Ivan Advisories

[inotherwords]

Remember Charlie was a Cat 2 after crossing cuba and hit Florida as a Cat 4.

Someone knowledgable last night pointed out, though, that Charley had not peaked at that point, and that Ivan was peaking. That it's not impossible but less likely for it to restrengthen after peaking.

[logybogy]

Let me guess. Faux News.

[tronbunny]

He's interacting more heavily with the ridge now. This is really obvious in both the visible and WV loops if one looks up just over and north of Cuba.

If the ridge were strong, it would accellerate him more westerly. But instead it's weakening, so just slowing him down on his WNW track. The slower he goes, the more time the tip of the ridge has to break down completely. That Atlantic mid to upper low is still headed into the picture and will contribute to that.

Hmmm, because the wind pattern in the ridge is clockwise, I'd expect a conveyor effect to the NNE.
Please help me out with this one.

[Cape Verde]

Can the authorities really force you to evacuate your own property? Obviously they'd like people to think so, using the term "mandatory."<P>But are you subject to arrest if you don't leave? I see some constitutional questions about that.<P>Having said that, nobody should be dumb enough to want to stay.

[ColdWaterConch]

Can the authorities really force you to evacuate your own property? Obviously they'd like people to think so, using the term "mandatory."<P>But are you subject to arrest if you don't leave? I see some constitutional questions about that.<P>Having said that, nobody should be dumb enough to want to stay.

No, they just take your name and next of kin info.

[dhweather]

Well, best of luck to them.


Hey, has he got a camcorder?

[ColdWaterConch]

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

as good as it gets....

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter, I don't believe Eric as saying anything except that he feels the NHC is counting on more shear than he feels there will be based on the data he has seen.

One reason for the 100kts at landfall is the very close proximity of the Hurricane to land for at least the last few hundred miles before that projected landfall point.

One very bad thing about that projected path is the huge amount of storm surge that will be built up along the West coast from way South of Tampa up till landfall, including Tampa Bay. Not a good scenario at all for additional flooding concerns!!! If the current track verifies or at least is held to in the longer term expect more major evacuation orders along the West coast of Florida.

vbhoutex since I have your attention do find the comment made in the 11am discussion interesting? They have never before mention the "possibility" of Ivan continuing his motion in the GOM.

it becomes
uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that
the hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn
north-northeast over Florida. In fact...this has been the case for
the past couple of days. The official forecast does not favor one
scenario more than the other..

I'm surprised no one has mentioned it

[Canelaw99]

Can the authorities really force you to evacuate your own property? Obviously they'd like people to think so, using the term "mandatory."<P>But are you subject to arrest if you don't leave? I see some constitutional questions about that.<P>Having said that, nobody should be dumb enough to want to stay.

While they can't truly force you to leave your home, they won't come get you if you're in trouble. That's what a lot of people don't realize with mandatory evacs. Once that's been issued, there's a certain amount of time when the emergency services will run, but after a bit, you're on your own. For example, in Key West, Publix closed at 9am this morning. That means anyone staying better have enough food for who knows how long because it may be a long time before they can get it again. Also, if the 7 Mile Bridge is damaged, there's no way Key West folks can get to the rest of the Keys except by boat. Kinda scary....

[Skywatch_NC]

Well, best of luck to them.


Hey, has he got a camcorder?

I'm not sure...he might.

[quickychick]

Well, I did see a program where it was shown that a US company has a grid of...I forget what...that can heat the ozone layer in a specific area. The lasers or whatever they were, were also directional. At some point, a test of theirs in Alaska was blamed for causing an odd severe weather outbreak in Florida.

Wish I could remember what the darned things were, but I guess Fidel isn't totally off his rocker

[Lockhart]

I googled Castro and the hurricane. From the few news stories out now with him in them, one thing is clear. He said that the Cubans will work together to help each other after the hurricane--so they won't have to accept aid from the US.

Typical. He takes a natural disaster and somehow manages to insult us in the process. How dare we consider offering aid? I'm not a Miami Cuban (far from it), but that guy sure is a piece of work.

[B-Bear]

I don't recall what station I was watching. But I'm guessing you might not be so old. I am 40, and I can assure you that these types of statements from Castro are nothing new. He has been making bizzare statements like this for as long as I can remember. He is a seriously paranoid person who thinks the world is out to get him. He has been claiming non-stop since the Kennedy administration that the U.S. is trying to assassinate him. Now, we did do that during the Kennedy administration, but I don't believe we've tried since. LOL

He is a serious loon job, and he does indeed say things like this frequently.

[ColdWaterConch]

At least he can have some company...from the Herald:

Among the residents who would not be leaving, according to their employer, were the women at Key West's notorious Scrub Club on Duval Street, which features nude lap dancing and escorts.

THE COMFORT MARKET

Though proprietor Jerry Andrews was at the airport Thursday waiting for a flight back to Colorado, he said he didn't think Ivan would impinge on the home of the club.

''We make a lot of money,'' he said. 'A lot of people will call up and say, `Can you send a girl over?' It's one of those 'Live for today, die tomorrow' things. A lot of people don't want to be alone.''

[Lockhart]

Draining sure is the word. I was on South Beach last night, and every single person I asked about the hurricane had the same response. Total exhaustion. No one even wants to *think* about this thing hitting us.

I can't imagine what this is like for the people in central Florida.

[Johnny]

I remember Hurricane Lili was heading straight towards Jamaica and for some reason did a dance around it and came out the other side back in stride. I remember Joe Bastardi was saying this might happen and it did. I forgot the reasoning behind it. Is he talking about this again with Ivan? Here is the track on Lili. Does her track look familiar?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2002lili1.gif

[Cape Verde]

Thanks for the replies!

[cloud_galaxy]

One word to explain why Cuba hasd no watches or warnings yet:

CASTRO



enough said ...

They have.
As of yesterday, the central provinces are on "alerta" (watch) and the eastern provinces on "alarma" (warning).
The authorities are preparing to evacuate people in their thousands.

see
http://www.cubaweather.org

[quickychick]

A lot of people will call up and say, `Can you send a girl over?'

Boy, I bet those special Hurricane Hoochie Hula rates are expeeeeeensive.

[BayouVenteux]

2 cents worth in reference to Stormcenter's above post...My interpretation of the NHC's comment is that they're referring to a movement north toward the panhandle/"big bend" area...the run up the coast some models have indicated off and on the last 24 -36 hours. I don't think anyone at present expects the WNW movement to continue much beyond the Little Cayman-Cayman Brac / W Cuba slot.