Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

0z Euro is a blowtorch lol

Zero snow below OKC what a disaster

[HockeyTx82]

So how many days out did the models push the cold overnight? Just want to be able to update family as and friends accordingly.

I'm sure they will be asking today.

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro is a blowtorch lol

Zero snow below OKC what a disaster

Oh no, Wxman57 is starting to take COMPLETE Control of the Euro model now.

Just some Ice from 2 waves as far south as Pauls Valley, OK

[Iceresistance]

So how many days out did the models push the cold overnight? Just want to be able to update family as and friends accordingly.

I'm sure they will be asking today.

GFS has the Polar air into Oklahoma by this next Tuesday
Deeper into Texas by the End of this next week
The Euro has the Polar air into Oklahoma by this the Moday after this next week (WAY Delayed!)
(It's into Texas by the end of the Euro model run)

[Wntrwthrguy]

Can anyone explain what is different between the Euro and GFS/Icon/Canadian models that is causing the large discrepancy in the surface temps?

[WacoWx]

Ahhhhh the disappointment of being a weather enthusiast. It’s always 200 hrs out. I know this feeling all too well.

[Portastorm]

Ahhhhh the disappointment of being a weather enthusiast. It’s always 200 hrs out. I know this feeling all too well.

Right! This is why many years ago I used the analogy of Lucy (computer models promising wintry fun) pulling the football (the promise) from Charlie Brown (weather enthusiasts). Looks like Lucy has done it again!

[Yukon Cornelius]

So, are we Winter Canceling it yet?

[Texas Snow]

Nope

[bubba hotep]

Not really any positive trends in the overnight models as both the EPS and GEFS came in warmer and dryer for most of Texas. I guess SE Texas still looks good for some rain and storms

[orangeblood]

Can anyone explain what is different between the Euro and GFS/Icon/Canadian models that is causing the large discrepancy in the surface temps?

A big difference is in in the 500mb flow across the Pacific Northwest...Euro breaks down the East Pacific ridge allowing a portion of the PV to split, with one portion scouring East across southern Canada and the other parking itself over the Pacific NW. This would be a massive nail in the coffin for us in Texas if you’re looking for really cold temps/frozen precip. GFS keeps the PV more or less entirely intact/East pacific ridge stronger, allowing for Arctic Air to spill much further south into the southern plains.

IMO not looking good watching the Euro continue the PV split narrative, thought it would cave to the GFS by now

[gpsnowman]

Happy Super Bowl Sunday!!! The food and beer will start soon, and oh yeah there is a football game later. Back to weather. Man what a wild week of model runs!! Trying to keep up has been mind-numbing at times so today I need a weather break to keep my sanity. I believe we are in a "delayed but not denied" scenario requiring more patience. The cold will get here but not today and Monday will start another wild week of weather watching. Enjoy your Sunday everyone!!! Go Chiefs!!!

[rwfromkansas]

Well, hmm. Not good. One push-back of the cold works, but once it does it again it seems to just keep happening. Uh oh.

[Iceresistance]

Keep in mind that some Texas Winter Storms can be a Surprise.

[wxman57]

I've now gained control of the Canadian model, as well as the European model. I'm getting the GFS to slowly warm. The ICON is a bit stubborn at the end of the run. Trend keeps getting warmer and warmer. However, I've been watching such Arctic outbreaks since the 1970s. I remember a big outbreak in 1993 around Thanksgiving (NFL game had Leon Lett with the bad fumble recovery attempt, losing game for the Cowboys). Models kept trying to drive the Arctic air northward due to unfavorable winds aloft. The American model drove it north to central Oklahoma 3-5 days out. However, the front was well out into the Gulf for that time. Let's see what kind of cold air is moving down the Plains before making any conclusions about next weekend. Maybe by Wed or Thu we'll have better model agreement and a good handle on what's coming.

[HockeyTx82]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif

It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.

Just circling back to this.

[Iceresistance]

I've now gained control of the Canadian model, as well as the European model. I'm getting the GFS to slowly warm. The ICON is a bit stubborn at the end of the run. Trend keeps getting warmer and warmer. However, I've been watching such Arctic outbreaks since the 1970s. I remember a big outbreak in 1993 around Thanksgiving (NFL game had Leon Lett with the bad fumble recovery attempt, losing game for the Cowboys). Models kept trying to drive the Arctic air northward due to unfavorable winds aloft. The American model drove it north to central Oklahoma 3-5 days out. However, the front was well out into the Gulf for that time. Let's see what kind of cold air is moving down the Plains before making any conclusions about next weekend. Maybe by Wed or Thu we'll have better model agreement and a good handle on what's coming.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb7.JPG

And you also took control of Oklahoma's KFOR News 4



EDIT: Keep in mind that you managed to take control of the CMC model in Houston, need to have a LONG way to go to take control of the Southern Plains for the CMC, it's usually NASTY Cold!

[Iceresistance]

COD Meteorology now has the GEFS Ensembles going again!

0z GEFS did not perform very well for snow. (Only up to 354 hours because COD Meteorology are updating & upgrading models there.)



Personal Favorites are only Members 3, 5, 8, & 9.

But, the 6z GEFS Ensembles did much better than 0z.



Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, & 20

(Close calls are Members 14 & 18)

[Cpv17]

If this cold snap doesn’t end up happening and we end up in a torch then this will go down as the biggest bust ever for me. At least that I can remember anyway.

[Rgv20]

Ahhhhh the disappointment of being a weather enthusiast. It’s always 200 hrs out. I know this feeling all too well.

Right! This is why many years ago I used the analogy of Lucy (computer models promising wintry fun) pulling the football (the promise) from Charlie Brown (weather enthusiasts). Looks like Lucy has done it again!

Lucy did not only pull the football but also let the air out

Still many models runs to go but right now the trend is not our friend....for my area with each GFS run it keeps delaying the Arctic Front. ECMWF keep on forecasting on the Splitting/retrograding PV which would be a Death Knell for the cold air to move south.