Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

The look of the Euro weeklies doesn't bother me too much. Does that mean I'm trying to ignore a model solution which goes against my weather weenie winter hopes? No. I've noticed that the Euro op runs even beyond 7 days are often suspect. And this coming from a guy who hails King Euro on a regular basis. Therefore, the weeklies ... while maybe more reliable than other long range data ... could just as well be wrong.

With the MJO quite possibly heading into a 8-1-2 phase later this month and continued sudden stratospheric warming, not to mention the negative AO consistently progged ... I think we'll see a return to a colder and stormier pattern for the Southern Plains late this month into early February.

[wxman57]

I'm liking the look of the long-range Euro 500mb pattern for late this month. Nice ridge building over the Rockies and slowly drifting east to include Texas. That would mean lots of sunshine and temps not nearly as cold as this week has been. Unfortunately, no temps near 80 degrees yet. This is not atypical of mid to late January (the January thaw). While it's possible the predicted pattern for late January could carry through much of February, it's also possible that it's only a brief respite from the southern stream storm track.

Meanwhile, the wife & I will bundle up and hit the bike trail this weekend. Temps only into the mid 60s means tights and long sleeve thermal jerseys (and a hat and full finger gloves), but it'll seem warm compared to the past few days.

[bqhurricane]

I for one am not looking forward to an early spring/summer. 9 months out of the year it is too hot in Houston with about 5 of them being WAY too hot. I can't wait to move away from the gulf coast and live somewhere where 4 seasons actually have a chance to occur.

[BigB0882]

It wasn't that long ago that the models showed the cold coming into the middle of the country and they were wrong. I'm not going to believe what they show 2 weeks out with the next wave of cold. The pattern may be set but only time will tell. I'll take highs inthe 60s but I'm not accepting 80s in jan and feb! Just no!

[Ntxw]

Since extreme cold is no longer likely for next week, lets see if we can set up a block on Hudson Bay for a snowy pattern. DFW is also overdue for March snow!

Hopefully our beloved month of February will live up to its reputation!

[wxman57]

It wasn't that long ago that the models showed the cold coming into the middle of the country and they were wrong. I'm not going to believe what they show 2 weeks out with the next wave of cold. The pattern may be set but only time will tell. I'll take highs inthe 60s but I'm not accepting 80s in jan and feb! Just no!

I only believe the 2-week forecast when it shows warm air coming. I have this feeling that we've finally turned the corner on winter. It only gets better from here on out. And by better, I mean not as cold as it was this week.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 must like the Euro. No hot weather but better than it was! Will be pretty quiet.

Those of us in Dallas and Texarkana should feel blessed. As bad as last winter was we still saw 0.3 inches and this winter has been very good and we know the previous two winters before that. Parts of Collin county have seen 7+ inches this winter! There are places much much further north that have gone 200-300 days without measurable snow and parts of the southeast busted on yesterday's storm. For being so far south (We sit roughly the latitude of Macon, GA) we've been blessed compared to others in that department. Be glad you don't live in Atlanta where a thousand feet base gives no help.

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B:

@BigJoeBastardi: warning clients set upsimilar to feb 07,jan 77 as vortex locks over e NAMER feb 1-15 l 77,mid 4cst r 07 http://t.co/ucn8tqrw

@BigJoeBastardi: MJO going from phase 6 Winter protection to Phase 8 winter Affection with cold advection Great run up to Valentines Day for Snuggle bunnies

[aggiecutter]

Some encouraging news from the NCEP Ensembles for the last of the month. Above normal heights west and east coast, trough in the central U.S. and blocking over the top.

NCEP ENSEMBLES 1/18/13
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images ... 2_usbg.gif

[orangeblood]

Some encouraging news from the NCEP Ensembles for the last of the month. Above normal heights west and east coast, trough in the central U.S. and blocking over the top.

