technikal wrote:sicktght311 wrote:underthwx wrote:I haven't detected an atmosphere of all clear....either here...or with the NHC....as for the media....I dont watch....my information that I pay attention to...is fact based....and yes...Milton is a dangerous cyclone to say the least....and as a result....residents are heeding warnings and leaving the areas that are most vulnerable to Milton's fury.....please accept my comment as respectful to you....peace....
Its a reminder to some folks here who are quick to comment "its weakening", as well as people in the media, to look at things from a larger perspective, and consider that it can play with people's lives. People are impressionable, dumb, and short sighted. Everyone tries to balance risk vs optimism, but its always just a reminder that the only optimistic way to mitigate risk is to avoid it. If its dangerous now, treat it as if it will be just as dangerous in 48 hours
While I agree everyone should still treat it like the threat it is, the forecasted weakening on models like HAFS-B is significant (like +40mb) and that should be communicated to avoid sensationalism. Yes, it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever, but we know with a pretty high degree of confidence that it won’t make landfall at that intensity. It’s in the public interest to (cautiously) let that be known.
I disagree, unless we can agree on what weakening means. Less surge, less wind, less overall impact? The mission statement of the NHC is:
To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.How does mentioning the barometric pressure or wind speed of a storm is weakening while the most dangerous part of the storm, the surge, is not fit into that statement. Katrina was weakening. The NHC doesn't report on the whims of every model.
