But only one will start to pull apart solid buildings.

The wind effects will probably equal 5-10% of the total damage, so people shouldn't pay attention to that as much. Freshwater flooding and storm surge are my biggest concerns. The storm surge effects can easily be 1-2 categories greater than the defined wind speeds of a hurricane a la Katrina or Ike.

How big she gets will also be very important, if she's larger than the average hurricane, then the surge affects will be more widespread and greater.

[Ken711]

Seems like both Hmon and hwrf bring this in closer to 940s and 950 and winds of 115 to 120s. Not saying you should pay much attention but nice to see models see something to knock it back a bit from a high end cat 4 at land fall. The wind damage differences at 135 and 115 are significant. Both suck. But only one will start to pull apart solid buildings.

The wind effects will probably equal 5-10% of the total damage, so people shouldn't pay attention to that as much. Freshwater flooding and storm surge are my biggest concerns. The storm surge effects can easily be 1-2 categories greater than the defined wind speeds of a hurricane a la Katrina or Ike.

How big she gets will also be very important, if she's larger than the average hurricane, then the surge affects will be more widespread and greater.

Couldn't Florence expand to the size of Irma or larger?

[PTPatrick]

Seems like both Hmon and hwrf bring this in closer to 940s and 950 and winds of 115 to 120s. Not saying you should pay much attention but nice to see models see something to knock it back a bit from a high end cat 4 at land fall. The wind damage differences at 135 and 115 are significant. Both suck. But only one will start to pull apart solid buildings.

The wind effects will probably equal 5-10% of the total damage, so people shouldn't pay attention to that as much. Freshwater flooding and storm surge are my biggest concerns. The storm surge effects can easily be 1-2 categories greater than the defined wind speeds of a hurricane a la Katrina or Ike.

How big she gets will also be very important, if she's larger than the average hurricane, then the surge affects will be more widespread and greater.

Totally agree. I don’t mean to downplay it. If it’s a large wind field and it has spent time at cat 4 the water will be very bad many miles from landfall. But the wind core will certainly make difference to those near the center.

In some situations it doesn’t. In Katrina the water so bad in Mississippi it was hard to tell what was wind damage at the coast. But inland toward Hattiesburg you could very much tell where the eyewall went.

[meriland29]

Wow...

[dspguy]

Wow...
[img ]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06L_intensity_latest.png[/img]

Seriously. That's a lot of models thinking mid-to-high Cat-4. And not many are showing it weakening prior to landfall the way the GFS is.

[canes92]

An't going to be good for the Carolinas. The infrastructure there isn't as prepared for a major hurricane as compared to FL and lots of tall trees in the Carolinas as well. Hopefully they won't perish like the Keys did. Crazy to think Charlotte and Asheville could get hit by a hurricane.

[meriland29]

So recon is already finding cat 4 winds?

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS is quite a bit east, offshore at 102 hours...

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

[cjrciadt]

915 pressure offshore at 100+

[GTStorm]

12Z GFS
66 hr...ever so slightly NE of 6Z position. Prediction not affected by persistent westward movement, I guess?

[Ken711]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

Probably going to stall offshore for another 48 hours. Now does the Euro trend back east to Wilmington at 12z...have to see, but I think so.

[MGC]

LOL...GFS 900mb at hour 126 off Hatteras.....MGC

[supercane4867]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

NHC probably will toss GFS into trash

[dspguy]

I feel like the GFS is giving people false hope. And these model runs are leaving me very confused. The 12z GFS model at a similar latitude is about 340 miles away from the Euro at the same latitude. And what is even weirder (to me, not a pro!) is that the GFS is at that same latitude forecast hour 66 (or I guess 78 by adjusting for when the Euro ran) while the Euro is at 96. I have no idea what is going on here. I know people say GFS has a poleward bias, but this just seems crazy.