NCEP ENSEMBLES 1/18/13
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images ... 2_usbg.gif

I did notice that aggiecutter but the problem is that it's very progressive with this pattern...the west coast ridge keeps on progressing through to the intermountain west, making any cold air very transient. Hopefully, it's wrong and the central conus trough can lock in!! That's what we should keep an eye on over the next few days

[Ntxw]

Lower heights in Alaska isn't conducive to prolonged cold, +EPO. Still think 28th-Feb 2nd we'll flush the pattern with a system when heights rise over that region. Until then maybe get a stormy pattern but can't lock in cold yet with semizonal flow

[somethingfunny]

If you give me a choice between an active northern jet bringing lots of cold air to Texas, or an active southern jet bringing lots of moisture to Texas, I'll take the moisture every time.



Put them together and it's just bonus. We've had a lot of bonus lately, y'all have gotta appreciate that we're in the best string of snowy winters since the 1970s right now.

[Snowman67]

I'm liking the look of the long-range Euro 500mb pattern for late this month. Nice ridge building over the Rockies and slowly drifting east to include Texas. That would mean lots of sunshine and temps not nearly as cold as this week has been. Unfortunately, no temps near 80 degrees yet. This is not atypical of mid to late January (the January thaw). While it's possible the predicted pattern for late January could carry through much of February, it's also possible that it's only a brief respite from the southern stream storm track.

Meanwhile, the wife & I will bundle up and hit the bike trail this weekend. Temps only into the mid 60s means tights and long sleeve thermal jerseys (and a hat and full finger gloves), but it'll seem warm compared to the past few days.

Sounds like you'll be dressed more appropriately for a January day at Lambeau Field rather than a bike ride in Houston...

[NDG]

So is this all the SSW's effects has for the deep south? Nothing close to any record breaking like many were calling for.
Is weird how in the last decade we have not seen the Arctic blasts like the 70s & 80s but snow events have become more frequent.

[South Texas Storms]

If you give me a choice between an active northern jet bringing lots of cold air to Texas, or an active southern jet bringing lots of moisture to Texas, I'll take the moisture every time.

http://i.imgur.com/IWDQt.png

Put them together and it's just bonus. We've had a lot of bonus lately, y'all have gotta appreciate that we're in the best string of snowy winters since the 1970s right now.

I totally agree with you. I would take the moisture every time.

[Ntxw]

So is this all the SSW's effects has for the deep south? Nothing close to any record breaking like many were calling for.
Is weird how in the last decade we have not seen the Arctic blasts like the 70s & 80s but snow events have become more frequent.

There is still record cold, it's aiming for the eastern Canadian provinces and northeastern US. That's the result of teleconnections not SSW at fault, which did deliver the air.

[NDG]

So is this all the SSW's effects has for the deep south? Nothing close to any record breaking like many were calling for.
Is weird how in the last decade we have not seen the Arctic blasts like the 70s & 80s but snow events have become more frequent.

There is still record cold, it's aiming for the eastern Canadian provinces and northeastern US. That's the result of teleconnections not SSW at fault, which did deliver the air.

Which proves my point on the myth like thinking that if Arctic air is over Canada that its core would automatically push to the deep south, teloconnections dictate its movement.

[dhweather]

So is this all the SSW's effects has for the deep south? Nothing close to any record breaking like many were calling for.
Is weird how in the last decade we have not seen the Arctic blasts like the 70s & 80s but snow events have become more frequent.

Well, we had the arctic blasts in the 70's and 80's , but then since the 90's, we've been in the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and we've really not had record cold outbreaks. Pick your poison, super cold winters or very active tropical seasons.

[Ntxw]

Which proves my point on the myth like thinking that if Arctic air is over Canada that its core would automatically push to the deep south, teloconnections dictate its movement.

I don't recall anyone calling for that myth like thinking. Everyone who gave their thoughts said the pattern had potential looking at various ideas. You can't expect it to be pinpointed three weeks out to the tee.

[NDG]

Which proves my point on the myth like thinking that if Arctic air is over Canada that its core would automatically push to the deep south, teloconnections dictate its movement.

I don't recall anyone calling for that myth like thinking. Everyone who gave their thoughts said the pattern had potential looking at various ideas. You can't expect it to be pinpointed three weeks out to the tee.

I am not saying that it is anybody from this site or pointing fingers at anybody at this site, maybe there is or maybe there are not. I am just saying that many think that way out there.
There was a lot of noise from a lot a people out there mentioning '83, '85.....like winters to come down to the deep south because of the SSW.